Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

The main thing is the Atlantic looks pretty much out of the equation , lets be honest that is one big obstacle out of the way

 

 

 

P.S why does my screen keep scrolling down grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Annoying isn't it?All ends colder in the end

 

[ITSY]

You know the more I look at the last frame of the ECM, which I advise people against doing in the interests of sanity and having a sociable evening, the more I think it's an excellent chart for cold prospects - give it another 3/4 frames and that high would be spilling NWrd. VERY encouraging NAO forecast. Also encouraging ECM ens, with a solid downward trajectory.  Vardy just scored so perhaps things are beginning to align ...

Edited November 15, 2016 by ITSY

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What is?

 

BFTP

The WAA into Europe. Anyway on the subject of this evenings anomalies they remarkable agreement on the upper pattern and a confirmation on how the above is quite possible. In the 6-10 period all showing the marked amplification with ridging into Greenland, associated trough in the eastern Atlantic plunging way south to be centred NW of Iberia and the eastern European HP cell. There is some slight differences  with the orientation of the ridge/trough which could make some difference with the surface evolution, The detail of this is obviously to be decided but the inference is we will be looking at a pretty slack area of low pressure in the vicinity of the UK, centred to the south west with perhaps HP to the NW attempting to edge east thus resulting in the more unsettled weather being further south. Temps variable but generally around average.

 

Surprisingly the GEFS and NOAA are not in bad agreement in the ext. period but not the EPS so best left there.

Edited November 15, 2016 by knocker

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

The main thing is the Atlantic looks pretty much out of the equation , lets be honest that is one big obstacle out of the way

 

 

 

P.S why does my screen keep scrolling down grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Have pm'd mod myself.  Big issue with ads I'm getting.  Only site to do so

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, knocker said:

The WAA into Europe

Cheers Knocker

 

BFTP

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm well going by the ensembles at least again day 6/8/10

ECM

      

GEFs

      

 

A similar theme still and consistent with previous suites in placing an area of high pressure close to the UK towards the end of the month. The GEFs probably have a cold cluster at that point given the high is further north west but again the general theme looks dry and frosty for now.

Looking at the operationals at day 10 (ECM/GFS/GEM)

      

The GFS looks to be picking up and potentially overdoing a signal to destroy low heights over the Arctic, maybe it is a little too soon, the other two develop a mid-latitude high over the UK which looks reasonable given the ensembles. The GFS op could be right in a real tanking of the arctic oscillation with extensive blocking, but still I get the feeling that we might be waiting a little longer, the turn of the month looks to be the turning point still. In the end a UK based high is fine with and inversion quickly setting up, the ingredients are there to develop something better in the long term. A case of patience grasshopper comes to mind.

If anyone wants to get a feeling on how the ECM/GEM goes from here, that low west of Iberia is going to have a big impact in how things go from here and its likely interaction with the approaching Atlantic trough, there is only one way that trough will align and it isn't a positive tilt......

Edited November 15, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Have pm'd mod myself.  Big issue with ads I'm getting.  Only site to do so

As soon as a post containing twitter feed is posted it starts.

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

this is my point - why worry when its mid November, enjoy the ride. if it was late jan then I could understand the panic. mid lat high ?  yep, that's on the table and has been for a fair while. just another variation on a theme. the depression running across the top looks odd - lets see if that makes the para.

Yep - spot on. Come on folks - it's November 15 and winter isnt even within 240h of starting. Specifics now are of no consequence. The pattern and teleconnections are all important. Let's have a UK high now - no problem. Set's us up for December.

It wont come off though of course. ECM at 240 just about never comes off. Variations on a theme is all that matters.

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Nice Frosty, lets get those soil temps down with some nice sharp frosts, then the low  slides North and BOOM - maybe!! Quite possible though!!

Yes that's a very important point you make about the soil temps, a nice frosty high would soon sort that out and that's what the Gem and Ecm 12z show this evening!

