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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


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12 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

8.3C here at the moment, a fair bit warmer than the 6c predicted as a high for today, doesn't give me great confidence for tomorrows temperatures being on the right side of marginal! How hard is it to get low daytime maxima here in mid winter, surely not too much to ask? ? Thursday looks interesting however!

Accumulation on Thursday looks decent just looked in the mod thread, some on higher ground could reach 30cm.

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

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Just saw on the cold hunt thread they are discussing the front coming through a lot earlier tomorrow so it would be in central uk by 10am. I would think if it comes through wales early mporning we may do better than expected as temps wont have risen so much.

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Just now, djwayne said:

Just saw on the cold hunt thread they are discussing the front coming through a lot earlier tomorrow so it would be in central uk by 10am. I would think if it comes through wales early mporning we may do better than expected as temps wont have risen so much.

Too hard to keep up with all these potential snow events gives me a headache.

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11 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Some serious snow developing for Thursday Easterly wind picks up off the continent,a wave forms on the front increasing the precipitation and slowing the front progression North serious disruption would occur ,I expect a red warning for Thursdays snow ,We in for a pasting.

 

Tomorrow just a taster!

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3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Too hard to keep up with all these potential snow events gives me a headache.

it's been a very long "hunt for the cold" lol this time - with lots of "near misses" - I think we're all a bit tuckered out this season - never mind - the pot of gold or snow looks to be just around the next bend, we hope - meto are still rallying for worse to come through this month also - so their crystal ball model is seeing something at the moment other models aren't really churning out

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With all the talk about what we can expect from tomorrow and onwards, I just want to put on record what a beautiful, sparkling winters day it's been today.  A lovely sunrise followed by mostly clear blue skies with light cumulus clouds passing slowly in a light, almost undetectable breeze.....   Quite noticeably mild in the sun which has been lighting up the hillsides and woodlands from a low angle bringing out the colours even though the trees have no leaves.  Definite hints of spring with daffs and snowdrops pushing up everywhere.  On days like these there is nowhere else in the world I want to be.  

Who could guess from this what a complete change in the weather is to follow tomorrow and later this week, if the models are to be believed.....?

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8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

With all the talk about what we can expect from tomorrow and onwards, I just want to put on record what a beautiful, sparkling winters day it's been today.  A lovely sunrise followed by mostly clear blue skies with light cumulus clouds passing slowly in a light, almost undetectable breeze.....   Quite noticeably mild in the sun which has been lighting up the hillsides and woodlands from a low angle bringing out the colours even though the trees have no leaves.  Definite hints of spring with daffs and snowdrops pushing up everywhere.  On days like these there is nowhere else in the world I want to be.  

Who could guess from this what a complete change in the weather is to follow tomorrow and later this week, if the models are to be believed.....?

this is similar to what happened last year though - the weekend before the beast you'd swear spring/summer was upon us and no-one believed me when I kept telling them we were gonna get hit with an almighty beast from the east - soon changed there tune when it happened - gonna getting freezing tonight though with a cloudless sky or thereabouts before the front moves in that should change the game a bit even with the slightly milder air coming into wales ahead of the front - seems tomorrow we could get 3 hours or so of wintry precip and Thursday looks even better with 3-6 hours - Friday as well is looking like we could get more snow in a biting north easterly

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23 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Some serious snow developing for Thursday Easterly wind picks up off the continent,a wave forms on the front increasing the precipitation and slowing the front progression North serious disruption would occur ,I expect a red warning for Thursdays snow ,We in for a pasting.

 

 

23 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Some serious snow developing for Thursday Easterly wind picks up off the continent,a wave forms on the front increasing the precipitation and slowing the front progression North serious disruption would occur ,I expect a red warning for Thursdays snow ,We in for a pasting.

 

GFS,as expected  adjusts the front further to southwest so increasing the chances of a stalling fronts,so we keep the Easterly winds.

 

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8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

some nice charts to keep us entertained while we wait for tomorrow

image.thumb.png.b93c42f90bea3d280c78a7a4c2645fdb.png

and Thursday

image.thumb.png.69e37b6be922e239f010f4489814e447.png

and Friday

image.thumb.png.601099780fa336a1895a21e3ed839d80.png

It's important that we see further adjustment south to stop the south west wind will allow  the milder air filter northwards.

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Bored waiting for an appointment at the Doctors. So here's my forecast for the week. Based on an amateur look at the models and what others are saying... 

Tuesday: A wintry mix moving through Wales quite quickly. Nothing but rain to lower levels in the south with some sleet for the valleys and snow to higher ground Mid Wales and north. North Wales seeing also snow but lighter. 

Tuesday night- Wednesday: plenty of showers piling through on a NW-SE trajectory. Snow for all other than coastal areas in the south, where we'll see sleet unless it's during nighttime hours. 

Thursday: Snow moves in from the west, sleet for lower levels to begin with but turning to snow in heavier pulses. Turning to sleet as it moves through. Anyone with elevation getting some good depths. 

Early Friday--Early Saturday: a band of snow returns across Wales from the N/ NE bringing snow for all. How much? Not a clue.

