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unlike last year when Derek refused to let everyone know early enough when it was obvious what was about to happen 2 weeks out - he actually mentioned cold and snow on last night's forecast for a couple of weeks time - seems it may well be the biggest conversation over coffee breaks right now at the bbc, meteogroup and the meto lol - gfs (p) has the cold and snow now progged around 180 hrs and hopefully over the next few runs will just get closer and closer

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I'm looking forward to the weekend as I have 6 days of work starting Saturday and it brings us closer to knowing what will happen with all this cold and will it/won't it. Plus when I go back to work on 18th it means we'll know roughly what to start to expect in that much talked about 'last third of jan'. I just hope we have an amazing few weeks coming up, though I fully expect the opposite for now just incase 😅

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1 hour ago, andymusic said:

unlike last year when Derek refused to let everyone know early enough when it was obvious what was about to happen 2 weeks out - he actually mentioned cold and snow on last night's forecast for a couple of weeks time - seems it may well be the biggest conversation over coffee breaks right now at the bbc, meteogroup and the meto lol - gfs (p) has the cold and snow now progged around 180 hrs and hopefully over the next few runs will just get closer and closer

Good to see you back Andy , yes Derek has definitely upped the ante this year , about time too 😏!

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Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi

·Jan 3

Before winter is over, think Europe almost certain to have above average energy demand, perhaps shortages, Worry about the US also. Analogs to stratwarms of 65-66,84-85,93-94 all lurk Winter went wild and stayed wild after Jan 15, Warmth late Dec early Jan preceded 66,85 events

Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi

GEFS 1-6, backs cold off in 6-11 a bit, then the start of real winter is in 11-16. stormy, cold US and Europe later this month into March, total snow on GEFS is impressive next 16 days over the east

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22 hours ago, andymusic said:

Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi

·Jan 3

Before winter is over, think Europe almost certain to have above average energy demand, perhaps shortages, Worry about the US also. Analogs to stratwarms of 65-66,84-85,93-94 all lurk Winter went wild and stayed wild after Jan 15, Warmth late Dec early Jan preceded 66,85 events

Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi

GEFS 1-6, backs cold off in 6-11 a bit, then the start of real winter is in 11-16. stormy, cold US and Europe later this month into March, total snow on GEFS is impressive next 16 days over the east

Roar on Global Warming Snow is a coming Big time#'/. image.thumb.png.87d95facfea42559f7043ca8695605a1.png Looks pretty sustained cold spell with at least ten days of cold, been waiting for the strat warming effect to take effect but best things in life is worth waiting for.

Edited by keithlucky
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Let's hope it ain't as bad as 1947 - snow and cold from last week in January to middle of March - but that's what is being touted - and once those pesky easterlies get entrenched - that fine Alpine snow will get everywhere lol - be careful what you wish for folks - https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/01/26/winter-1947-brought-a-freeze-to-post-war-britain/

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Love your optimism guys but no chart is showing these extreme conditions within a reliable timeframe, it only takes a slight shift somewhere and we'll b back to groundhog day. Hopefully not........

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Cold and snow now showing up in circa 6 days time and counting (next Wednesday) on the gfsp - so getting closer and closer

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On 27/12/2018 at 18:18, The4Seasons said:

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/what-met-office-says-new-15600961.amp    

A very interesting article - the met office thinks the beast may return 

Also with a very low solar minimum ,plus Krakow eruption has been raised to a level2 which can reduce global temperature, this occurred in 1982 with a major eruption in Mexico resulting in a very cold January and snowstorms across Wales.Good old Derek Getting excited by the start warming event taking place over the Arctic now expect major upgrades GFS cannot handle strat warming, come next week all models will come in line.As very interesting winter weather Bites hard into UK.Just a footnote Greece recorded -23C last night

 

 

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Exciting times ahead,  who else looks at every new round of charts . Who needs TV when the charts are more entertaining. Lets hope lady luck is on our side the rest of winter.😊 

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Things are getting interesting and again don’t believe the tripe in the Model thread against NWstlies! There is a huge East bias there! NWstly always fare well in Wales even in coastal areas like Swansea! I’ve seen heavy snow from a North Westerly with -3 upper air temps!! 