I think the Ecm would go on to show retrogression followed by an Arctic plunge.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Frosty.

[SMU]

18z through 96 sees the low more negative tilted so its going to cut through on a more southerly track-

Midlands / wales poss snow event over higher ground - usual marginal parameters in the mix

[Ali1977]

Crucial few frames coming up if it is to follow the 12z or look more like the ECM!! Either way I think we'll get there but lets see!!  WAA or not to WAA is the question!!

[marksiwnc]

Up to 87hrs and there's hardly any change.  this is fascinating weather watching.  which one is correct.  my money is on GFS (again)  this has happened over the last few months and I think will happen until the vortex behaves luke it should do. (hopefully not until March 

[sorepaw1]

The chart below taken from the 12z GFS  shows quite a intense area of low pressure with squally ppn. With a squally mix of rain sleet Hail and snow to any level imo

Let's see what the 18z shows.

 

[Eskimo]

4 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

The chart below taken from the 12z GFS  shows quite a intense area of low pressure with squally ppn. With a squally mix of rain sleet Hail and snow to any level imo

Let's see what the 18z shows.

 

Not true. In fact it might be a push for snow to fall in the peak district. 

Edited November 15, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Not true. In fact it might be a push for snow to fall in the peak district. 

It's all conjecture anyway but I would have thought snow could fall and 1 or 2c 

[swfc]

imo the 18z at the 140-150 hr mark is losing the waa due to the low coming of the esb.looks flatter and less amplified.ecm look about it !!!

Edited November 15, 2016 by swfc

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, weirpig said:

It's all conjecture anyway but I would have thought snow could fall and 1 or 2c 

That's the dew point.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

imo the 18z at the 140-150 hr mark is loosing the waa due to the low coming of the esb.looks flatter and less amplified.ecm look about it !!!

Somewhere between looks about right IMO, tomorrow may bring a bit more cohesion!! 

Edited November 15, 2016 by Ali1977

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's the dew point.

Lol whoops lesson learned look twice before you post . Yeah like I was saying rain 

[sorepaw1]

I hope your right.

Even though the dew points you have shown don't support snow to lower levels in the heaviest showers I'd expect Hail to fall and a mixture of snow rain and sleet to fall. But generally rain to lower levels in the south.

But I agree to your post to a point thank you for input.

[fergieweather]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Not true. In fact it might be a push for snow to fall in the peak district. 

Yes, I've seen no compelling signal for anything other than transient upland snow on leading edge. The windstorm potential is the main issue, really, but 30% prob at this range of a flatter feature running further south, with strongest winds for France. 

[Frosty.]

Snow right down to the south coast and southwest on the Gfs 18z!

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm actually happy with this run - yes its crap so far but its more likel the ECM with the configuration of the troughing way to N/NW, so it will be interesting to see if it follows the ECM to 240 and then whether it still shows a stonking Greenland block deep in FI, if it does then it could well be one of those times where the end is easier to predict than the route.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I'm actually happy with this run - yes its crap so far but its more likel the ECM with the configuration of the troughing way to N/NW, so it will be interesting to see if it follows the ECM to 240 and then whether it still shows a stonking Greenland block deep in FI, if it does then it could well be one of those times where the end is easier to predict than the route.

Good point, would have liked to have seen another 48-72 hours on from the ECM. Let's see where this goes

[SMU]

Ignoring the inter run variability of blocking over Greenland - closer to home Scotland /NI could be looking at a fairly good cold spell coming up- maybe North of 7 days of polar air could return an average close on ~ 1/2c for the period...

Also notable today as suggested last night - that mild plume of southerlies has been shunted east into the continent- odds on now for a below ave November...

( remember the ridge heading towards Iceland can be Ok if it flattens off for a short while before retrograding back west - they are always the best GHs as they back move NW into the flow really disrupting it as opposed to a ridge moving NE out the states - thats exactly how Nov 10 started- retrograde high North west....

S

Edited November 15, 2016 by Steve Murr