North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[pip22]

The latest 18z GFS is looking good for our region!!

Hopefully it would stick to its guns otherwise it will go down the drain!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Any chance of something like this? this was very heavy snow, dumped a few cms, after rain

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Miamay said:

hows it looking for Liverpool?

As always Miamay 'MARGINAL'

[chiffer]

8 minutes ago, Miamay said:

hows it looking for Liverpool?

 I wouldn't say guaranteed snow, it could well surprise us though.

[Darren Bown]

Metoffice have been all over the place with this. They often struggle with a NW flow and underestimate the showers in the region.

 

Seems to be the rain for the south has really pepped up on the runs. The winds for tomorrow were another surprise earlier today. Could be more surprises from this?!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Not too good imho. Any snow wont stick as the dews wont be cold enough. If the wave becomes a proper low then the circulation is opposite and we get an south easterley not a north westerly

Edited January 10, 2017 by Stratocumulus perlucidus

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Miamay said:

hows it looking for Liverpool?

In all seriousness, this is our best chance of seeing snow since March 2013. Thurs night / early Fri is our best chance. I think anything that falls before that for us will be sleet & hail.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

There wont be enough ppn 

[Frost HoIIow]

I don't think this will be sorted out till Thursday! ........really think it will be a nowcast situation.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Dire https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20170110;time=18;ext=69;file=uksnowdepth;sess=800e33bb8334035ad92c41378a444c60;

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Not too good imho. Any snow wont stick as the dews wont be cold enough. If the wave becomes a proper low then the circulation is opposite and we get an south easterley not a north westerly

I would not worry about the waved front regarding wind direction, I'm more concerned on how it affects us in terms of convection, really don't want time wasted for high cloud to clear for true proper convection to start again.

Of course still a little time left for it to be projected to be further South but that front helps no one really, snowfall will be very limited on it so I doubt the Southerners will welcome it with open arms, Rather it scoots off and leave the UK in the clean strong NW'ly flow.

As for Fridays feature, im mixed about it, I guess in a way if it is modelled further west, we do have slightly colder air so it could well be quite a snowy feature so I guess some chance is better than no chance.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Worst friday 13th ever lol

[Day 10]

Just now, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think this will be sorted out till Thursday! ........really think it will be a nowcast situation.

Yes FH. Changing by the hour. The longer term going by the ECM looking good too.

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

I would not worry about the waved front regarding wind direction, I'm more concerned on how it affects us in terms of convection, really don't want time wasted for high cloud to clear for true proper convection to start again.

Of course still a little time left for it to be projected to be further South but that front helps no one really, snowfall will be very limited on it so I doubt the Southerners will welcome it with open arms, Rather it scoots off and leave the UK in the clean strong NW'ly flow.

As for Fridays feature, im mixed about it, I guess in a way if it is modelled further west, we do have slightly colder air so it could well be quite a snowy feature so I guess some chance is better than no chance.

Yes that front has really developed on the 18z GFS. I agree with you, I wish it'd sod off to the south. If it tracks any further north then it really could cut off some of our shower potential! 

[chicken soup]

5 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Not too good imho. Any snow wont stick as the dews wont be cold enough. If the wave becomes a proper low then the circulation is opposite and we get an south easterley not a north westerly

Surely the north westerly is a certainty..it starts tommorow night.

[Day 10]

Hi Res 4pm thurs.

[Darren Bown]

Still reading suggestions of an easterly next week on the chart discussion.

[Day 10]

7pm thurs

[dodge]

...another one who would much prefer the showers to be fed by a north/north westerly, rather than this low coming up from the south west mixing out the colder air, and we'll probably be on it's northern edge, so precip will most likely be light.... but could we have a second bite at the snow-cherry on Friday?   Still prefer the beefy snow showers option though.

[WillinGlossop]

Hirlam 18z has 5-9cm by thursday evening for round these parts.....

[robbo88]

Wouldn't it be ironic if, we all thought we might get pasted by snow off a north westerly. And the southerners end up doing better this weekend. 

[Spah1]

Run this through. Looks good to me. Assuming it's going to be cold enough. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, robbo88 said:

Wouldn't it be ironic if, we all thought we might get pasted by snow off a north westerly. And the southerners end up doing better this weekend. 

I'll be really surprised if there is much to this front in the South in all honesty, if a shallow low does develop then evap cooling could come into play but everything will be soaking wet before hand as per usual, the cold air tucks in behind any PPN. Oh well, let them get excited about the possibility of some cold rain/sleet/wet snow.

The annoying thing will be in the forecasts, all the focus will shift towards that possibility and forgetting to mention the fact lowland parts of Scotland/Northern Ireland and Northern England will actually see proper snow falling and settling.

[wrightc23]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

The annoying thing will be in the forecasts, all the focus will shift towards that possibility and forgetting to mention the fact lowland parts of Scotland/Northern Ireland and Northern England will actually see proper snow falling and settling.

That's been very noticeable today already, the BBC forecast hardly discusses anything else. Oh yes cold in the north, maybe even snow but look at this system skirting the south....

[WillinGlossop]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'll be really surprised if there is much to this front in the South in all honesty, if a shallow low does develop then evap cooling could come into play but everything will be soaking wet before hand as per usual, the cold air tucks in behind any PPN. Oh well, let them get excited about the possibility of some cold rain/sleet/wet snow.

The annoying thing will be in the forecasts, all the focus will shift towards that possibility and forgetting to mention the fact lowland parts of Scotland/Northern Ireland and Northern England will actually see proper snow falling and settling.

Completely agree.... i remember when i was living in herne bay in 2004 (?) when 1-2cm of snow on m1 caused chaos with accidents and motorway closed.... media always focuses on se/london whilst scotland etc has 30cm etc....