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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


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On 08/11/2017 at 19:20, keithlucky said:

With colder than normal pacific with the effect of El Nina  GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COLDER THAN AVERAGE NOVEBER met update There is an increasing signal that blocked patterns will become more dominant throughout this period. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions under the influence of high pressure. There will still be spells of rain and showers as frontal systems move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. There is also an increasing risk of snow at times, more especially in the north. Temperatures will initially be near or slightly below normal but with an increased chance of below normal temperatures later in the period, with an increased likelihood of overnight frosts.

La ninais back as Pacific TEMPERATURES TAKE A PLUNGE lIAM DUTTON QUOTE ON cold spell Still consistent signals from various computer models for a blocking area of high pressure to build over Greenland later in November. This would increase the chance of cold weather across the UK with a N to NE wind. Is winter coming? Watch this space...

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

I'm happy now I've had my fix ? There's a nice covering on the hills  

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

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Growing excitement in the model thread today. (They'll probably be back to wrist slitting tomorrow!)

Looks like some kind of Atlantic block is on the cards for this weekend onwards. Some early talk of Northerly air and white stuff.

Could this be the year when we are eventually 'the right side of marginal' in Wales? Time will tell.

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On 12/11/2017 at 19:21, keithlucky said:

La ninais back as Pacific TEMPERATURES TAKE A PLUNGE lIAM DUTTON QUOTE ON cold spell Still consistent signals from various computer models for a blocking area of high pressure to build over Greenland later in November. This would increase the chance of cold weather across the UK with a N to NE wind. Is winter coming? Watch this space...

La nina effects now showing  South Pacific pretty coldimage.thumb.png.5e6598aedafa08c8e872e19e60eea0c5.png

Edited by keithlucky
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1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

So what are our chances of the White stuff this weekend and into next week ' your thoughts please .

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A cold wintry outlook with uppers not quite low enough atm ,more details near the time ,but plenty of shower activity forcasted from Saturday to at least Tuesday with a cold nothwest wind .

 

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Been raining most of the afternoon here but now getting much heavier. 

Screenshot_20171122-010738.thumb.png.1abd077c7e1bb8e14e68eb2e56b904aa.png

Forecast looks set to give us plenty more well into tomorrow (Wednesday) and gales along with it.

Edited by kar999
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Really strong wind now. Just had a massive gust and lost the refuse bins....

Checked the Netweather MAX Gusts chart and yep, Capel Curig already top of the leaderboard at 61mph.

 

Edited by kar999
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It's been very windy all night here and some heavy rain already this morning.  I don't think we are in the direct firing line but I am still expecting some stormy conditions later.  I hope we don't get too much rain though - seems to have been raining here now almost non stop since Sunday.  Wouldn't it be nice to get some snow instead even if it doesn't settle!  :cold:

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Capel Curig topped 84mph now with other nearby stations showing 50/60 + gusts. 

Almost as bad as Ophelia here and potentially longer lasting as it's been blowing a hoolie since the early hours..... and still is.

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About a week ago I posted that today was not looking a good day to be on the Rosslare ferry, based on the GFS charts that day.  They certainly had the windy conditions well forecasted!  We've taken a hammering here over the last two hours with strong gusts accompanied by heavy rain at times.  I dont have a wind speed guage but local weather stations have reported 64mph gusts nearby.  I can hear the wind doing its best to remove the slates from my roof but hopefully so far they all resisted heroically.  Must start to slacken off soon but I think there is more to come for Anglesey and the north west.  Can we hope for some less violent but more wintry weather over the coming few days??  :cold: 

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Nice to see that circular ball of fire again in the sky after days of horrendous rain. Hopefully we get some nice crisp days in the next couple of weeks to start winter off and maybe a surprise wintry shower or two. Charts screem cold but the uppers aren't going to be cold enough for lower areas by the looks of things for us southerners unless the precipitation comes in the night. Happy winter season my fellow Welsh folk 

Edited by Pembroke Dangler
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24 minutes ago, andymusic said:

wintry showers a possible over the next few days then further into next week the possibility of more general snow as temps dip lower - gfs-2-174.png?12

Could be very interesting in the Presellis if that comes off....  Will have to keep watching this!

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Hi, fellow snow fiends.

There's quite a lot of interest in the snow charts over the next week or so for us in Wales. It's often easy to forget that after Atlantic-driven frontal events, it's North-Northwesterlies with their potential for plentiful showers and troughs that prove the most fruitful setups for Wales, even for the Southeast which is more sheltered thanks to the Brecon Beacons. Wales is a mountainous peninsula which is why we tend to do better for snow than the rest of Southern Britain. It was a potent streamer on a N-NWly that delivered well over 30cm of snow in the Valleys and Cardiff on December 17th, 2010. Let's hope for a repeat in the coming weeks.

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1 hour ago, Blackjack said:

Just when I really don’t need cold and snow. Moving house on the 1st Dec. 

Where are you moving to? And most importantly, is it at a higher or lower elevation? :D

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Add to below some "wintry" showers over night -

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen & Wrexham valid from 1700 Fri 24 Nov to 1000 Sat 25 Nov
 
A band of rain, sleet and snow showers will move from the northwest to southeast across the yellow area through Friday, clearing during the early hours of Saturday, followed by further wintry showers. Icy patches are likely to form on untreated surfaces as temperatures fall. 1-2 cm snow may accumulate above about 200 m by Saturday morning with with 2-5 cm possible above 300m. Small amounts of snow are possible at low levels inland, mostly in the north.
Edited by andymusic
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2 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

Where are you moving to? And most importantly, is it at a higher or lower elevation? :D

A grand total 10m higher to the dizzying heights of 111m in Crickhowell. Although snow potential is better than Abergavenny. 

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