Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Mucka]

GEM still not having it.

If ECM and JMA stick to their guns tonight GFS will be somewhat isolated with the stronger Atlantic ridge

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, igloo said:

it makes you wonder is its even worth viewing the GFS in the first place unless the the UKMO and ECM show the same thing which the dont its likely another example of its faults and there has been many over the past 10 years of model watching

It seems to do Greenland highs easier than the other models in the medium terms whereas Greenland highs on the ECM seem quite easy in the much longer range, either way, always remain a bit skeptical about them because I do see it time and time again of Greenland highs not fully coming off.

The GFS does show why a weak PV can also have its negatives, we are feeding off scraps regarding cold so even when you get the set up right, the cold is not always there, of course that Russian high would do little help either sending mild air into Scandi. 

The UKMO at 96 hours actually looked fine and amplified but it goes a bit wrong after that unfortunately.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 12hrs run an example of how to have one of those 5 star ingredients being high pressure over southern Greenland and Iceland but still end up with zip in terms of interest. Please someone nuke that Russian high, its impossible to advect any proper cold into Europe with that limpet hanging around. Of course if the Russian high was orientated in a way to advect some cold then you can be sure it would give up the ghost quickly.

 

Very blocked though and I understand the frustration with such amazing synoptic producing so little cold (initially). However if we are in this position last week of November I would be happy.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 12hrs run an example of how to have one of those 5 star ingredients being high pressure over southern Greenland and Iceland but still end up with zip in terms of interest. Please someone nuke that Russian high, its impossible to advect any proper cold into Europe with that limpet hanging around. Of course if the Russian high was orientated in a way to advect some cold then you can be sure it would give up the ghost quickly.

This may be better though Nick, with the block being further North it may have better orientation to pull in the cold from central Siberia (quicker I mean)

[Ali1977]

No coldie should be grumbling at this run, late Nov and to me this looks great.  Look at all that low pressure in the Med, exactly where you'd want it.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

What a wonderful solution for late november

and some coldie fun to come courtesy of the cold trough that dropped into scandi as the Russian ridge relaxed its hold that bit quicker

more variations on a theme 

how many ways are there to get to Vladivostok??

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No doom and gloom folks.  The Synoptics hemispherically are in the ball park we need to be.

 

1. It isn't resolved

2. Still mid Nov 

3. Still got this potential beauty of a storm to accurately track

4. I don't want that Russian Block to clear off.  I think that will be a big plus hemispherically in the winter yet to come.  

I have some pretty decent expectations for chunks of Dec, but not a total arctic lock out.  

To add.....12z looking tasty.....and incredible massive deep cold over Russia and Siberia

BFTP

 

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mucka]

Two more bouts of WAA to reinforce an already mighty block, oh GFS you tease. 

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No coldie should be grumbling at this run, late Nov and to me this looks great.  Look at all that low pressure in the Med, exactly where you'd want it.

Very true Ali, take a look at the surface temps in central Europe from around 198h onwards, getting nice and chilly.

[Daniel*]

I'd bank this run in a heartbeat - you would be a lunatic not to. Very cold air incoming from the north east.

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

It seems to do Greenland highs easier than the other models in the medium terms whereas Greenland highs on the ECM seem quite easy in the much longer range, either way, always remain a bit skeptical about them because I do see it time and time again of Greenland highs not fully coming off.

The GFS does show why a weak PV can also have its negatives, we are feeding off scraps regarding cold so even when you get the set up right, the cold is not always there, of course that Russian high would do little help either sending mild air into Scandi. 

The UKMO at 96 hours actually looked fine and amplified but it goes a bit wrong after that unfortunately.

All the cold that should be in the arctic circle has migrated to Siberia: as you say, the downside of a weak vortex. I presume the high is as a result of the frigid temperatures over the snow fields so won't be going anywhere soon. An incredible cold anomaly for a month before winter proper.

[nick sussex]

Finally the limpet Russian high departs the scene towards day 10. Lets hope it does indeed do that and we can look to the ne for some interest.

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Finally the limpet Russian high departs the scene towards day 10. Lets hope it does indeed do that and we can look to the ne for some interest.

