North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[AderynCoch]

This is definitely more like it. Crispy days, thick frosts and fog thrown in for good measure.

[weatherobsuk]

Almost all surfaces covered in frost overnight, no sign of this promised 'widespread fog' though that the papers have been hyping about for the past two days, although sat24 does show the odd patch in the Midlands and NE. Another widespread frost overnight given the crystal-clear blue skies. 

[Backtrack]

Met office text forecasts suggested cloudy today and cloudy tonight with cloud sinking down from the north? Can't see that myself. Azores blue skies & cold. 

Edited December 29, 2016 by Backtrack

[SparkleS]

8 hours ago, Backtrack said:

Met office text forecasts suggested cloudy today and cloudy tonight with cloud sinking down from the north? Can't see that myself. Azores blue skies & cold. 

That's exactly how it is tonight here anyway. Last two nights been a really hard frost and ice and a slight snow flurry early hours of this morning.

[Chris.R]

850s are above 0  so I don't think snow is possible. Freezing fog? 

[Day 10]

Just seen itv local forecast, 3c by Monday folks

[Chris.R]

OMG OMG OMG! The GFS 00z late next week looks brilliant! 500-1000 hPa thicknesses around 511 DAM, 850-1000 thicknesses below 1280 DAM and 850 temps of -9 or -10 for 2 days.  Also precipitation signals even this far out. Has the potential to bury us. 

@Day 10 I think changing your name has done the trick. 

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

OMG OMG OMG! The GFS 00z late next week looks brilliant! 500-1000 hPa thicknesses around 511 DAM, 850-1000 thicknesses below 1280 DAM and 850 temps of -9 or -10 for 2 days.  Also precipitation signals even this far out. Has the potential to bury us. 

@Day 10 I think changing your name has done the trick. 

Yes Chris looking very good,my only concern is UKMO not on board and that is a big concern for me,However GFS and ECM Are yet again

both singing from the same Hymn Sheet.

C.S

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Yes Chris looking very good,my only concern is UKMO not on board and that is a big concern for me,However GFS and ECM Are yet again

both singing from the same Hymn Sheet.

C.S

Yep,  I have a feeling it will come on board this evening. We'll have to wait and see though. Also I still see potential for back edge snow on Sunday morning is the cold front seems to come in earlier and take more advantage of the diurnal minimum. 

[wrightc23]

The last couple of days have been great, a real wintry feel, frost, fog and mist lifting to reveal beautiful blue skies with a really crisp feeling. The excitement is building in the model output thread, at what point does the potential cold snap outlined by some of the models move towards reality? Sunday?

Edited December 30, 2016 by wrightc23

[iand61]

1 hour ago, wrightc23 said:

The last couple of days have been great, a real wintry feel, frost, fog and mist lifting to reveal beautiful blue skies with a really crisp feeling. The excitement is building in the model output thread, at what point does the potential cold snap outlined by some of the models move towards reality? Sunday?

Most models are still showing a colder, more wintry period of weather as we enter the first week or so of the New Year although how cold and whether snow is in the mix depends on which model you look at.

personally I want to see the UKMO move towards the Day After Tomorrow scenarios being shown by others and whilst I feel that on this occasion the UKMO has got it wrong, the reality will probably be a much more watered down version.......cold yes and possibly a bit of snow for some but nothing out of the ordinary and I'd imagine nothing to tell the grandchildren about in years to come.

as for how long we have to wait for clarification on where we are heading, I'd say your probably correct that by Sunday the picture should be getting much clearer although we all know that getting winter utopia in this country is notoriously difficult with reasons to fail popping up at the last minute so until I see heavy snow actually falling and settling I'm sitting on the fence.

 

[cheshire snow]

LOL 18hours of snow next Friday according to the 06GFS For the Region

C.S

[cheshire snow]

2 hours ago, wrightc23 said:

The last couple of days have been great, a real wintry feel, frost, fog and mist lifting to reveal beautiful blue skies with a really crisp feeling. The excitement is building in the model output thread, at what point does the potential cold snap outlined by some of the models move towards reality? Sunday?

