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Precipitation starting to fill on the radar now. If you look south of Cardiff, the gaps are starting to fill again as the blues and the greens replace the gaps!

hour ago 

E72A2D78-89F1-4068-AE2C-B5FE79774804.thumb.jpeg.1644c8ec0950c7ae874dba264c4f1fdc.jpeg

now

8B62F753-9273-41E2-86A9-5BE5E4177D3B.thumb.jpeg.215d005afdfbd5f0f36b68b495a2d90e.jpeg

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Aye. It looks like a bust. Just can’t see the heavy stuff getting here. Expecting no more than a dusting. 

Thats got to be up there with one of the biggest disappointments🤣

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So what the heck has happened? Is it a defo no no for some heavy stuff in south east wales?

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Just the inconvenience the Amber warning caused.schools closing early,parents leaving work early and so on...however if it hadn't have been issued and it had arrived we would have been questioning why it wasn't

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“An ugly, lovely town ... crawling, sprawling ... by the side of a long and splendid curving shore. This sea-town was my world, so ugly even the snow passed on by with barely a nod”
Dillwyn Thomas

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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Precipitation starting to fill on the radar now. If you look south of Cardiff, the gaps are starting to fill again as the blues and the greens replace the gaps!

hour ago 

E72A2D78-89F1-4068-AE2C-B5FE79774804.thumb.jpeg.1644c8ec0950c7ae874dba264c4f1fdc.jpeg

now

8B62F753-9273-41E2-86A9-5BE5E4177D3B.thumb.jpeg.215d005afdfbd5f0f36b68b495a2d90e.jpeg

you make a good point o,o that may actually be the result of the pivot, ~ anyone get some wind directions up ? it may also be the wind clamping some moisture together ! (so to speak)

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Guys it’s forming now.

look at south west England coast on radar directly below Cardiff. Moving north now and reforming.

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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Guys it’s forming now.

look at south west England coast on radar directly below Cardiff. Moving north now and reforming.

I tried telling people that earlier.

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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Guys it’s forming now.

look at south west England coast on radar directly below Cardiff. Moving north now and reforming.

Well i said earlier that the most snow will be between 9 and 12 and i stick with it, no its not going to be 20 feet but we'll have to see what it ends up.

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Got maybe 2-3cm here but it has pretty much stopped snowing, just some fine flakes blowing in the wind now. Temp steady at 1.6c,

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Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

I tried telling people that earlier.

I remember , didn't you say it would be like the yellows that we were seeing over S England , ~ and to be honest, it's nearly there! 

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2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Guys it’s forming now.

look at south west England coast on radar directly below Cardiff. Moving north now and reforming.

I believe you might be right. How many more ups and downs can we take in one night? Let's see if it comes together.

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Also the warning runs until 9pm and they state the snow will fall within 2 to 3 hours  up to 10cm so let's just wait and see.

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4 minutes ago, Frozone said:

Unbelievable that they have multi-million pound computer processing equipment at their disposal and they can't even forecast a bit of frontal snow, even a few hours in advance!

Firstly you should remember that every computer predicted the snow.

ICON, GFS ECM Euro4 not just Met Office computer.

Secondly, the temperatures are very close to freezing, in fact at 5pm A48 was at 0c

So dangers are, snow falling on roads washes away the rock salt, leaving wet roads that could freeze between council salt runs.

That very dangerous for commuters.

So already we had a risk and i would suggest with winds some mountain roads are currently treacherous, Thats why Rhigos and other mountain rds in that area have been closed.

The disruption MAY be less than originally thought, however thats just for here. Cornwall have had stranded vehicles and areas in the Amber warning have had significant snow so although IMBY it may not be bad it does not mean for others its not either. The front is likely to stall and then decay from the East but a few Cms are still likely to fall overnight.

A lot of schools will be closed tomorrow, especially in valley areas is most likely.

The snow did ease for many and that could be seen as a hole on the radar, but for many is South East wales this is not over yet and although not huge amounts in low areas, some higher areas may still see over 3 inches of snow.

Side rds will be dangerous with black ice, snow and frozen crushed snow all probable in morning.

P.s still snowing steadily  in Cardiff and these last two winters have at least given us a snowfall with some interest. Winters in excess of two years ago being more about cold rain and flooding. 

Enjoy the snowfall and stop worrying about how much, worst case scenario is you travel to a hill to have a play in snow tomorrow.

 

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If you look at 12z euro 4 on weather.us site, there was a clear gap in precipitation around 7pm. The front then catches up to front infront of it. By 9-10pm, South Wales had heavy precip again.

everything a bit later but it’s not quite as bad as we’re making out on here.

ECM run also had main precip 8-10pm.

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Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Also the warning runs until 9pm and they state the snow will fall within 2 to 3 hours  up to 10cm so let's just wait and see.

is 10cm in the amber warning or is it for the entirety of the amber and yellow warning ? 
it'll only take one heavy snow shower to create absolute havoc once this passes through, or may'be it will merge with the main snow band ? 

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Just now, pyrotech said:

Firstly you should remember that every computer predicted the snow.

ICON, GFS ECM Euro4 not just Met Office computer.

Secondly, the temperatures are very close to freezing, in fact at 5pm A48 was at 0c

So dangers are, snow falling on roads washes away the rock salt, leaving wet roads that could freeze between council salt runs.

That very dangerous for commuters.

