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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

The clue is under my name James, Pembroke, West Wales coast. Go the very end of the M4 and keep going until you get to the sea. I live on the edge of town and approx (as the crow flies) 3 miles from the coast x

I can't see I'm on my iPhone 😜

I know it well. We have a house in Fresh East

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10 minutes ago, JamesL said:

I can't see I'm on my iPhone 😜

I know it well. We have a house in Fresh East

Apologies I'm on a laptop...  Fresh East is just a 'good' walk from where I live... lol !

Already I'm feeling the effects of the occluded front bringing the system in... I've warmed up a 'tad. Temp is -0.5C and dew point is -1.3C

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Nice upgrade this morning between 10 and 15cms or snow Across Wales used the words heavy in places.We shall see how the front develops.We shall see.

Edited by keithlucky

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10 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Nice upgrade this morning between 10 and 15cms or snow Across Wales used the words heavy in places.We shall see how the front develops.We shall see.

What about the north mate?

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-5 here ! Let the games begin!!! 

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-5.2 °C here - brrrr. Off to work early so can leave early!

Are we still looking around 2pm for fun and games to start or is it earlier/later in the progression of the front?

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I dont know when but my husbands bike is frozen ..........................

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Fergus has now tweeted that it will be a rain event! Talk about last minute!

Can anyone discount this for the Bristol area? Confused . Com

Edited by Uncle Gargy

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42 minutes ago, dyl232 said:

What about the north mate?

GFS shows snow for an hour or two this evening for the North - other models vary. Very uncertain where the northern extent is.

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16 minutes ago, Uncle Gargy said:

Fergus has now tweeted that it will be a rain event! Talk about last minute!

Can anyone discount this for the Bristol area? Confused . Com

Who's Fergus?

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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Who's Fergus?

Fergie....Ian Ferguson the Met office weather man

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26 minutes ago, Uncle Gargy said:

Fergus has now tweeted that it will be a rain event! Talk about last minute!

Can anyone discount this for the Bristol area? Confused . Com

This was his last tweet....

Screenshot_2019-01-31-06-48-40-1.png

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My predictions for this evening's event.

1860880829_Screenshot2019-01-31at06_36_20.thumb.png.66251ad71fb36a0f6d96e216f978923c.png

Edited by Jackfrost

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32 minutes ago, Uncle Gargy said:

Fergus has now tweeted that it will be a rain event! Talk about last minute!

Can anyone discount this for the Bristol area? Confused . Com

I think there's a bit of confusion involved here: Fergie tweeted two charts, one from Jan. 23rd and one from midnight, to show how the forecast can and does change. The one from the 23rd showed a rain event, the one from midnight shows the snow event, which is still very much on.

Edited by Jackfrost

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1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

I think there's a bit of confusion involved here: Fergie tweeted two charts, one from Jan. 23rd and one from midnight, two show how the forecast can and does change. The one from the 23rd showed a rain event, the one from midnight shows the snow event, which is still very much on.

Omg! Thanks for sorting that out,thought my heart was going to give out! 😂😂

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11 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Omg! Thanks for sorting that out,thought my heart was going to give out! 😂😂

Yes, fear not @whiskers, we'll have our snow!

I'm trying to think of historical precedents for this... Does anybody remember the March 11-12th, 2004 event? Similar synoptics and depths, even similar times of day and night, although this time the snow should stick around for a few days instead of an immediate thaw setting in.

Edited by Jackfrost

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Bit of a downgrade this morning tbh.

Quite a few of the high res models have the front losing its intensity compared to previous runs.

Going to go down to the wire 

take Arpege for example. Just light snow for many and sleet on coasts.

A444F7EC-0275-4478-966F-C2B890FB992D.png

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Not holding out much hope for SW coastal areas... already 4c in Milford/Tenby/Angle (Met O)... -7c in mid-Wales.

Temp forecast to drop later in day as the cold air kicks back in but doubt it'll be enough for any laying snow in this area. I'll be very happy just to see some of the white stuff falling from the sky.

Looks like central southern Wales should do quite well out of this.

Good luck all.

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Looks like it is going to be marginal for us down in Barrybados, showing as sleet on Met Office app. BBC weather showed snow just covering us on forecast. Who knows lol

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I just saw the itv wales forecast and it only went to 3pm, that says to me still loads of uncertainty and this could go either way. I'm not feeling confident where I am but I'd  say 150m above should do well

Edited by freeze for all

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8 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Bit of a downgrade this morning tbh.

Quite a few of the high res models have the front losing its intensity compared to previous runs.

Going to go down to the wire 

take Arpege for example. Just light snow for many and sleet on coasts.

A444F7EC-0275-4478-966F-C2B890FB992D.png

 

It's quite possible that could happen. 

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