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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

Posted Images

12 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Yes but will it snow in Swansea :rofl:.......seriously though will it???? Been quite sad today was like father christmas never came :sorry: but I've been good all year

that's the problem you should of been a bad girl:diablo:

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6 hours ago, swales said:

Someone mentioned (I think J10) it's because of the Foehn effect? We're in a rain/snow shadow because of the direction the precipitation is moving in

 

How unlucky

 

 

foehn effect.png

Indeed they tend to get a lot of this in the Alps with the leeward side of the mountain much milder and drier than the other,

In Wales NE Wales can get very mild on SW winds, with Hawarden often being the warmest place in Wales for this reason.

https://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/broughton-hits-17c-making-hottest-12292680

A lot more detail in the link below.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/foehn-effect

 

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something seems off about the falling precipitation, and the predicted precipitation on GFS. it seems to be a bit further north, a couple of dozen miles, than what the GFS precipitation 12 z chart thinks, but the low is almost exactly where it's supposed to be, if a bit tighter than predicted on the sea level pressure GFS chart

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

something seems off about the falling precipitation, and the predicted precipitation on GFS. it seems to be a bit further north, a couple of dozen miles, than what the GFS precipitation 12 z chart thinks, but the low is almost exactly where it's supposed to be, if a bit tighter than predicted on the sea level pressure GFS chart

 

 

All good so far :)  Steady as she goes.

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2 minutes ago, J10 said:

Indeed they tend to get a lot of this in the Alps with the leeward side of the mountain much milder and drier than the other,

In Wales NE Wales can get very mild on SW winds, with Hawarden often being the warmest place in Wales for this reason.

 

https://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/broughton-hits-17c-making-hottest-12292680

A lot more detail in the link below.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/foehn-effect

 

Only 2 options then......

1) relocate the whole city to a sweet spot.

2) shave a bit off the mountains and pop the waste in swansea bay 

Actually asked my hubby if we could move to Canada today

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Bit nervous about what's heading our way this evening/ overnight. Sure it will make it, but seems marginal to me whether coastal areas could get freezing rain instead?

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19 minutes ago, Penfoel said:

I wish :sorry:

not allowed ... unpasteurised... we drink it of course but we aren’t able to give it away due to silly rules ... 

ice cream ?? :D

 

4DFDA8DB-CDBF-4CC1-9A74-CE2411578D44.jpeg

I thought there might be something like that about selling it.  Didn't realise it extended to giving  it away.  I thought I heard of a farm that had some sort of fridge outside where people could come and take raw milk, at their own risk, and in their own containers.  I can't remember all the details but it got round the letter of the law....probably been stopped by now though, it was several years ago.

I hope the lorry gets to you in the morning....:hi:

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5 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

something seems off about the falling precipitation, and the predicted precipitation on GFS. it seems to be a bit further north, a couple of dozen miles, than what the GFS precipitation 12 z chart thinks, but the low is almost exactly where it's supposed to be, if a bit tighter than predicted on the sea level pressure GFS chart

 

 

Is it freezing rain down south!!!  Was that V7 radar any good, i was going to get it .

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1 minute ago, snowy36 said:

All good so far :)  Steady as she goes.

also, the low looks a lot tighter, and more organised. quite nice looking on v7. also definitely further east than predicted, by about 65 to 70 miles further east than where it is SUPPOSED to be at 12 am, by my rough reckoning. this MUST change what happens, surely?

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3 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Is it freezing rain down south!!!  Was that V7 radar any good, i was going to get it .

yeah i love it. glued to it in conditions like this. :D

 

it''s saying snow showers starting to hit s wales now. bit of sleet in the bristol channel though, and over the mountains of england to our south, there's a mixture of snow sleet and freezing rain

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2 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

also, the low looks a lot tighter, and more organised. quite nice looking on v7. also definitely further east than predicted, by about 65 to 70 miles further east than where it is SUPPOSED to be at 12 am, by my rough reckoning. this MUST change what happens, surely?

