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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if its the warm sea temps still that are inhibiting any brutal runs coming out.

It's November 18th....

 

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Another "happy ending"?

gfsnh-0-384.png?6

Extreme FI but the more we see this becoming a recurring theme the better in my opinion, as long as it begins to creep into the more reliable timescales of course.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if its the warm sea temps still that are inhibiting any brutal runs coming out.

gfs-6-348.png?6

Theres plenty of brutal cold around, we just arent getting the favourable airflow just yet.

gfs-15-336.png?6

GFS somehow manages to keep the cold air away from the UK on this run, will all change next run, but there is certainly plenty of cold to tap into now 

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Again it looks a very interesting trend from the Gfs 6z later this month into Dec if you are a coldie!:cold:

Next week looks chilly too, very little in the way of mild on this run, hopefully the daffs won't be blooming in December like last year!:shok::D

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prectypeuktopo (1).png

daffodil-snow-thumb-330x247-14182.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if its the warm sea temps still that are inhibiting any brutal runs coming out.

I was thinking similar. With warmer sea Temps in the north Sea and with the high pressures position could provide some snow to eastern areas.

The reason I say this is because in 1995 I remember a similar set up to the current 06z GFS at T+162 hrs.

Back in 1995 we had a  similar high pressure drawing in an Easterly wind and the North Sea temperature was around 9.oc.

For the eastern side of Northern England we had 3 days of heavy snow which up till T+92 hrs wasn't forecast

.25 miles inland was  just a dusting of snow. But eastern areas close to the coast have 19"inches

That year produced some of the biggest snow flakes I've ever seen even to date.

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Forgive me if I have this totally wrong but although there are 'good' synoptics being shown I'm not yet seeing anything amazing in terms of wintry temperatures. Am I missing something?

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3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

A little more commentary would have been helpful. I assume that shows the GFS Op at the higher end of the temperature range compared to the ensemble suite?

Bit busy - sorry

no interest in the gfs op at this range 

just noting the clustering below 5c for T2 maxes in London (some well below 5c)

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Just now, Seasonality said:

Forgive me if I have this totally wrong but although there are 'good' synoptics being shown I'm not yet seeing anything amazing in terms of wintry temperatures. Am I missing something?

As the upcoming easterly next week shows, it's not just the sypnotics that are important

however, the T850 anomolys for end Nov/early Dec are negative and if we the cold pattern does verify and the less cold runs drop out then you will see wintry temps 

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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Forgive me if I have this totally wrong but although there are 'good' synoptics being shown I'm not yet seeing anything amazing in terms of wintry temperatures. Am I missing something?

No it's potential for upstream severe cold we are looking at, no guarantees but it looks much better than the same time last year when all the LRF's were doom and gloom mild mush which turned out to be spot on..it's a different and better situation this time with MLB likely to be followed by HLB.

Edited by Frosty.
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Just now, Frosty. said:

No it's potential for upstream cold we are looking at, no guarantees but it looks much better than the same time last year when all the LRF's were doom and gloom mild mush which turned out to be spot on..it's a different and better situation this time with MLB likely to be followed by HLB.

Thanks @Frosty. and @bluearmy Definitely a better situation being forecast but I'll be keeping my powder dry until the mild runs start to drop out as bluearmy has alluded to.

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Bluearmy, with regards to your post about London temps, does this not suggest an easterly into early Dec? Hence Scandi high?

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No it's potential for upstream severe cold we are looking at, no guarantees but it looks much better than the same time last year when all the LRF's were doom and gloom mild mush which turned out to be spot on..it's a different and better situation this time with MLB likely to be followed by HLB.

Nail on head.  If it were February, things would be different as we'd be running out of time somewhat.  But the reality is we're only mid november, and to put anything other than a positive spin on what we're seeing modelled right now would be rather silly. 

 

Relax and enjoy the output :drunk-emoji:

Edited by weatherguy
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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Arpege shows the chance of some snow in the south on Monday night

CxinCFaXcAI6bSq.jpgCxinCFaWQAAfFg3.jpgCxinCFdWIAA3DYx.jpg

That would be great for me in Shaftesbury.

Im sure you all know this anyway but don't get caught up in the specifics of the runs being shown, that is irrelevant at this stage. Its much more important to see the broader pattern and the displacement of the cold to the north that appears now to be heading south. Each run the specifics change bit its the pattern  that's key - take this weekends low pressure for example still not 100% sure how powerful it will be or where its path will end up.

