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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


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6 hours ago, Coilspring said:

Dont go in the mad thread. They are either throwing their towels in or lying on them thinking summers arrived. Too busy moaning to notice its minus 1 outside. Winters not done yet. Ok, it may take a week or two but it's not done

..Gritters gone by here half hour ago....

 

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

I'm happy now I've had my fix ? There's a nice covering on the hills  

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

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10 hours ago, Coilspring said:

Dont go in the mad thread. They are either throwing their towels in or lying on them thinking summers arrived. Too busy moaning to notice its minus 1 outside. Winters not done yet. Ok, it may take a week or two but it's not done

..

I had a gander in there last night ? , I agree winter is not done yet ! 

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What a contrast in conditions over just twelve hours today!  A dull, overcast, drizzly start and quite a chilly wind blowing at 6:00am but by 6:00pm it has turned dry, clear and cloudless, the wind has dropped, and the temperature feels like April.  As far as I am concerned these conditions can hang around as long as they like.  Spring - BRING IT ON!   I can definitely wait until November for winter to show itself again.

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Outlook for the weekend according to the ECM:-  Cloud cover starts to increase from the west on Saturday morning and by 10:00am has reached most parts although the far south east remains clear at this time:

:image.thumb.png.45fb66bc722f4112cd5c830001c1ef85.png

Cloudy conditions continue and light rain moves into the far west by 4:00pm:

image.thumb.png.8888769e4f68bcb2745a0d72b98db82c.png

The rain doesn't get very far and has almost disappeared by 5:00pm but still affecting Pembrokeshire, Anglesey and the Llyn Peninsula:

image.thumb.png.8efddd7d252bceca88ed703d01a78916.png

but by 12:00noon Sunday everywhere should be enjoying some sunshine again:

image.thumb.png.3ab7d8be2ffc773a5473ad53cf32906f.png

 

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Well it's been a long slow process but we do now have 100% cloud cover as predicted.  It also looks likely that we will get some rain judging by the look of the clouds.  We won't be seeing the sun here again until tomorrow - that's for sure.  But plenty of sunny, mild weather being promised through next week for Wales before the Atlantic gets its act together and brings stronger westerly winds back, and the likelihood of rain, by next weekend.

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It's reached 20.3 °C at Trawsgoed, Ceredigion making it the UK's warmest February day on record. It's also the first time we've recorded over 20 degrees in winter Met Office

So new Welsh record (and UK record )

febrecords4a.jpg

Edited by Jo Farrow
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3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's reached 20.3 °C at Trawsgoed, Ceredigion making it the UK's warmest February day on record. It's also the first time we've recorded over 20 degrees in winter Met Office

So new Welsh record (and UK record )

febrecords4a.jpg

A bit higher at 20.6C (69F) looks to be the highest from the hourly obs, will have to wait for the NCMs tomorrow at 9am but quite remarkable. So new UK, Welsh and English Feb records and for Jersey. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9018-uk-temperatures-who-takes-the-official-weather-observations-and-how 

febrecords6.jpg

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Astonishing weather today and yesterday - temperatures here slightly had the edge taken off because of the breeze but this is probably because we are fairly exposed to the wind.  Even so, great weather for February but I am afraid we will be made to pay for it in March.  Unfortunately there is still plenty of time left for storms and colder conditions to occur - and they probably will - which is bad news for the early flowers and bees - and even butterflies - which have been encouraged to show themselves sooner than they should have done.  However, if we can get through the next two months without a severe or prolonged cold and frosty spell then the growing season will have been given a good start this year.

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On 26/02/2019 at 16:04, Sky Full said:

Astonishing weather today and yesterday - temperatures here slightly had the edge taken off because of the breeze but this is probably because we are fairly exposed to the wind.  Even so, great weather for February but I am afraid we will be made to pay for it in March.  Unfortunately there is still plenty of time left for storms and colder conditions to occur - and they probably will - which is bad news for the early flowers and bees - and even butterflies - which have been encouraged to show themselves sooner than they should have done.  However, if we can get through the next two months without a severe or prolonged cold and frosty spell then the growing season will have been given a good start this year.

I’d be mega grateful if anyone has any predictions / thoughts for March .  It’s super dry here , and as you mentioned , bees and butterflies are emerging . Luckily the gorse is in flower , or there wouldn’t be any nectar at all on the farm. 

I’m thinking of turning the cows out during the day around the 10th March , and was actually thinking winter was over and we’d been lucky ! 

 

 

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22 hours ago, Penfoel said:

I’d be mega grateful if anyone has any predictions / thoughts for March .  It’s super dry here , and as you mentioned , bees and butterflies are emerging . Luckily the gorse is in flower , or there wouldn’t be any nectar at all on the farm. 

I’m thinking of turning the cows out during the day around the 10th March , and was actually thinking winter was over and we’d been lucky ! 

