SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Dami]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Considering the amount of damage/disruption this system has already caused, I'm surprised it hasn't been named?

oh I could give it a few names.

[SLEETY]

If the front is slow moving their better chance of rain turning to snow

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

It's not fair on newbies when they are trying to learn about the weather 

he comments on the GEFS and to be fair, they usually show mild!

[snoangel]

43 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Tonight? do you know something I don't

Doh.  Wishing my life away!

 

[Ben Lewis]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154435772194209&id=287501884208

Meto chief exec "could be that we have blizzard conditions with 15cm of snow possible in SE" 

"So many different options" 

[plumehead]

8 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

We'll that depends on your location plumehead...stick it in your profile or signature for future reference

Ooops thanks for the reminder. Based on what i've seen in this and the model forum I would say 16% sounds very low?

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154435772194209&id=287501884208

Meto chief exec "could be that we have blizzard conditions with 15cm of snow possible in SE" 

"So many different options" 

I daren't look at the Excess's front page...Wall of Snow to Hit London: 50ft Snowdrifts Coming Soon!

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ed Stone
Speeling!

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154435772194209&id=287501884208

Meto chief exec "could be that we have blizzard conditions with 15cm of snow possible in SE" 

"So many different options" 

Yes, could happen and the winds look quite nasty for a short time. Though I doubt we'll get 15cm of snow, maybe 1cm of slush going by past experience.

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154435772194209&id=287501884208

Meto chief exec "could be that we have blizzard conditions with 15cm of snow possible in SE" 

"So many different options" 

Think ive just wet myself!

 

[Kent Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, plumehead said:

Ooops thanks for the reminder. Based on what i've seen in this and the model forum I would say 16% sounds very low?

I'd say that's low, I think most of us have a 25% chance of seeing snow, the question is how heavy or as much, that's a total different ball game.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I'd say that's low, I think most of us have a 25% chance of seeing snow, the question is how heavy or as much, that's a total different ball game.

Personally think we will all see falling snow - the big question is whether it sticks and how much.

We also have a good chance on Friday morning and given projected temps for next week, anything that falls should stick around for a while.

 

[Kent Blizzard]

Sorry if this has already been posted..

Regional forecast for London & South East England

Windy and cold, but mainly dry.

This Evening and Tonight:

Any showers will die away through the evening to leave the rest of the night dry but fairly cloudy. It will remain windy and cold, with a frost in places. Minimum Temperature2 °C.

Thursday:

Heavy rain spreading eastwards through the morning, probably turning to sleet or snow during the afternoon, this potentially heavy. Clearing later in the evening, then with clear skies, turning icy. Maximum Temperature6 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Windy Friday with sunshine and snow showers, mainly in the east. Winds easing through Saturday, isolated showers continuing. Cloudy Sunday with patchy rain or sleet. Remaining cold with widespread frosts.

Updated at: 1408 on Wed 11 Jan 2017

Meto Regional

 

[Laurence Hill]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

It isn't as simple as that lets be honest, he posts in a repetitive way that is trying to provoke a reaction and is notorious for it.

If this has been discussed before I apologise.

we need a system of classifying a contributor and this classification should appear as part of his ID.  The sort of classification could be controlled by the moderators and doesn't necessarily have to apply to all contributors.  For instance, I haven't a clue how the weather works so would not expect to be included.  But, a frequent contributor whose reason for life is to wind up people  should be advertised as such.  As noted in a previous post, this forum is also for people who have an interest in the weather but are not knowledgeable about its complexities.

[Kent Blizzard]

A reminder for those that get annoyed with certain members, if you don't wish to view the rubbish they post use the ignore feature....can be found by your using name, click the little arrow ( on laptop so don't know about other devices ), then click ignore list and then you can add them.

...makes it relaxing.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Tom Jarvis]

Does Steve Murr still post on here?? Do we think that evaporative cooling could paly a mojour role in the possible event tomorrow??

[Seasonality]

Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

Does Steve Murr still post on here?? Do we think that evaporative cooling could paly a mojour role in the possible event tomorrow??