For now the models are improving with regards to HLB and with the sea temps being still fairly warm and the cold air coming south who knows what kind of systems that will produce at short notice - something the models cant forecast right now! all in all excellent broader pattern forming :)

Edited by ShaftsburySnow
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Looks like Sunday's low is more or less nailed on now in terms and strength and its general positioning. could well be a miserable day for those on the East coast with heavy rain and gale force Northerly winds!

The secondary low is still more uncertain, would rather this was further East so we get the lighter NW'ly drift which will bring clearer chillier air which could lead to clear cold conditions at night if the high does topple in.

What happens after that is anyone's guess, the GFS FI's charts don't interest me but the potential for a trough to drop down into Scandi with some cold air does and whilst things remain messy over in the North Atlantic then who knows what could happen although again I will remain skeptical about Greenland highs via ridging until much closer to the time.

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3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Looks like Sunday's low is more or less nailed on now in terms and strength and its general positioning. could well be a miserable day for those on the East coast with heavy rain and gale force Northerly winds!

The secondary low is still more uncertain, would rather this was further East so we get the lighter NW'ly drift which will bring clearer chillier air which could lead to clear cold conditions at night if the high does topple in.

What happens after that is anyone's guess, the GFS FI's charts don't interest me but the potential for a trough to drop down into Scandi with some cold air does and whilst things remain messy over in the North Atlantic then who knows what could happen although again I will remain skeptical about Greenland highs via ridging until much closer to the time.

Im more inclined to go with the Greenland block. There is too much energy/cold air coming in to Scandinavia for any height rises to maintain its self there. Saying that though its tricky to say where the cold trough will feature.  

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Hahhaa...is it me or is it every time I look into deepest FI on the GFS every time the -5 isotherm looks like it will cover the UK a beloved short wave/trough develops from no where and keeps the 'real' cold from our shores, I've noticed this several time, I know it's much better synoptically to have such a weak/disorganised PV but a little worrying we're not even seeing juicy FI charts, just potential and that's it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

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13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Bluearmy, with regards to your post about London temps, does this not suggest an easterly into early Dec? Hence Scandi high?

 No for two reaosns

 a) I have seen the mean/anomaly charts and there is no easterly possible away from a small cluster 

b) the Dutch chart does not show clustering below freezing which would be the case with an easterly given the lowish London temps 

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4 minutes ago, ShaftsburySnow said:

Im more inclined to go with the Greenland block. There is too much energy/cold air coming in to Scandinavia for any height rises to maintain its self there. Saying that though its tricky to say where the cold trough will feature.  

As the ECM shows, there is some Scandi heights there and the PV looks disturbed over Greenland so we could even get a bit of both. I probably would rather have a Greenland high first and let a major cold trough dig down into Scandi then build any highs around Scandi so we don't send too much WAA into the Arctic before the real cold has a chance to drop down,

Still a long way to go before we even know what direction we will be heading though but hopefully we will have more encouraging ECM runs coming up as confidence will start to build something could happen.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 No for two reaosns

 a) I have seen the mean/anomaly charts and there is no easterly possible away from a small cluster 

b) the Dutch chart does not show clustering below freezing which would be the case with an easterly given the lowish London temps 

Just wondering how strong the Atlantic ridge at the end of the eps mean and how far North does it get, I take it you haven't seen the clusters.

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 No for two reaosns

 a) I have seen the mean/anomaly charts and there is no easterly possible away from a small cluster 

b) the Dutch chart does not show clustering below freezing which would be the case with an easterly given the lowish London temps 

For 5c or lower in London in early December without an E'ly, two possibilities:

1) A strong and fairly direct N'ly.

2) Anticyclonic inversion - fog and frost struggling to clear until late morning/early afternoon.

I suspect the latter, sorry, snow fans.

 

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 No for two reaosns

 a) I have seen the mean/anomaly charts and there is no easterly possible away from a small cluster 

b) the Dutch chart does not show clustering below freezing which would be the case with an easterly given the lowish London temps 

Thanks for that BA :)

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6 minutes ago, stodge said:

For 5c or lower in London in early December without an E'ly, two possibilities:

1) A strong and fairly direct N'ly.

2) Anticyclonic inversion - fog and frost struggling to clear until late morning/early afternoon.

I suspect the latter, sorry, snow fans.

 

The answer is 1 stodge though not sure it would be strong - depends on our proximity to the scandi trough to the east and ridge to the west

Edited by bluearmy
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