SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Jimmyh]

so the mad thread hmm. nay sayers followed closely by more interesting folk whom captivate the audience with their knowledge and info, nick S Steve Murr Nick F to name but a few.

weather will do what weather wants to do no matter what our forecast models, prime number and subtracted tell us.

wont be on here much until something happens, I readily hope it is better than what may happen we shall see.

 

[snow freak]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I agree with you, WB...Away from major towns, I've seen sleet (in the form of ready-made slush!) settle, on wet ground; whereas, at other times (usually within large conurbations?) snow that fell on dry ground has not...

As you say, given the right ambient conditions (ground temp, DB and WB temps) falling snow will have no option but to settle...The melting point of ice is pretty constant??

snow call fall in temperatures up to 7c but tends to settle only when temperatures are 3c or less.  Likewise rain can still fall when the temperature is less than 3c too, albeit icy rain. 

[SLEETY]

What's wrong with the model thread ,just been reading it ,seems ok in there to me ,gosh people too sensitive if they think it's not good there lol

[Uxbridge90]

6 minutes ago, Southender said:

I think the likely outcome is rain with a spell of snow on the back edge. Little chance of accumulations. Still, will be nice to see some flakes at last!

Exactly this, unfortunately there's going to be a few disappointed people who have built up tomorrow to be much more than it is.

[Methuselah]

Just now, SLEETY said:

What's wrong with the model thread ,just been reading it ,seems ok in there to me ,gosh people too sensitive if they think it's not good there lol

I can recall rain falling at -6C. But that was the 1963 ice storm!

[Seasonality]

23 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

wish me luck I am venturing into the MAD thread

You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious...

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

What's wrong with the model thread ,just been reading it ,seems ok in there to me ,gosh people too sensitive if they think it's not good there lol

It is fine now, but on occasion there can be some rather silly behaviour in there... That is all I shall say.

[Kent Blizzard]

So...has anyone bothered to look past tomorrow night and look at Friday Morning yet?  

[loafer]

I have....

[Kent Blizzard]

Just now, loafer said:

I have....

[SLEETY]

Ok there is one person who winds me up,always somehow sees mild in the charts even if they show - 20 hpa,and always post d10 - 16 charts ,even though they never verify

[Southender]

9 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

So...has anyone bothered to look past tomorrow night and look at Friday Morning yet?  

Yep.

More chance of "accumulating" snow than Thurs afternoon/eve that is for sure, especially further North & East in the region and away from immediate coasts, as always.

Hopefully most of us will have a cm laying on the ground by sunrise Fri, although if something can spoil that it usually will. There will be a mild sector of air coming down with the snow band on Fri morning, so no doubt that will leave some of us on the wrong side of marginal.

I think that band will chop and change its positioning for the next 24/36hrs so best leave it to the radar. A nudge east wouldn't be a bad thing as that should take the mild sector out over the North Sea leaving all of us with a shot at proper snow on Fri morn, with a better chance of settling than Thurs. Albeit perhaps only a dusting of 1cm.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Southender

[Dami]

mmm. I still wonder where the mum who told me about snow on friday got her infos as i never had a stiff of anything then. But hey ho there it is. 

[Lampostwatcher]

yes friday looks very interesting in the morning

[Kent Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

mmm. I still wonder where the mum who told me about snow on friday got her infos as i never had a stiff of anything then. But hey ho there it is. 

Most probably a phone app as if like mine it has seemed to be ahead of the game compared to the models releasing the info,

[Dami]

2 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Most probably a phone app as if like mine it has seemed to be ahead of the game compared to the models releasing the info,

Doesn't make much sense that an app had been on about snow thurs and fri and its only now that Friday is becoming an eye opener. Have seen it written here not to take much notice of them. 

[onepingonly]

Blurry screen grab from the live Met Office Facebook video. This was looking at the chief forecasters screen so it's as up to date & informed as I think we can get but shows snow (in blue) on the trailing edge. 

However they were very very clear that no one there has a real clue what will happen. 

[Jo Farrow]

Warning tonight for Suffolk coast and concerns for Friday  for eastern Britain with surge in North Sea, stormy N/NW winds https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/5-day-flood-risk

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

57 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Jeez can't get my links to work, can someone tell me if the Euro4 is out yet please

Hi! This is the latest version from the 06Z run. Still looking pretty good for you guys from the mid to late afternoon period - especially if you're on higher ground (except possibly the extreme South towards the coasts).

...although I suspect as the Low pulls away East, even the extreme South may see this becoming wintry as the chilly North-Westerly winds give the less cold air the boot! Very slight Northwards adjustments compared to the 00Z run, though:

So certainly will come to one of those moments where a lot of window starring will be neccesary on the day itself. Consiering how marginal it's looking as it is, let's hope for those of you drooling with snowy excitement that the Low won't track any further North than what some of the models are suggesting. I know it's been a while since some of you have seen the white stuff; the South-Eastern UK snow shield could do with being put through the shredder!

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

Blurry screen grab from the live Met Office Facebook video. This was looking at the chief forecasters screen so it's as up to date & informed as I think we can get but shows snow (in blue) on the trailing edge. 

However they were very very clear that no one there has a real clue what will happen. 

The bigger concern from that chart is the strength of the wind, especially over the capital. Could be an hour or so of stormy gusts.

[Kent Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Dami said:

Doesn't make much sense that an app had been on about snow thurs and fri and its only now that Friday is becoming an eye opener. Have seen it written here not to take much notice of them. 

It doesn't does it however my app has been showing it since late last night for Friday morning.

BBC weather app it is, but also whoever google search use they been showing it since Tuesday

Edited January 11, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Southender]

FLOODING IS EXPECTED

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED

Blythburgh and marshes upstream of A12

Felixstowe Ferry & Bawdsey Quay

Isolated riverside properties on the Deben Estuary

North Bank of the Humber Estuary at Hessle Foreshore

North Sea at Sandsend

Southwold and surrounding marshes

Edited January 11, 2017 by Southender

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

The bigger concern from that chart is the strength of the wind, especially over the capital. Could be an hour or so of stormy gusts.

Considering the amount of damage/disruption this system has already caused, I'm surprised it hasn't been named?

[plumehead]

I'm seeing online predications of snow falling at only 16%. Is this a true reflection? What would you say the percentage chance is?

[Kent Blizzard]

Just now, plumehead said:

I'm seeing online predications of snow falling at only 16%. Is this a true reflection? What would you say the percentage chance is?

We'll that depends on your location plumehead...stick it in your profile or signature for future reference