Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Ventnor Viking]

 

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Why would tracking west cause a strengthening of the jet?

I would expect a track east/northeast would strenghten the jet.

sorry I meant to say track east to northeast - good spot!

[bobbydog]

7 minutes ago, terrier said:

All pretty standard fair then Ian for late autumn early winter. Hopefully the glosea model will continue with its blocking theme into Dec. But as ever we could be on the wrong side of any blocking bringing just slightly below temps for Dec. All looks very standard at moment. Don't think that Russian high is helping matters regarding our tiny island. 

No. Not at all. We have blocking scenarios of all types being modelled. Long range models suggesting this is likely to continue. The PV is in bits, some places have had snow already and we're only half way through November. There is a very high chance of an SSW in the near future. It should be wet and stormy at this time of year, - it's not. So no, there is nothing "standard" about the weather right now. Far from it.....

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

No. Not at all. We have blocking scenarios of all types being modelled. Long range models suggesting this is likely to continue. The PV is in bits, some places have had snow already and we're only half way through November. There is a very high chance of an SSW in the near future. It should be wet and stormy at this time of year, - it's not. So no, there is nothing "standard" about the weather right now. Far from it.....

Maybe standard 'seventies' November fare then!

 

[Grimers]

16 minutes ago, karyo said:

Why would tracking west cause a strengthening of the jet?

I would expect a track east/northeast would strenghten the jet.

That's what I thought, a high or low moving W would cause the jet stream to buckle and move W, it makes sense.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Grimers

[WINTRY WALES]

Sorry quick question and apologies for it being in this thread but always a quick response in here.....what has happened to chionomaniac??

Loved his analysis...especially regarding the strat etc...

[weirpig]

44 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Was looking at that, keeps the 'colder' upper air temperatures on its northern flank, however it's quite hard to see what's happening when the frames are every 24 hours. Snow for the midlands? 
 

i Think Nouska posted this link earlier  it doesnt seem to show any snow from the ECM run  although it isnt the easiest to navigate. And indeed the chart could be from last nights ecm

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Edited November 16, 2016 by weirpig

[Frosty.]

Definitely a wintry flavour from the Gfs 6z up to and including the weekend, especially for scotland which shows proper cold and a risk of snow showers and then a threat of more persistent snow this weekend across northern high ground although it should be stressed, a lot of rain for low ground across the uk, nights look generally cold during the next 2/3 days and frosts look widespread and there is even a risk of sleet / snow showers reaching the south for a time, especially on hills and over the snow fields in the north, frosts look severe..it's another early taste of winter for the north of the uk at least.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Definitely a wintry flavour from the Gfs 6z up to and including the weekend, especially for scotland which shows proper cold and a risk of snow showers and then a threat of more persistent snow this weekend across northern high ground and while all this is going on, night frosts look widespread and over the snow fields in the north, frosts look severe..it's an early taste of winter for the north of the uk at least. 

Some pretty tasty GEFS Ps upto 216 too - P12 an example of what could happen.  Can't post it but I think there will be plenty of eye Candy in the set of GEFSs.

 

Can someone post the mean at 240 - IMPRESSIVE!!!

Edited November 16, 2016 by Ali1977

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Some pretty tasty GEFS Ps upto 216 too - P12 an example of what could happen.  Can't post it but I think there will be plenty of eye Candy in the set of GEFSs.

 

Can someone post the mean at 240 - IMPRESSIVE!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Some pretty tasty GEFS Ps upto 216 too - P12 an example of what could happen.  Can't post it but I think there will be plenty of eye Candy in the set of GEFSs.

 

Can someone post the mean at 240 - IMPRESSIVE!!!

[bradymk]

42 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Was looking at that, keeps the 'colder' upper air temperatures on its northern flank, however it's quite hard to see what's happening when the frames are every 24 hours. Snow for the midlands? 
 

Not got any full ECM access, but this graph is the ECM data for the Birmingham area for the weekend.

No snow but very cold Sunday, with temperatures not rising above 2/3c Sunday daytime. 

Probably a greater risk than snow is the potential for ice/some freezing rain at first in some locations. 