Based on what I've seen of them, there is almost no chance of any weather model giving an accurate prediction of what the weather will be like in 10 days, because we can get wild swings in the weather in seven days or less.  However, it looks like we are in for 7-10 days of westerlies bringing a series of low pressure systems our way.  There is likely to be a lot of rain in our area so the ground will not be dry for long, and this should get the grass growing again. There could be some gales at times but there are no strong signals for a return of really cold weather as things stand.  Of course, any of these low pressure systems could wind themselves up and draw air from the north for a day or two.  This might give some people a frost and even a little snow but my personal opinion is that west Wales is going to see some average temperatures for at least a couple of weeks with windy and wet conditions at times before some warmer and more settled weather comes along towards the end of the month.

Please don't take my word for it.....:oldsmile:

Best advice would be wait for another week before making any decisions!  

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On 28 February 2019 at 19:29, Loadsa2000 said:

Caravan site in St Davids opens tomorrow and I cant wait to have a weekend down my van

Best make sure it's well anchored to the ground!  All the weather models are predicting gales on Sunday afternoon with gusts exceeding 60mph for west Wales and Pembrokeshire in particular.  This is the Arpege - the most pessimistic of the lot - which is promising 70-80mph gusts between 10:00pm and midnight.....

image.thumb.png.163ddea6c6b863d2e1e60bb49cc53343.png

Other parts of Wales can also expect high winds Sunday afternoon but the west coast is likely to see the most 'exhilerating' conditions....  Some heavy rain also expected so not a nice end to the week really. 

 

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Storm Freya :  GFS has upped the ante this morning regarding maximum wind gusts on Sunday afternoon - now showing 70mph (110kmh) gusts widely across west Wales but just off the west coast of Pembrokeshire its says 90mph (143kmh) gusts are possible:

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Not a day to be out in a boat of any size in the Irish Sea....  People say the GFS overdoes these predictions so we will have to wait and see just what wind speeds are achieved and what course the storm takes but at least by Monday conditions should have eased considerably.

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On ‎01‎/‎03‎/‎2019 at 21:54, Sky Full said:

Best make sure it's well anchored to the ground!  All the weather models are predicting gales on Sunday afternoon with gusts exceeding 60mph for west Wales and Pembrokeshire in particular.  This is the Arpege - the most pessimistic of the lot - which is promising 70-80mph gusts between 10:00pm and midnight.....

image.thumb.png.163ddea6c6b863d2e1e60bb49cc53343.png

Other parts of Wales can also expect high winds Sunday afternoon but the west coast is likely to see the most 'exhilerating' conditions....  Some heavy rain also expected so not a nice end to the week really. 

 

well just got back home, good to say van survived the winter now for the spring. left at 12 ish blowing a hooley and hammering down with rain, got soaked walking the dogs but they didn't seem to care

Back in  Caerphilly dry and the trees in the wood behind me hardly moving

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1 hour ago, AnthonyMcquade7 said:

It's picked up here the last hour really going for it .been watching the porthcawl web cam waves getting bigger there.

Blowing a Hoolie here......

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6 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

well just got back home, good to say van survived the winter now for the spring. left at 12 ish blowing a hooley and hammering down with rain, got soaked walking the dogs but they didn't seem to care

Back in  Caerphilly dry and the trees in the wood behind me hardly moving

Glad you got back OK.  We also had a lot of rain today but although it was quite noisy here for two or three hours I didn't think the storm was as bad as it could have been.  No damage as far as I can see and it's all gone quiet now so somewhere else must be taking a battering instead.   Hope you had a great St David's weekend despite the weather - impressed you walked the dogs in the rain!

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9 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Glad you got back OK.  We also had a lot of rain today but although it was quite noisy here for two or three hours I didn't think the storm was as bad as it could have been.  No damage as far as I can see and it's all gone quiet now so somewhere else must be taking a battering instead.   Hope you had a great St David's weekend despite the weather - impressed you walked the dogs in the rain!

Good to know, the wind picked up here last night mother in law who lives opposite had her plastic facia board ripped off her bungalow. Off to Reading (work) so she will have to wait until I get home to sort.

Having 3 Cocker Spaniels and a pointer we have to take them out regardless, otherwise they go stir crazy. The only time we struggle is when we have heavy snow. Down the van they usually go out twice three times a day. Its good having the walks on your doorstep and the old runway in St Davids 

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Given there's a MetOffice weather warning out for rain in South Wales thought I'd have a look at the expected rainfall totals over the next 36 hours.  This is how the UKMO sees it:

image.thumb.png.10d57c976d392c272ee9302fa9e4ba88.png

Only the highest ground in Snowdonia and the Brecons expected to have over 6cm of rain by Thursday midnight, other areas widely 4-5cm (2"), which although wet is not a deluge.  There could be some local flooding but nothing we're not used to!  

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.....so, it did rain a lot over night but not really too bad considering the warning.  I don't have a rain gauge so I can't tell you how much rain fell but I've seen it much worse and I think the caravans safe for now....!   Unfortunately for us I think there's more of the same to come and I don't think we can expect a dry spell for a good 10 days at least.

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