Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Daniel*]

GFS going along with ECM still more amplified but it appears the initial ridge is going to be unsuccessful.

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[Frosty.]

Amazing Gfs 18z, there's snow somewhere in the uk from tomorrow through to early next week and some higher parts get significant falls, especially from the weekend low!

Edited November 15, 2016 by Frosty.

[January Snowstorm]

Well a climbdown of sorts by the gfs this evening. Whilst I usually praise the model the ECM may have got this one right.

Either way exceptional charts synoptically!! 

Also real interest here on a poss snow event this wknd. Right now (and it will probably change) snow is quite possible in Southern Ireland

Edited November 15, 2016 by January Snowstorm

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well a climbdown of sorts by the gfs this evening. Whilst I usually praise the model the ECM may have got this one right.

Either way exceptional charts synoptically!! 

Also real interest here on a poss snow event this wknd. Right now (and it will probably change) snow is quite possible in Southern Ireland

The GFS is nowhere near as bad as the ECM- even with the 'climbdown'. Nowhere near as good as the 12z but pressure is still higher around Iceland than either the ECM or GEM. I just hope it doesn't move further tomorrow

Edited November 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[Geordiesnow]

18Z does look more like the ECM but its only been a couple of runs today where the models were hinting at a true Greenland high, the signal mainly has been for a mid Atlantic high which brings the risk of cool NE'lies, any true Greenland high's has been in FI's but as we know in the model business, this sort of stuff can be fickle so nothing is nailed on yet.

It does look like the start of next week will start on a cool, wet(for some) and windy note, quite a change from the threat of a southerly. That deep low is still there and it will be interesting just how will this play out now, should be some interesting runs in this regard.

Also, IF the low hold off just enough, Saturday night into Sunday could well be the coldest night of the season so far for the highlands of Scotland I would imagine especially if there is snow cover which there should be.

[Ravelin]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well a climbdown of sorts by the gfs this evening. Whilst I usually praise the model the ECM may have got this one right.

Maybe, it's only one GFS run though so really we need to see what the next one or two bring. Not outwith the realms of possibility that it could swing back somewhat. If the ECM and GFS 0Z both come up with something similar around t144 then maybe we can  say we have the likely evolution. 

[Mucka]

Somewhere between tonight's ECM and previous runs

But so long as we get get a block of sorts to our W/NW it looks certain that a reload is on the cards bolstering any high pressure while a trough from the North begins to dig into Scandinavia N/Central Europe

As said previously it is classic retrograde pattern because the trough is trapped tot he south meaning the high can't sink.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Mucka

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing Gfs 18z, there's snow somewhere in the uk from tomorrow through to early next week and some higher parts get significant falls, especially from the weekend low!

Those charts look so laughable too me with those random white blobs appearing, I mean, if it snows in the Isle of man this weekend, I'll eat my hat with some socks also! Its looks way OTT and unlikely but some transient snowfall is possible from this low on the higher ground in Northern England but it will most definately be a snow quickly turning to rain event.

If the output does not change, it will be the rain rather than snowfall that will make the headlines for Sunday.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z is hardly disappointing, it shows snow falling somewhere in the uk for the next 7 days, even southwest and southern England see a bit of the white stuff..it's still November!

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM has a stronger, flatter jet profile to the N of the UK

Than the GFS 18z which is weaker and less flat-

The differences will be telling as the GFS will probably go on to be blocked whereas I'm really not sure the ECM would evolve as favourably as some are seemingly suggesting.

[Ali1977]

Crazy FI incoming !!

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the Greenland high again, different route, same result.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the Greenland high again, different route, same result.

Dogs dinner of a result 

Illustrates quite well, I think, the importance of that initial push of WAA into the west Greenland locale that was on the 12z GFS. Yes, the general atmosphere may remain supportive of blocking but we will probably have to faff around a while longer now to get the correct blocking in place to benefit us.

Edited November 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[Spah1]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 18z is hardly disappointing, it shows snow falling somewhere in the uk for the next 7 days, even southwest and southern England see a bit of the white stuff..it's still November!

