Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[booferking]

17 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Yes please Booferking!!! 

All we need is luck from the weather gods and it will betime

[booferking]

19 minutes ago, ronan said:

Lol Boofer you go there before me. was about to post the top 2. Looking really good if we can go by the 06z but going by the ups and downs and massive changes run to run then we will have to wait a little longer to see the outcome. 

Some double digit lows at night with the snow fields

[Sperrin]

Today's met office update is quite good from our point of view, especially those in the North and West. 

UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 7 Dec 2016:

The rest of November is looking dry though often rather cloudy for most. However, it is likely to turn wet and windy in the north-west through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Some fog and freezing fog patches are likely, especially across central parts and it will be generally cold with overnight frosts quite widely. Through early December things are likely to turn more unsettled from the north-west, with some very windy conditions. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and possibly even to lower levels at times. Temperatures should be around, or perhaps a little below, normal. High pressure should start to dominate as we go through the December turning things more settled

[mountain shadow]

12z's looking good so far, just need the ECM to bring home the bacon and you can start waxing the sleds!

[booferking]

GFS 12z not as good but the GFS control would deliver for a lot of us in here.

We also get a Atlantic low sliding south east through the country with plenty of snow and then Northerly resumes

[Guest]

I don't really get that weather tourism thing. Yes, granted going to another country for the cold is a promising idea but I think the whole special thing of snow is seeing it happen in your own home.

[Sperrin]

ECM is an absolute disaster at +240, full on zonal train. It's amazing how two models can be so different. 

If the ECM wins out this time then the GFS may pack it's bags for a long holiday.

[mountain shadow]

Awful ECM as you say Sperrin. My start of December snow is on shaky ground now, if there's no improvement in the overnight runs then I fear any snow potential will need to be pushed back a week until around the 9th/10th.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Boooooooooooo

[Downburst]

Yes, the 12z do look more mobile after mid next week, but one more nearly dry week and this autumn as been just about perfect for me. It really has been on the dry side. In saying that I do expect it to remain generally settled and then to break down, but look at the met office update, look at what GP noted yesterday I think it was yesterday. There will be changes in the 7 to 10 day forecast from today, a short break down and then back to more settled, perfect.

BTW, if I read that Short Wave thing again I'll quit reading this forum. There is a couple of posters straight in, pseudo experts, always the exact same comments on each and every run, run has to be epic or terrible, crying about Shortwaves at 180 to 240 + hours off eh coast of Lapland etc. etc. You'd think they'd discovered some secret, if it wasn't for you pesky kids (SW) interfering, Scooby Doo.

I must be the only one excited about this settles and very dry weather.

[BIG LAD]

im loving this weather too.frost never cleared today in shaded areas and temps were back down to -2c by half 6 this eve. ground is cooling nicely so can only help if the snow does come. i wouldnt even bother with model watchin to be honest, it could drive a man insane. what happens happens.

[booferking]

58 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

ECM is an absolute disaster at +240, full on zonal train. It's amazing how two models can be so different. 

If the ECM wins out this time then the GFS may pack it's bags for a long holiday.

Indeed if GFS is wrong i will be giving its presence a wide birth from now on.  Its meant to be the best model at picking up northerly's but time will tell if its another epic fail,  that will be 2 in the space of couple of weeks.

[ronan]

1 hour ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

I don't really get that weather tourism thing. Yes, granted going to another country for the cold is a promising idea but I think the whole special thing of snow is seeing it happen in your own home.

I am off to Iceland for a week in February. It will be my second trip there in a year. Its an amazing place with plenty to do and see. For me the snow and ice will be a bonus but its more the road trip around the island and photographing the Northern Lights. This was from April this year. 

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, ronan said:

I am off to Iceland for a week in February. It will be my second trip there in a year. Its an amazing place with plenty to do and see. For me the snow and ice will be a bonus but its more the road trip around the island and photographing the Northern Lights. This was from April this year. 

 

 

Amazing shot!

[ronan]

So the ups and downs of the model thread continues. We have been looking at the first couple of days of December for a while now so i really do hope that for everyone's sanity that we see something. As for current weather, its brilliant!! We had our first proper ice day today with last nights frost lingering all day. A hard frost set in early this evening and its like a bottle outside not to mention the think freezing fog covering the whole City. To add to that its to last till Saturday and some spots will get down to minus 7 tonight. Sure its not even winter yet!

[Neiller22]

To be honest I pay no attention to what the models say anymore past 5 days. It really is a lottery and not worth getting hung up on. They just constantly chop and change day in day out and quite frankly not really worth the paper they are written on past 5-6 days. People say yeah but it's all about trends ! There are two trends! Either getting milder or colder with either rain or snow ! And at the moment nobody knows. And nobody will never know. The weather will do what it wants! Sad but bloody reality I'm afraid. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A hard frost this morning, beautiful clear star filled sky, be interesting to see what the minimum temp recorded during the night was.

[Abyss]

Finner, Donegal recorded snow at 5am. Must be a malfunction. Models looking interesting this morning for a Northerly. Lets see what the Euro says

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

-6 recorded in the car, -7 recorded in Katesbridge! @mountain shadow 4 - 7 of December still has some interesting charts.......

[mountain shadow]

41 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

-6 recorded in the car, -7 recorded in Katesbridge! @mountain shadow 4 - 7 of December still has some interesting charts.......

Aye, but ECM Op not in the game yet. As Neiller says, the models are pointless past day 5/6 at the moment, no idea what is going to happen.

Meanwhile another brilliant frost this am.

[Juuyoku]

Sunny and a hard frost this morning. Local stations reporting -4 degrees 

[sundog]

certainly no frost here this morning,a balmy 7.7c here atm. Wish i was getting the cold crisp frosty weather up north.

[sundog]

So the battle between the gfs and ecm continues. Im sure many across net weather will be clued to the 12z runs later today.

[Methuselah]

It's looking like a transition to colder weather is approaching a state of 'nailedonness'; just how that transition is going to come about, however, is looking anything but nailed on? So, as I always do, in such fractious times as these, I'll be lining-up my teddies, just in case!

Sorry peeps, wrong thread...the GFS is getting me too excited!

Edited November 24, 2016 by Ed Stone

[Weegaz]

A warm 10 degrees in Dublin today, once through newry the fog and frost lifted.

charts looking good and starting to get into reliable time frames as mentioned on here