Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Eskimo]

Well well well, what has the ECM got here? Snow?

[Hotspur62]

Have been following this thread for about 5 years,more espicially in Winter than Summer and tbh i think there has been more interest in the last 2 weeks over winter prospects than there was for the whole of last winter.!!. We have to remember that it is only 16th November folks and having a West Based NAO saga does make me laugh.As SM says lets hopefully see the High materalise first before people start throwing toys out the pram.I remember IF specifically say quite a few days now that signs of Blocking may start showing their hand late November if indeed that does happen.People need to calm down and this winter could turn out to being a Borg V Big Mac epic in terms of Model watching so dont get too het up on November 16th!!.Just looking at the NH as a whole things are so much more positive than the last 3 winters in terms of cold and i honestly feel come March the UK would have received a decent amount of snow to keep most happy on this Forum

[Banbury]

GFS is a beauty really , evolves in that way and we will soon get the cold here . Lets see where ECM lands obviously 120 onwards really is FI currently but we can't sniff at what is being churned out at the moment .

 

Pause to remember last year........................................or perhaps not

Edited November 16, 2016 by Banbury

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Well well well, what has the ECM got here? Snow?

only substantive precip into sussex, kent and Suffolk and wet, not white

Edited November 16, 2016 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Well well well, what has the ECM got here? Snow?

RAIN!

[Jonan92]

Gfs is alone, ECM keeps delivering the same charts, no WAA

[Mucka]

Hard to believe GFS is right against all the other models but we'll see.

 

So long as we can trap the trough to our South all is not lost even with a flatter upstream.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

actually ecm 12z is marginally more amplified off ne America at day 5 but the system will still break through to flatten the ridge somewhat

and the second system at day 5 1/2 brings snow to the s wales mntns and Exmoor plus a slight cover for other high ground in the sw

and at T138, the w midlands and central wales plus the hills around staffs

Edited November 16, 2016 by bluearmy

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Just now, Mucka said:

Hard to believe GFS is right against all the other models but we'll see.

I would like to say it's hard to believe the GFS and almost it's entire ensemble suite is wrong but then Murphy's Law might show its hand just when we don't want it to!

[Jonan92]

Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

I would like to say it's hard to believe the GFS and almost it's entire ensemble suite is wrong but then Murphy's Law might show its hand just when we don't want it to!

Well, the ensembles many times follow the main one, so it's not hard to believe

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean continues to indicate below average temperatures in the extended range with height rises to the w / nw and a scandi trough with scope there for a wintry spell during late Nov / early Dec.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Just now, Jonan92 said:

Well, the ensembles many times follow the main one, so it's not hard to believe

Yes I have seen it happen before on more than one occasion unfortunately!

Still at least we are not looking at a December 2015 scenario regardless of which model turns out to be correct!

[gottolovethisweather]

18 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Come on, who's drawn boobies on the ECM chart? It's not big and it's not clever. 

Even at D4 we all know it can still go TITS up, so that's why I reckon. 

Edited November 16, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

Regarding the GEFS we've been here before. The issue for those is that if they've got the same error upto T120hrs regarding the ne USA then the evolution in the medium term will also be wrong because that's key to how the high develops near Iceland.

The upstream pattern on the ECM still looks reasonably amplified, perhaps it might clutch victory from the jaws of defeat at T168hrs.

[Mucka]

It's like they have swapped GFS and ECM and not told us.

Usually GFS that goes shortwave crazy.

[doctor32]

Think these lows spinning up from the south west to the south of the uk could well produce some frontal snow on northern flank depending on how far north the get. More especially to higher ground, but to low levels too... certainly an interesting period coming up this weekend, and things will likely change on the model output right upto 24hrs out.

[Mucka]

JMA somewhere in the middle

[January Snowstorm]

Well the ECM turns a promising situation into a yawnfest.

My money's on the gfs

[northwestsnow]

Ecm having nothing to do with Gfs it seems, im starting to think this Russian high is spoiling things, and its also pumping some very mild air into scandy|russia destroying any snow build up...

[gottolovethisweather]

Day one of this second colder than average spell this November starts tomorrow for everyone with widespread wintry type showers around. Should the ECM 12z op be believed, there aren't many mild days around to be had either for the next ten days. Marginal and snow at elevation are buzz words you'll need to get used to hearing in the coming days. Enjoy the fun guys n gals; some will certainly strike it lucky with temporary accumulations of the white stuff! A bit of a proper autumnal mix for most methinks.

Edited November 16, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

im starting to think this Russian high is spoiling things

Not for the first time in last few years.....for sure.

[igloo]

well the ECM and the UKMO look nothing like the GFS so we will likely see the climedown over the next 2-3 runs from the GFS if anything. the ECM has a toppler which could well become a bartlett in the later stages something like  the GEM

Edited November 16, 2016 by igloo

[Snowman.]

Just now, igloo said:

well the ECM and the UKMO look nothing like the GFS so we will likely see the climedown over the next 2-3 runs from the GFS is anything the ECM has a toppler with could well become a bartlett in the later stages something like  the GEM

Its been reversed, with the ECM/UKMO being flatter and the GFS being more amplified usually its the other way around. The GFS has also been increasing amplification not the other way around. 

[nick sussex]

That Russian high is huge, it goes from Europe right the way through to the Pacific. It needs to do one and fast and let some cold into Scandi. In terms of scratching around for some interest from the ECM, the low pressure in the nw Med was about it.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

That Russian high is huge, it goes from Europe right the way through to the Pacific. It needs to do one and fast and let some cold into Scandi. In terms of scratching around for some interest from the ECM, the low pressure in the nw Med was about it.

Aye, for all the positive backgrpund signals the day 9 chart is pretty poor, in fact its a pretty positive NAO !