Ha Ha another member from Northwich..were about are you matey Just so I can Steal some of your snow

I live near Hartford College

C.S

[wrightc23]

50 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Most models are still showing a colder, more wintry period of weather as we enter the first week or so of the New Year although how cold and whether snow is in the mix depends on which model you look at.

personally I want to see the UKMO move towards the Day After Tomorrow scenarios being shown by others and whilst I feel that on this occasion the UKMO has got it wrong, the reality will probably be a much more watered down version.......cold yes and possibly a bit of snow for some but nothing out of the ordinary and I'd imagine nothing to tell the grandchildren about in years to come.

as for how long we have to wait for clarification on where we are heading, I'd say your probably correct that by Sunday the picture should be getting much clearer although we all know that getting winter utopia in this country is notoriously difficult with reasons to fail popping up at the last minute so until I see heavy snow actually falling and settling I'm sitting on the fence.

 

Thanks for that, there will be a lot of disappointment on the model output thread if we do see the almost inevitable downgrade. I tend to limit my excitement now until T+96 at the earliest. It's still looking a much better prospect than much of last winter. It's nice to see a variance of output's for once.

[wrightc23]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Ha Ha another member from Northwich..were about are you matey Just so I can Steal some of your snow

I live near Hartford College

C.S

Just near Davenham. I'm not getting my hopes up for snow given our location and track record!

[cheshire snow]

13 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

Just near Davenham. I'm not getting my hopes up for snow given our location and track record!

LOL

Just keep a look out on further runs T168(todays 06z) a Classic Cheshire Gap streamer set up with a NW Flow

Classic set up for us in Cheshire

C.S

[davacr123]

This is the current met long range forecast 

6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Jan 2017 to Thursday 12 Jan 2017:

It'll be cold and bright across England and Wales on Tuesday, although cloudier and milder conditions across Scotland will gradually move southwards across the whole of the UK, with some rain, mainly over the hills. Largely cloudy, milder and windier for most on Wednesday, with some brighter spells in the east. Thursday and Friday will be dominated by a west to north-westerly flow, with wet and windy conditions moving from west to east, with gales in places. Into the weekend and next week we'll gradually see high pressure building to the west, which will allow colder conditions to develop for many, with some wintry showers in places, particularly around coastal areas. Chilly by night, with widespread frost and fog, which may persist during the day.

Updated at: 1249 on Thu 29 Dec 2016

UK Outlook for Friday 13 Jan 2017 to Friday 27 Jan 2017:

Signals suggest that the most likely scenario for this period is high pressure being dominant across most of the UK. Leading to increasing dry and quiet spells, and a greater likelihood of cold weather with frost and fog by night. However, there may be a few spells of unsettled weather, most likely in north-western parts. In general, temperatures are likely to be cold for the time of year in those settled periods. However, it may turn milder at times in association with any periods of more unsettled weather in the northwest.

Updated at: 1249 on Thu 29 Dec 2016

[cheshire snow]

Just for Fun Obviously

Friday 11th January going by 06z Gives me a maximum day time Temperature of --2c now that deserves a few

And a overnight Min of -11c which I suppose with any snow cover is very possible

C.S

Edited December 30, 2016 by cheshire snow

[snowp dog]

Looks like MetO are trending the forecast a bit colder now, however I do prefer our cold to come from the North West, when there is more chance of Snow, an easterly is usually dry and cold!

All in all looking good for some 2017 cold I hope!!!

[wrightc23]

4 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL

Just keep a look out on further runs T168(todays 06z) a Classic Cheshire Gap streamer set up with a NW Flow

Classic set up for us in Cheshire

C.S

I wish, straight through the Liverpool Bay. I seem to recall a great one in Jan 2010?

[Miamay]

Fingers crossed for us !! 

[cheshire snow]

LOL not the best 12z runs UKMO stubborn and the GFS has taken a step towards it

No Atlantic or mild muck though.

C.S

[Spah1]

Where the hell has that 2nd Northerly gone on the 12z GFS!!! 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Spah1

[wrightc23]

Basically the technical term is 'pants' frankly. I assume by later this evening it'll all have aligned with the UKMO after all? 

[cheshire snow]

5 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Where the hell has that 2nd Northerly gone on the 12z GFS!!! 

Back on the 18z...don't think I would put money on wether it will be there in the morning 

C.S