According to the charts it goes east a bit between now and 10 then goes straight north until it turns.

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8 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Only 2 options then......

1) relocate the whole city to a sweet spot.

2) shave a bit off the mountains and pop the waste in swansea bay 

Actually asked my hubby if we could move to Canada today

Or next time have the front coming from a different direction. aka 2013 or 1996, even 1991.

It was so cold yesterday a normal SW would have done the trick.

On 28/02/2018 at 08:59, Sky Full said:

Looking at the detailed charts for the period out to about +65h there is a distinct wedge of less cold uppers shown forming across the SW and then making an arrowhead into south and west Wales.  The difference in temperature of this air is quite marked compared to the surrounding air and is modelled to considerably restrict the amount of snow falling over central Wales over the next three days.  This is the WRF but all high res models show this feature:

image.thumb.gif.8a6bac0e1b505d2c365d9056ccd0894f.gif

Is this the result of a geographical feature (Bristol channel, or Dartmoor perhaps?) or is it simply the dynamics of the low pressure system?  It stands out on the line of upper temperatures as they move north across the British Isles and it would be interesting to find out the reason for it.

 

On 28/02/2018 at 09:25, Blessed Weather said:

With the easterly flow over Wales it could be the air descending and warming (adiabatic compression) on the leeward side the Welsh mountains? You'll often see it in the Alps where it's referred to as the Foehn effect.

 

image.png

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One of my cats just demanded to go out...he got two steps out on the packed bit outside the door, took a step on the soft stuff and turned straight round!!!

 

No snow here for the past 90 minutes or more....waiting for the next bit predicted by nw radar....

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8 minutes ago, Icequeen said:

Only 2 options then......

1) relocate the whole city to a sweet spot.

2) shave a bit off the mountains and pop the waste in swansea bay 

Actually asked my hubby if we could move to Canada today

Don’t worry as in summer when the rain comes from the south east it will be toasty and dry in Swansea ......

Speaking of summer the Ssw in 2013 led to a fantastic summer ..... directly ?? Maybe ..

So perhaps this summer could be just as good as that one .

Nice stroll down to verdis in the late evening warmth , glass of red then maybe a bag of chips from yallops or stay in verdis if you must ... 

Walk round the bays on the coastal path , and it’s right on our doorstep .

Would you rather be up in the cool misty valleys then ?

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

That ppn is rotating towards us? How can the BBC and met office get it so wrong? That's obviously if it happens.

the low is further east than predicted, clearly. by about 60 miles or so. the following is where it should have been at 9pm..

 

low10.thumb.png.91fb94138508d75da5be9d49a22b3bee.png

 but this is where it was, centred directly south of Plymouth..

 

low9.thumb.png.f1dbe82efe668b5374a746c6e62430e0.png

 

question is, is this slight positional change anything significant?

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1 minute ago, Baldy Snowman said:

the low is further east than predicted, clearly. by about 60 miles or so. the following is where it should have been at 9pm..

 

low10.thumb.png.91fb94138508d75da5be9d49a22b3bee.png

 but this is where it was, centred directly south of Plymouth..

 

low9.thumb.png.f1dbe82efe668b5374a746c6e62430e0.png

 

question is, is this slight positional change anything significant?

Who knows, my met office has now updated to some heavy snow over night and also my AccuWeather app says 2 inches of snow to come.

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5 minutes ago, Baldy Snowman said:

the low is further east than predicted, clearly. by about 60 miles or so. the following is where it should have been at 9pm..

 

low10.thumb.png.91fb94138508d75da5be9d49a22b3bee.png

 but this is where it was, centred directly south of Plymouth..

 

low9.thumb.png.f1dbe82efe668b5374a746c6e62430e0.png

 

question is, is this slight positional change anything significant?

Dont want it to far east or it could bring rain.

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