You know as well as everyone else those charts are not even worth posting they are that useless. 

[bluearmy]

Everyone is so busy looking nw that they failed to see a cold trough drop in to the east and advecting west. 

lets see how the polar profile ends this run

agree re crewe's dogs dinner! 

Edited November 15, 2016 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Dogs dinner of a result 

The thing is though, the PV just isn't ramping up, blocking keeps prevailing or looking like prevailing, strat vortex destroyed, if this keeps happening we will hit the jackpot at some point, think about this as well, if we keep delaying it but keeping it on the cards, there will be better uppers to tap into, the further into winter, the more of a stonker it will be.

[ITSY]

Also I seem to recall that IF hinted that various ens were toying with the idea of an easterly into December....I think we've just seen why

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The thing is though, the PV just isn't ramping up, blocking keeps prevailing or looking like prevailing, strat vortex destroyed, if this keeps happening we will hit the jackpot at some point, think about this as well, if we keep delaying it but keeping it on the cards, there will be better uppers to tap into, the further into winter, the more of a stonker it will be.

No but it illustrates quite well, I think, the importance of that initial push of WAA into the west Greenland locale that was on the 12z GFS. Yes, the general atmosphere may remain supportive of blocking but we will probably have to faff around a while longer now to get the correct blocking in place to benefit us.

That's the point I was trying to make earlier. That WAA push allied to the vortex displacing east was THE opportunity for the foot in the door and to get us off to a flier.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Dogs dinner of a result 

I don't think we are likely to see any obvious pattern emerge in FI for a while. 

I'm happy though so long as we keep seeing the trend for amplification upstream, how many bites at the cherry doesn't really matter so long as we get there in the end and I think we would be mighty unlucky not see some form of cold outbreak late Nov early Dec.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You know as well as everyone else those charts are not even worth posting they are that useless. 

Any chart that shows snow is worth posting

Especially when the charts are for the next 7 days, very relevant to show those Gfs 18z charts.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The thing is though, the PV just isn't ramping up, blocking keeps prevailing or looking like prevailing, strat vortex destroyed, if this keeps happening we will hit the jackpot at some point, think about this as well, if we keep delaying it but keeping it on the cards, there will be better uppers to tap into, the further into winter, the more of a stonker it will be.

And that's the key, I'm more than happy to wait another few weeks,  If these synoptics continue to churn out, the odds of getting something noteworthy to these shores will be about as good as we could hope for.  The PV just can't get itself organised, and while this is the case nothing is off the table!

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Any chart that shows snow is worth posting

lol....Mr Snowaholic, you know very well that ppn charts are about as useful as a chocolate fireguard! .......but one can't help but admire a good old fashioned ramp...lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I don't think we are likely to see any obvious pattern emerge in FI for a while. 

I'm happy though so long as we keep seeing the trend for amplification upstream, how many bites at the cherry doesn't really matter so long as we get there in the end and I think we would be mighty unlucky not see some form of cold outbreak late Nov early Dec.

This is the UK, barring exceptions we are always unlucky 

Also, we have to take one of those bites of the cherry...otherwise we end up with a nearly winter (like we've seen before) and before you know it we're crying into our cornflakes in March! I'm not saying we won't grasp a better opportunity as we move into winter proper...I'm just reminding folk how quick the winter season flies by and completely agree with Nick S where he says if it can go wrong it will as far as UK weather is concerned.

 

Edited November 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[Yarmy]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The thing is though, the PV just isn't ramping up, blocking keeps prevailing or looking like prevailing, strat vortex destroyed, if this keeps happening we will hit the jackpot at some point, think about this as well, if we keep delaying it but keeping it on the cards, there will be better uppers to tap into, the further into winter, the more of a stonker it will be.

Huge Aleutian low reappearing in the latter stages too. 

[sorepaw1]

I'd of loved to have seen any of tonight's 18z  in FI last December. 

On that note I'm off to bed with my coco and cigarette. 

Goodnight folks.