He still posts on the model thread quite a bit. In an event with marginal air temps and heavy precipitation then evaporative cooling could play a role but I think it also requires light winds, so all dependent on particular conditions at your location!

[Seasonality]

London just went from snow to sleet on the Met Office web page!

[Day10]

Just in from our lovely met person at work...

This is the current assessment but, with the uncertainty surrounding this event, the most likely outcome may change, so regular updates will be issued.

 

There is low confidence of a high impact event occurring over the S of the UK as a low pressure system tracks E across the country.  This is due to affect the London area between 1500-2100Z with Bristol also likely to be affected by sleet/wet snow from 12Z.

 

These values are for the SE in general and may vary slightly between individual airports (LGW, LTN, STN, SEN).

 

There is a 80-90% chance of heavy rain turning to wet snow and a 60% chance of 0-2cm accumulations of wet snow.

 

Should the low pressure deepen further there is a 40% of 2-5cm accumulations with an added risk of strong winds with variable wind directions (gusting 35-45KT).  This may lead to blizzard conditions, particularly at LGW, and an increased risk of snow accumulations at N London airports.    The least likely scenario (10-20%) is for 5-10cm accumulations with localized 45+KT gusts.

 

There is a risk of BHX being at risk, but the position of the northern edge of the front is uncertain.

 

After the weather system clears, whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow, the temperature will drop sharply to give a widespread ice risk overnight and into Friday.

 

These values may change in the run up to the event so any public weather enquiries are best directed to the Met Office Severe weather warning page which is updated regularly: www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

London just went from snow to sleet on the Met Office web page!

Probably because of a shift north. Although I suspect it will come down too a nowcast anyway.

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, bluekipper said:

Just in from our lovely met person at work...

This is the current assessment but, with the uncertainty surrounding this event, the most likely outcome may change, so regular updates will be issued.

 

There is low confidence of a high impact event occurring over the S of the UK as a low pressure system tracks E across the country.  This is due to affect the London area between 1500-2100Z with Bristol also likely to be affected by sleet/wet snow from 12Z.

 

These values are for the SE in general and may vary slightly between individual airports (LGW, LTN, STN, SEN).

 

There is a 80-90% chance of heavy rain turning to wet snow and a 60% chance of 0-2cm accumulations of wet snow.

 

Should the low pressure deepen further there is a 40% of 2-5cm accumulations with an added risk of strong winds with variable wind directions (gusting 35-45KT).  This may lead to blizzard conditions, particularly at LGW, and an increased risk of snow accumulations at N London airports.    The least likely scenario (10-20%) is for 5-10cm accumulations with localized 45+KT gusts.

 

There is a risk of BHX being at risk, but the position of the northern edge of the front is uncertain.

 

After the weather system clears, whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow, the temperature will drop sharply to give a widespread ice risk overnight and into Friday.

 

These values may change in the run up to the event so any public weather enquiries are best directed to the Met Office Severe weather warning page which is updated regularly: www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

 

What sort of preparations do the airports make in these situations?

[Southender]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Probably because of a shift north. Although I suspect it will come down too a nowcast anyway.

Yep.

I think for us in this region, what we really want is for it to deepen and nudge further south reducing the marginality a touch.

Either way it is going to rain tomorrow, there is no getting away from that. It is how quickly the colder air can be sucked in and turn it to snow is what we need to nail down. To be honest I think it is going to be a case of looking out your window as you say.

All that said, you watch it all slip south and hammer Northern France now.

[Ben Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Probably because of a shift north. Although I suspect it will come down too a nowcast anyway.

I'm further south and my symbols have changed from heavy snow to sleet too.

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ben Blizzard

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

What sort of preparations do the airports make in these situations?

I'm not too sure, S; but frozen slush/black ice can form in minutes. I was delayed at Inversneckie/Dalcross one time, as the plane (and, presumably, the runway) had to be continually de-iced. And that was wet snow!

[abruzzi spur]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

What sort of preparations do the airports make in these situations?

It's just like in Airplane. Someone in the tower runs around screaming  'its a twister, it's a twister' then they unplug the power so the lights go out on all runways.

[exodus]

I'm in Stansted and it still has us down for heavy snow.