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14 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Things are getting interesting and again don’t believe the tripe in the Model thread against NWstlies! There is a huge East bias there! NWstly always fare well in Wales even in coastal areas like Swansea! I’ve seen heavy snow from a North Westerly with -3 upper air temps!! 

Sadly Wales hardly ever gets a mention in the mod thread, but I agree we always do well from a north westerly they normally always deliver the goods.

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45 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Exciting times ahead,  who else looks at every new round of charts . Who needs TV when the charts are more entertaining. Lets hope lady luck is on our side the rest of winter.😊 

True the snow risk charts from the various sites have the North and west UK shows snow on and off for 5 days lol !by next weekend.

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The interesting thing i find is that we have no real idea what direction our weather will be coming from  by the end of next week ,the next 6 weeks will be very interesting .

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2 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

True the snow risk charts from the various sites have the North and west UK shows snow on and off for 5 days lol !by next weekend.

Got to admit i take no notice of them , the models  find it hard to predict what the weather will be never mind if we going to get snow.😂😂

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6 minutes ago, Magic Trichs said:

Cardiff looking cold for the forseeable and snowy from the 19th ish on....

974F7AA1-3F43-4970-8560-9E5594C07F01.png

I'm not sure why this post got removed from the mod thread, I bet if it was showing for somewhere in England it would still be there. Anyway looking good indeed 🙂 we also have andymusic back posting again so you know something's brewing! 

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1 hour ago, coldie said:

I'm not sure why this post got removed from the mod thread, I bet if it was showing for somewhere in England it would still be there. Anyway looking good indeed 🙂 we also have andymusic back posting again so you know something's brewing! 

Oh definitely ! Wales doesn't exist on the mad thread , I think it's hilarious personally 😂 no disrespect but it's typical of the English 😏🙄

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22 minutes ago, Missdolly said:

Oh definitely ! Wales doesn't exist on the mad thread , I think it's hilarious personally 😂 no disrespect but it's typical of the English 😏🙄

You wanna be careful, if one of them sees your post they might get offended and report you ❄️❄️ 🤣 It's all rather silly if you ask me,  It's the same for Northern Ireland and Scotland as well they rarely get mentioned either! 

Edited by coldie
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Our topography in Wales - the mountains - does give us an advantage to a degree when the temps drop and snow is in the offering - they don't have those advantages and have to rely more on getting a freezing cold easterly to deliver what they want - but easterlies do help us greatly too - so 9 times out of ten we tend to win all round, plus the fact that we are nearer the Atlantic - so once the cold air is in if the fronts are still coming from the ocean in the west we get those 1st - looks to me on the latest models we are going to get some action from the north and west 1st with some sliders which could dump a whole load of snow on us and then a switch to easterlies will be on the cards via one of the sliders possibly which will bring the temps down even more and any precip will be snow throughout - how long this weather will hang around is anybody's guess but some are saying the SSW will have an effect up through till April once it gets going - could be a long end to winter if so - I'll start posting me snow charts as and when things really start getting closer and interesting - here we go folks in Wales - we could be digging out for weeks if this really gets going

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Nice to Andymusic posting, I’m off to see snow patrol in Birmingham on the 25th of January so I’ve been keeping an eye for signs of snow especially as Winter has been quiet so far. 

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4 hours ago, coldie said:

You wanna be careful, if one of them sees your post they might get offended and report you ❄️❄️ 🤣 It's all rather silly if you ask me,  It's the same for Northern Ireland and Scotland as well they rarely get mentioned either! 

I know that's why I said no disrespect 🤣 ! The toy throwing in there has been ridiculous over the past few weeks , they can just carry on ! Just happy there's more people posting in here 😁

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2019/colder-weather-coming

 

Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi

·

3h

Its the Habbkkuk 2:3 Winter For the vision awaits an appointed time; it testifies of the end, and will not lie. Though it lingers, wait for it, since it will surely come.... Next 60 days its coming for the US and Europe IMO

Edited by andymusic

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Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi

·

Jan 9

Cold eastern US pattern upcoming 7 days pr cursor to 7 weeks of major cold I think is coming . GEFS 11-16 showing the double whammy evolving that was tweeted about earlier as major energy demand areas of Europe and US get ready to start sustained major cold period

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