Interested?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Finally the limpet Russian high departs the scene towards day 10. Lets hope it does indeed do that and we can look to the ne for some interest.

Wax and wane Nick. Be nice to have it retrogress west later in deep winter

 

BFTP

[Mucka]

So eyes down for ECM and JMA because as it stands GFS is on its own with HLB with the others going for MLB somewhere close to or over the UK

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

All the cold that should be in the arctic circle has migrated to Siberia: as you say, the downside of a weak vortex. I presume the high is as a result of the frigid temperatures over the snow fields so won't be going anywhere soon. An incredible cold anomaly for a month before winter proper.

Having the PV over Siberia is probably near next to useless which is what this Russian high is forecast to do, it will eventually push that large PV over Western Russia right out of the way and with a warm Arctic, you look on our side of the hemisphere and your looking, wheres the cold air?

Got to admit, the GFS run in the medium to long range is the stuff to be made of for cold lovers but only if you got a meaningful PV coming down from the Arctic but we simply havant and won't because of the weak PV, would just be a waste sadly.

That said we may see something more like the ECM/GEM where it is flatter in general but by no means a full on disaster.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Geordiesnow

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

So eyes down for ECM and JMA because as it stands GFS is on its own with HLB with the others going for MLB somewhere close to or over the UK

Yup, I will add that all bar 2 of the GEFS perbs follow the op at 114 with the WAA into Greeny.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yup, I will add that all bar 2 of the GEFS perbs follow the op at 114 with the WAA into Greeny.

Was about to say that myself could a whole suit be wrong????

[swfc]

haha 12 z has nearly wind reversal going on and still has the uk in mild air!!!f.so its onto the weekend to see where things pan out

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Having the PV over Siberia is probably near next to useless which is what this Russian high is forecast to do, it will eventually push that large PV over Western Russia right out of the way and with a warm Arctic, you look on our side of the hemisphere and your looking, wheres the cold air?

Got to admit, the GFS run in the medium to long range is the stuff to be made of for cold lovers but only if you got a meaningful PV coming down from the Arctic but we simply havant and won't because of the weak PV, would just be a waste sadly.

That said we may see something more like the ECM/GEM where it is flatter in general but by no means a full on disaster.

I don't understand the concern here. It is much better to be over there then festering on Greenland! If you've been reading GP post that Russian high has a big role in further undermining the PV it means sod all if the high Arctic is abnormally warm. If we are picking up a cold feed from the northeast/east off the continent, the continent will turn progressively colder. The WAA to our north/west is what is crucial.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Changing Skies

[northwestsnow]

Gfs is really interesting, but its chalk and cheese compared to ukmo, can gfs Donald the Euros? Hope so !

Edited November 16, 2016 by northwestsnow

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Was about to say that myself could a whole suit be wrong????

Its the GFS, of course.

[SMU]

Quote

 

Just to add to the comments

ive beem looking at the models for circa 15 years -

There have been many faux pa's, false dawns & cock ups - ive still got a 12z GFS run from 2005 which was epic but delivered zip-

There has been face offs ECM v GFS / UKMO etc etc & the GFS usually fails - more especially in Scandi High scenarios-

However for Greenland ridging / Highs we probably have around 10 'true' examples over the 15 years & the GFS has perhaps performed just slightly better than the Euros-

Its this one specific scenario of ridging out of central atlantic / Azores it does seem to perform well-

Also at 138 tonight the ensembles have sharpened up the ridge further supporting the OP-

current odds of GFS being correct 60/40 just ahead of the Euros...

S

PS west  / East based NAO - lets ensure the high actually arrives first...

[Zakos]

Looking at the 12z GFS mean, looks as if the Russian High is causing us to be stuck in a continental, but warm airflow.

As soon as the Russian High decays and heads east, we start to draw in an easterly feed from the continent.The block backs west and low heights start to deepen over europe, puting the uk into a cold airflow - a consistent theme from GFS.

Not a bad looking mean at all at 288+... lets hope the ECM leans this way tonight.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by Zakos

[Mucka]

Looks like ECM going for the low to stay further South again.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka