Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I see your point and I wouldn't be in the slightest bit concerned if the ECM suite was similar to the GEFS suite and gather it supports it to some extent but have heard conflicting views, 1 or 2 rogue ECM op's V consistent Ensembles and I would back the latter but its difficult when you cant see all the data.

the ecm eps are trending towards the gefs but the extra 31 runs is muting the means re the upper ridges etc. that means (pardon the pun) that there is a fair spread re positioning but ian told us yesterday evening that the clustering was around two solutions which are both cold. the 46 dayers are both on the same cold page, glosea is consistent. of course you cannot pin down exactly how we will end up being affected by a cold pattern but to worry about developments over the next week seems a bit silly imo. like I said before, It will take dramatic changes to affect the background evolution which brings cold to the mid latitudes and the 12z ecm op isn't going to bring about a change which will change that background pattern. 

[Frosty.]

With the GEFS 12z mean looking this good, it would not be unreasonable to expect something like  P2 later this month!locked in and becoming colder and colder is what most of us want and deserve

Edited November 15, 2016 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 240

CFS daily run for December 

Uncanny similarities 

[nick sussex]

No point in sugar coating the ECM output, its crxp! Its the weather equivalent of spam after being promised steak and chips. As I mentioned earlier the descent into spamville begins quite early at between T120 and T144hrs. From there too much energy spills east, no WAA into Greenland, it then picks up a chunk of the PV to bring a dessert of Angel Delight rather than Lemon Souffle.

Apologies for all these food analogies, its a coping mechanism when faced with underwhelming output, either that or you get film analogies. Those to come if the ECM operationals keep dishing up this type of crud!

Hopefully the US state forecasts ditch the ECM output, I'll report back after my soufflé!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

The operational ECMWF model has little warm air advection which punished the heights development. Still, good indications for ridging later in the run which indicates that the ECM is still forecasting a blocked Negative NAO phase by day 8 which if the run was a little tidier earlier on would have resulted in a more promising amplification of heights and colder weather at the surface. Operational's have a big tendency to rebel against the ENS which is featured not just in mild but cold outliers to. 

It's coming that's for sure but it's going to be an antagonizing journey. 

this is my point - why worry when its mid November, enjoy the ride. if it was late jan then I could understand the panic. mid lat high ?  yep, that's on the table and has been for a fair while. just another variation on a theme. the depression running across the top looks odd - lets see if that makes the para.

[Abyss]

So with all the background signals and model split which is the most likely outcome overall?

[swfc]

ecm to me looks more than feasable given the stubborn heights to the east.its been knocking on the door regarding joining up to the atlantic high ete.that said not a disaster and given the gfs 12z time scale "f1" nhp epic charts time will tell of ecm joins the fun.

.

.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the ecm eps are trending towards the gefs but the extra 31 runs is muting the means re the upper ridges etc. that means (pardon the pun) that there is a fair spread re positioning but ian told us yesterday evening that the clustering was around two solutions which are both cold. the 46 dayers are both on the same cold page, glosea is consistent. of course you cannot pin down exactly how we will end up being affected by a cold pattern but to worry about developments over the next week seems a bit silly imo. like I said before, It will take dramatic changes to affect the background evolution which brings cold to the mid latitudes and the 12z ecm op isn't going to bring about a change which will change that background pattern. 

Yes I was just wondering though if the ECM 0z ens were as yeaterdays 12z, was reading your debate earlier with knocker, as regarding the background signals yes I agree, I wont be pressing the panic button until some serious strat vortex intensification is likely, and that seems as far off as ever, if the strat vortex stays in similar health for the next month then there is nothing that can help the trop vortex and would stick my neck out and say a cold spell (even for our tiny island) would be very likely at some point during December.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM 240

CFS daily run for December 

Uncanny similarities 

Maybe we are near to a resolution for December - dry, sunny/foggy and cold. The snow comes in Jan

[ITSY]

Medium term facing off between ECM, GEM, CFSv2 on the one hand and GEFS/UKMO on the other. Throw the GloSea longer range and EC monthly forecasts into the mix and this really is anybody's game...(which is of course, in itself, disappointing for the medium term - although plenty more optimism long term still possible irrespective of medium term winners)

Edited November 15, 2016 by ITSY

[london-snow]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Have you just arrived from Mars? lol  If it can wrong it does in the UK in terms of cold. Differences at the start may well end up changing that, the ECM just employed some dodgy builders to finish off the foundations. I'll defer to your confidence for the timebeing, no panic yet but NW helpline operatives are on stand by!

