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4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

All gone pear-shaped, icons pushed it all north.

So u listening to the worst model out there , i think u should be watching the top models . Geez

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That video shows the spread of ensembles is wide. Won't know till Thurs on angle of approach

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1 minute ago, snowy36 said:

So u listening to the worst model out there , i think u should be watching the top models . Geez

Just listening to others that's all. Not having a good night Cardiff losing again lol not good at all.

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Be a shame if it does go north slightly as that would remove us on the south coast from the game as such compared to if it stayed south, fingers crossed it will stay south enough and go right for us for a change this winter 😁

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2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Just listening to others that's all. Not having a good night Cardiff losing again lol not good at all.

The Arpege and Hirlam will be the next intresting models out and then the Faxs later tonight . Jay dont worry about the gfs , good or bad 😁

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Just now, snowy36 said:

The Arpege and Hirlam will be the next intresting models out and then the Faxs later tonight . Jay dont worry about the gfs , good or bad 😁

When are the Arpege and Hirlam out?

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10 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

All gone pear-shaped, icons pushed it all north.

Not really imo Jay.

A slight push north initially of the precipitation but we’re talking minimal differences really. Although I know this can make all the difference for us but nothing to worry about here yet.

Infact if you look at early Friday, 18z actually has the precip further south than 12z.

FE85BD79-7E30-4405-9F34-B7C49312ACB5.thumb.png.d1a25e7e1e8b074eddbde655d3557593.png

BB109AD8-0FF7-42F3-8CD8-AD643B4BB9FF.thumb.png.fc8700a654ca310615e3a3f26d5cce09.png

Every run will likely fluctuate 50-100 miles maybe but we’re well in the game.

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2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

When are the Arpege and Hirlam out?

With in the next half hour to hour  for both.

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25 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

All gone pear-shaped, icons pushed it all north.

No dramas mate. Expect Orange by mid morning if not before.

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2 minutes ago, gareth moo said:

No dramas mate. Expect Orange by mid morning if not before.

Hope so, been a crap month Cardiff look like going down even though we're playing ok especially after sala going down in the plane.

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It’s the angle of attack that is literally key to us too.

you want the line of precipitation angled north west to south east moving northeast wards.

To explain what I mean, the angle on GFS isn’t that great for snow to continue as snow. Too much west to east movement rather than south west to north east.

CE0D032E-3F8F-41B0-9BA7-86D3999B510D.thumb.gif.e34b66f97382ae3f2528a5e8656e16f1.gif

In comparison, If you look at UKMO model, the front is at a much better angle, reducing ingress of milder air. 

ADBFA9A9-14FB-4705-80CC-6F50615D9294.thumb.png.d920b675a11580fee030a49c14b5b248.png

Edited by bradythemole

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8 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

It’s the angle of attack that is literally key to us too.

you want the line of precipitation angled south west to north east.

To explain what I mean, the angle on GFS isn’t that great for snow to continue as snow. Too much west to east movement rather than south west to north east.

CE0D032E-3F8F-41B0-9BA7-86D3999B510D.thumb.gif.e34b66f97382ae3f2528a5e8656e16f1.gif

In comparison, If you look at UKMO model, the front is at a much better angle, reducing ingress of milder air. 

ADBFA9A9-14FB-4705-80CC-6F50615D9294.thumb.png.d920b675a11580fee030a49c14b5b248.png

Do you think the GFS is the odd one out?

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4 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

But that angle (UKMO) is North West to South East ??

Sorry good spot, yes I meant that it is preferred if it moving from the south west to north east 😂 (front angled north west south east)

2C34724A-C269-464C-984D-5C229EE168F7.thumb.jpeg.4b0d7d5d1102c036a73c02b0edb8bd9f.jpegBetter angle

D6B4A58A-A429-4DB8-ABFE-B67CC8917D5C.thumb.jpeg.ee3279fa739a73b43d81dd4a038cf8a4.jpeg

Edited by bradythemole

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BBC goning for valleys as main area just now, also Scandavian high development later, could be a cold Feb

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8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Do you think the GFS is the odd one out?

It is a still a little more progressive than the other models but less so each run now.

Valleys look to be the sweet spot no matter the model.

But for southern coastal areas to stay as snow, we want UKMO preferably.

hoping for a good Euro4, first run that we’ll see Thursday properly 

Edited by bradythemole

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Well Hirlam is nice tonight 😍  between 6 and 8 hours of snow

Edited by snowy36

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3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

According to the GFS we are going to see snow for a good 9 hours

I'd say that's a 1 in 25 chance lol

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Quite a few times I've seen models bring rain edge in along the far south coast and going a fair few miles inland from the coast at times, which being only 6-7miles inland I don't want! Is the warmer air really expected to reach us and spoil it down here at the end? 

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3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

BBC IMBY is for 10 hours of snow, what model do they use

Models we will never see😓

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Arpege all good , less hours of snow but with a second push later on.  Lets see what the fax bring tonight.

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