So already we had a risk and i would suggest with winds some mountain roads are currently treacherous, Thats why Rhigos and other mountain rds in that area have been closed.

The disruption MAY be less than originally thought, however thats just for here. Cornwall have had stranded vehicles and areas in the Amber warning have had significant snow so although IMBY it may not be bad it does not mean for others its not either. The front is likely to stall and then decay from the East but a few Cms are still likely to fall overnight.

A lot of schools will be closed tomorrow, especially in valley areas is most likely.

The snow did ease for many and that could be seen as a hole on the radar, but for many is South East wales this is not over yet and although not huge amounts in low areas, some higher areas may still see over 3 inches of snow.

Side rds will be dangerous with black ice, snow and frozen crushed snow all probable in morning.

P.s still snowing steadily  in Cardiff and these last two winters have at least given us a snowfall with some interest. Winters in excess of two years ago being more about cold rain and flooding. 

Enjoy the snowfall and stop worrying about how much, worst case scenario is you travel to a hill to have a play in snow tomorrow.

 

Well said, we moan when the snow misses us but when it hits we then moan about the amount we get lol.

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1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

is 10cm in the amber warning or is it for the entirety of the amber and yellow warning ? 
it'll only take one heavy snow shower to create absolute havoc once this passes through, or may'be it will merge with the main snow band ? 

Amber but not ruling out the yellow zone too.

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Well.... Yesterday mornings model runs were epic and thing seem to have lost intensity since then for Wales.

11 am today the Met had my location down for 3 hours of heavy snow and then 3 or 4 hours of light to moderate, so far weve had 10 minutes of heavy snow and some snizzle......

This afternoons 12z runs:

 

 gfs for 7 pm  image.thumb.png.3a4d401ef6b2d3a93aff1fe6a2399c0b.png

gfsp for 7 pm image.thumb.png.bbc788e66250f27fe94901f169a71ada.png

 Hirlam 7 pm  image.thumb.png.ed9768b1d8f3393110a8cb342cc61173.png 

  Arpege 7 pmimage.thumb.png.f85945f5507c2b8f0e5a43a43c87079c.png

 current radar image 18.55:

                       image.thumb.png.2be8e810819f36b374bef21db0b96aff.png

Big fail there over Wales so far.... lets see what they show for 10pm:

gfs 10 pm       image.thumb.png.24e3a1218806e701cb369a3b82202103.png

gfsp  10 pm    image.thumb.png.eecd0af09a903afcfbe1a1a327695155.png

Hirlam 10 pm  image.thumb.png.105591e67dd05fd480454f1a3ab30f01.png

Arpege 10 pm image.thumb.png.f8ee8dd486b511d684f70703edf52ad0.png   

Lets see how it goes but all are from todays 12z so..............🤮 Arpege seems closest

 

 

image.png

image.png

ignore bottom 2 images cant delete

Edited by NoTraction

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Snowing lightly here in Barrybados.....Met office havegiven heavy snow from around about now until 10. Lampost watching it is then

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2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Also the warning runs until 9pm and they state the snow will fall within 2 to 3 hours  up to 10cm so let's just wait and see.

Wasnt it said there would be 8 to 13 hours of snow?  Maybe it still will but only had approx  2.5 to 3 and looks like majority has passed by. I'm not moaning I'm having a few beers and happy ha ha

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1 minute ago, NoTraction said:

Well.... Yesterday mornings model runs were epic and thing seem to have lost intensity since then for Wales.

11 am today the Met had my location down for 3 hours of heavy snow and then 3 or 4 hours of light to moderate, so far weve had 10 minutes of heavy snow and some snizzle......

This afternoons 12z runs:

 

 gfs for 7 pm  image.thumb.png.3a4d401ef6b2d3a93aff1fe6a2399c0b.png

gfsp for 7 pm image.thumb.png.bbc788e66250f27fe94901f169a71ada.png

 Hirlam 7 pm  image.thumb.png.ed9768b1d8f3393110a8cb342cc61173.png 

  Arpege 7 pmimage.thumb.png.f85945f5507c2b8f0e5a43a43c87079c.png

 current radar image 18.55:

                       image.thumb.png.2be8e810819f36b374bef21db0b96aff.png

Big fail there over Wales so far.... lets see what they show for 10pm:

gfs 10 pm       image.thumb.png.24e3a1218806e701cb369a3b82202103.png

gfsp  10 pm    image.thumb.png.eecd0af09a903afcfbe1a1a327695155.png

Hirlam 10 pm  image.thumb.png.105591e67dd05fd480454f1a3ab30f01.png

Arpege 10 pm image.thumb.png.f8ee8dd486b511d684f70703edf52ad0.png   

Lets see how it goes but all are from todays 12z so..............🤮

image.png

image.png

nah, this can't be right, that band approaching cornwall is already there , 3 hours earlier than this predicts.. unless it never reaches cornwall 

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8 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

But i'm sure @andymusic is battling through blizzards as we speak🤣🤣

Let's keep forum friendly no backbiting  ,allowed The Welsh are the friendless people on planet earth lol.

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20 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

BBC Wales trying to make dowlais top look much more dramatic than what it is 😂😂😂

Biggest laugh was them reporting from Llanidloes!  Been virtually nothing here in Mid-Wales,  more yesterday morning from a shower. To think Transport for Wales have cancelled all services on the Cambrian line tonight..

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