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Please carry on here

old thread here   ------> 

 

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The stratospheric PV looks like shifting across the pole to N Scandanavia, the tropospheric PV looks like following suit over the next couple of weeks.

I reckon we will see a stonking Northerly with snow before the month is out, and with the PV in tatters a very special December cannot be ruled out.

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The odds are shortening as regards getting a  cold spell sometime in the weeks ahead. Its surely just a matter of time. 

This morning here was the coldest so far this season wth a sharp frost ,min temp 0.2c .

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Lovely air and grass frost this morning,has been great house moving weather tbf!! Haven't much time or understanding to wade through the model thread, so thanks guy's for keeping me updated!! 

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I see the first snow warnings of this winter issued by MetO for northern england and scotland.  Interesting period coming up as mountain shadow says but in the mean time bring on more frosty days like this morning, car was frozen solid.

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51 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Pom says No.

:-(

Lol until there is 10ft snow drifts on the ground then never!!  First rule of winter club is you don't speak of winter ;)

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No frost here this morning but it was clouding over then raining by morning lovely and cold though.

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lovely white frost this morn, first of the year. was well cleared by 9am though. big snow event tomorrow for high parts of scotland and n england goin by the forcast. cold rain for us unfortunately

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If you fancy being awake around 4-6am you may see a few flakes, other than that say bye bye to any chances for the next few weeks.

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Things are looking pretty damn good and we are still 3 weeks out from winter. All the signals are there anyway. 

 

 

gensnh-0-1-312.png.130055a13249cca05f68d2280766a4a8.png

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4 hours ago, Kilkee said:

If you fancy being awake around 4-6am you may see a few flakes, other than that say bye bye to any chances for the next few weeks.

I'll be awake in work unfortunately lol but I doubt I'll see anything this low down. 

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Looking at charts if cold air where to push further west, which it has already done since the weekend, some could see a few flakes along the east of NI

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Certainly cold enough at the moment. Temps around freezing here.

A less cold regime for the next 7-10 days then hopefully a Northerly will occur soon after.

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A time of yr we can be prone to getting cold snaps is sometime during the last ten days of nov,has happened many times before if my memory serves me right. Even some guy years ago did research or something on dates during times of the year most likely for below average temps and above average temps  and indeed the last third of nov was one of the times that can often get below average temps. looks like a very decent chance of that occuring this yr.

If i was a betting man i would go for a cold snap near the end of the month and an actual proper cold spell about a month later.

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Stonking 6z with extensive Northerly blocking and a dead Atlantic, given the continued forecast of a weak Polar Vortex from the middle of this month and beyond is looking amazing Winter wise.

Get you heating oil filled up and your pipes lagged.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Pomeroysnow said:

A bloody raw day for doing anything outside,  liking the posts lads, lot's of reasons to be more positive this year!!

Given last Winters horrendous weather (gales and endless rain) it wouldn't be hard.

I have been model watching for nigh on 16/17 years and I cannot recall such a weakened Polar Vortex.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given last Winters horrendous weather (gales and endless rain) it wouldn't be hard.

I have been model watching for nigh on 16/17 years and I cannot recall such a weakened Polar Vortex.

Indeed Mountain, looking good "potential" wise especially for lowlanders like me, which reminds me how do you update your profile as I am no longer up in the hills :(

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Model thread got some good news from Ian Ferguson :cold::D it dont get better than that.

 

ECMWF Seasonal just released: extensive +ve GPH/MSLP to N/NW/NE of UK through its D-J-F suite. Consistent signal with last run.

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