Accumulations for anyone with height north of Merthyr pretty good, Valleys to do well from Thursday, lower levels in the south to see something Thursday and hope for something decent Friday. 

And still waiting for my appointment... 

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9 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

Bored waiting for an appointment at the Doctors. So here's my forecast for the week. Based on an amateur look at the models and what others are saying... 

Tuesday: A wintry mix moving through Wales quite quickly. Nothing but rain to lower levels in the south with some sleet for the valleys and snow to higher ground Mid Wales and north. North Wales seeing also snow but lighter. 

Tuesday night- Wednesday: plenty of showers piling through on a NW-SE trajectory. Snow for all other than coastal areas in the south, where we'll see sleet unless it's during nighttime hours. 

Thursday: Snow moves in from the west, sleet for lower levels to begin with but turning to snow in heavier pulses. Turning to sleet as it moves through. Anyone with elevation getting some good depths. 

Early Friday--Early Saturday: a band of snow returns across Wales from the N/ NE bringing snow for all. How much? Not a clue.

Accumulations for anyone with height north of Merthyr pretty good, Valleys to do well from Thursday, lower levels in the south to see something Thursday and hope for something decent Friday. 

And still waiting for my appointment... 

lol - doctors waiting are always good places to have a quiet think lol - god knows why

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9 minutes ago, Fujita scale said:

Apparently Arpege not so keen on the snow tomorrow on latest runs and pushing mostly a rain event.

The uncertainty will go down to a nowcast but looks like milder air going to be more prominent.

JK

We need to rely on the professional viewpoint dew points etc ...and they don't issue weather warnings lightly, besides no doubt Thursday is a snow feast.

 

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11 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

A lot of the short term models signalling a mainly rain event tomorrow now for majority of us. Lets hope this changes. MetOffice text looks good though for next few days, hard to call.

gonna be down to the wire and radar methinks - meto think the freezing level will bounce up and then back down and so it'll be interesting to see how it effects the front and showers coming through

euro4 late coming out tonight - and just when we could do with a decent update un all

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8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

gonna be down to the wire and radar methinks - meto think the freezing level will bounce up and then back down and so it'll be interesting to see how it effects the front and showers coming through

euro4 late coming out tonight - and just when we could do with a decent update un all

Not really excited about tomorrow. Thursday could be the one.

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does seem a slight change on euro4 - we'll have to wait and see

image.thumb.png.1bf447185801438efbd17e2d5dab826e.png

image.thumb.png.199ee9e74b7a2903b480ccd15face9b9.png

into Wednesday

image.thumb.png.4b13bfc6bb2f4cc376d13c4ae03fe628.png

image.thumb.png.0b83e69c761793f4b17caa479c1b1ba1.png

don't forget though - euro4 has a tendency to underdo snow as was shown yesterday when we had showers all afternoon of snow and nothing was showing on euro4 - so it's just a guide

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3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

does seem a slight change on euro4 - we'll have to wait and see

image.thumb.png.1bf447185801438efbd17e2d5dab826e.png

image.thumb.png.199ee9e74b7a2903b480ccd15face9b9.png

into Wednesday

image.thumb.png.4b13bfc6bb2f4cc376d13c4ae03fe628.png

image.thumb.png.0b83e69c761793f4b17caa479c1b1ba1.png

don't forget though - euro4 has a tendency to underdo snow as was shown yesterday when we had showers all afternoon of snow and nothing was showing on euro4 - so it's just a guide

I just saw them , not that bothered about tomorrow . If we to get fireworks then thursday was always going to be the day.

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45 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

We need to rely on the professional viewpoint dew points etc ...and they don't issue weather warnings lightly, besides no doubt Thursday is a snow feast.

 

So Thursday is a snow fest now is it?? What happened to tomorrow? On the weekend Tuesday was the snow fest, and Wednesday it will b Friday or Saturday which will b the snow fest. Can u c where this is going? The same as the models all winter things being pushed back and not happening. I do hope your right for Thursday tho but im expecting it to go the way of the pear

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2 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

So Thursday is a snow fest now is it?? What happened to tomorrow? On the weekend Tuesday was the snow fest, and Wednesday it will b Friday or Saturday which will b the snow fest. Can u c where this is going? The same as the models all winter things being pushed back and not happening. I do hope your right for Thursday tho but im expecting it to go the way of the pear

Yep always changes 24 hours out for the worst lol. 

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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Yep always changes 24 hours out for the worst lol. 

hasn't happened yet - knife edge stuff like this could go either way - then afterwards you can either say told you so or I loved my snow lol

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1 minute ago, freeze for all said:

So Thursday is a snow fest now is it?? What happened to tomorrow? On the weekend Tuesday was the snow fest, and Wednesday it will b Friday or Saturday which will b the snow fest. Can u c where this is going? The same as the models all winter things being pushed back and not happening. I do hope your right for Thursday tho but im expecting it to go the way of the pear

Ha ha ...last tues looked promising, then tomorrow, now thursday, bbc just said thurs looks like rain to start only turning to snow later further inland, i wouldn'tnt bank on anything yet..... except on the mountains, which in fairness are not much of a drive for most. I'm confident i'll be sledging with the kids somewhere at the weekend, but perhaps not where i live. 

 

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