[feb1991blizzard]

I've now watched enough output and I'm making a brave early call on this, a warm Easterly followed by a west based -NAO, slightly below average temps but no significant snow event out until second week of December, still optimism down the line for something better though.

[Grimers]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I've now watched enough output and I'm making a brave early call on this, a warm Easterly followed by a west based -NAO, slightly below average temps but no significant snow event out until second week of December, still optimism down the line for something better though.

You never know, as CreweCold posted a while back, his thoughts were centered on January and February. All hope is not lost, yet.

[tight isobar]

^^ one would say maybe even a little pessimistic! . Given current situ..anything is possible. 

Im sure the models will begin a more focused look in the very nearr future now.

Im somewhat astonished' by the pessimism' given current output! ?

Edited November 16, 2016 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Grimers said:

You never know, as CreweCold posted a while back, his thoughts were centered on January and February. All hope is not lost, yet.

Forget February, the atmosphere could be nina like by then, we are more likely to get a Samantha Fox - 'I only wanna be with you' February than an 86 or a 91.

[Iceaxecrampon]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I've now watched enough output and I'm making a brave early call on this, a warm Easterly followed by a west based -NAO, slightly below average temps but no significant snow event out until second week of December, still optimism down the line for something better though.

 

Maybe if you go looking for it?

METO LATEST:

Sunday 20th November

A spell of more persistent snow and strong northeasterly winds, with potential blizzards on the hills but an uncertain forecast so please check back.

Issued at: 0246 on Wed 16 Nov 2016

[beng]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Forget February, the atmosphere could be nina like by then, we are more likely to get a Samantha Fox - 'I only wanna be with you' February than an 86 or a 91.

Feb 86 was a la nina. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, beng said:

Feb 86 was a la nina. 

 

but when as February delivered a proper tanking lately though. The problem with feb is you need circa -15c uppers to get the North sea into action. Its December - 20th Jan or bust this year although up here we can get blasted in March but most people cant.

Edited November 16, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

but when as February delivered a proper tanking lately though. The problem with feb is you need circa -15c uppers to get the North sea into action.

2009.

[Zakos]

.                

I'm not sure if Im reading this correctly, but I think the mean at +384 is very impressive, very weak vortex over Canadian arctic/ Greenland, all of the deep cold is pooling over Siberia. .    

      .          

Fantastic jet profile in FI.                    

    .                .

  Mean Anomaly from ECM and GFS at +240 screams blocked and southerly tracking jet , one thing I'm very confident if is no return to Atlantic conditions. ECM perhaps less keen to build heights over Greenland at this stage.            

Edited November 16, 2016 by Zakos

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Zakos said:

.                I'm not sure if Im reading this correctly, but I think the mean at +384 is very impressive, very weak vortex over Canadian arctic/ Greenland, all of the deep cold is pooling over Siberia. .             .          Fantastic jet profile in FI.                           .                Mean Anomaly from ECM and GFS at +240 screams blocked and southerly tracking jet , one thing I'm very confident if is no return to Atlantic conditions. ECM perhaps less keen to build heights over Greenland at this stage.            

That's a vary strong signal for the pattern to be too amplified and thus a West based pattern, the high is too far west.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, Grimers said:

You never know, as CreweCold posted a while back, his thoughts were centered on January and February. All hope is not lost, yet.

Hi Will,

My thoughts were never centred on any such thing..I think you're referring to my post the other day where I pointed out that the updated GLOSEA5 actually supported colder weather later in winter (Jan-Mar) period....

[Grimers]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Hi Will,

My thoughts were never centred on any such thing..I think you're referring to my post the other day where I pointed out that the updated GLOSEA5 actually supported colder weather later in winter (Jan-Mar) period....

Understood, my apologies.

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's a vary strong signal for the pattern to be too amplified and thus a West based pattern, the high is too far west.

 

Not sure where you got that from, the gfs mean pressure anomaly is indicative of an area of HP stretching from Greenland to Iceland and the ECM seems to show a height anomaly directly over the UK but nothing there exactly screams west based NAO.

[bluearmy]

The 06z gefs is smelling pretty west based late on with low pressure to our south for the time being but it's trending less wintry in that regard though if we do get cold uppers in before the blocking retrogresses too far then it could end up more eventful

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by bluearmy