Have to agree with Nick we have been fed up the past few winters with liners such as ' The worm is turning ' ' Odds on ' ect ect which never materialised If their is the chance of a cold spell in a reliableish time frame TAKE IT!

 

Although the right signals are being thrown in FI people forget that just one problem I.E shortwave and or spoiler or where will a ssw land us and anything and everything else can have a mass impact on our weather mild or cold a few weeks down the line. 

On a personal note glad to be back for this years hunt for cold and snow and signs are encouraging going forward but we've all been here before..

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM 240

CFS daily run for December 

Uncanny similarities 

To be fair that ECM run would in my opinion by 384 offer retrogression certainly and potentially a lot earlier than the GFS 12z op, maybe a bit east based but I wouldn't worry about a few hundred miles at this stage.

Edited November 15, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[mountain shadow]

Come on guys, the really good stuff isnt supposed to start until early December anyway.

If the ECM was to verify exactly as shown it would still be cold and frosty and the high pressure is clearly on the move Greenland direction.

[tinybill]

if  the  models  are  right  and  if  you  go  by  f1  the weather  could  get  they tasty  at the  beginning  of  dec

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair that ECM run would in my opinion by 384 offer retrogression certainly and potentially a lot earlier than the GFS 12z op, maybe a bit east based but I wouldn't worry about a few hundred miles at this stage.

I agree. That ecm day 10 chart looks primed for the high over the UK to be sucked northwards with cold air sinking south over Scandinavia which is exactly what we need if we are to see a significant cold spell in December.

[Frosty.]

It's important to stress that these GEFS 12z charts are deep FI but they fit the mold for what the longer range models are indicating and what a start to winter this would be..talk about hit the ground running!

[bobbydog]

Goodbye Mr Vortex.....

[Man With Beard]

23 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Not where we want the HP

Guys not that we should be taking a T216 too literally, but this isn't a bad chart for cold. The drift is continental. Those warm uppers are a temporary phenomenon. The southerly feed is about to get cut off as troughing over Spain and Greece is about to fuse. Without that feed, it's going to get cold quickly, as it is less than 4 weeks from the shortest day. Heights to the west look suspiciously as if it could retrogress. Nothing particularly scary that could flatten the pattern is coming out of Canada. There has been a tendency recently for troughing to our north to drop south and it is certainly possible that the Scandi trough could do that here.

Is it as good as the GFS? No. Is it a lost cause for cold? Absolutely not.

[phil nw.]

It's unusual to see the GFS being more amplified than the ECM but beyond day 4 we can't ignore either really.

Looking through the gef stamps there are signs that the GFS suite go for another pulse of Greenland ridging as the pattern starts to regress around day 10.At this stage we don't know what the ECM outputs would show beyond that point so i wouldn't rule out the possibility that this would turn up on later ECM outputs.

The day 10 GFS mean compared to Day 10 ECM Op.

The general idea of Atlantic heights and some low pressure underneath across Europe is there.It will be interesting to see if future ECM runs start to find the extra Greenland anomalies that recent GFS ens are seeing towards month end.

Edited November 15, 2016 by phil nw.

[Day 10]

We don't call it the Model Roller Coaster for nothing!!! Good job I was strapped in weeks ago!!!

The joys of being a snow lover, living on a tiny little island in a HUGE great ocean.

SILVER LINING - Winter hasn't even started

[knocker]

Impressive

[karlos1983]

Some great output from the gfs in particular this evening, and some equally eye opening purbs to boot! Shame that the ECM didn't want to play ball, so I guess it's best practice to take the output this evening as potentially great,and  let's see what the next couple of runs bring. I'm talking about what the 00z look like, as I'm not expecting the 18z gfs to follow this afternoons output. The one thing I will say is that the past 2-3 gfs runs have been pretty consistent out to around +120, so it could be onto something. Unusual to see UKMO back the gfs over ECM. 

Some great posts in here today, enjoyed reading through about 7 pages since this morning. Great to see the forum buzzing so early. 

From this to this in 15 days! I'll take that thanks.

Nice winter welcome!

[The PIT]

38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No point in sugar coating the ECM output, its crxp! Its the weather equivalent of spam after being promised steak and chips. As I mentioned earlier the descent into spamville begins quite early at between T120 and T144hrs. From there too much energy spills east, no WAA into Greenland, it then picks up a chunk of the PV to bring a dessert of Angel Delight rather than Lemon Souffle.

Apologies for all these food analogies, its a coping mechanism when faced with underwhelming output, either that or you get film analogies. Those to come if the ECM operationals keep dishing up this type of crud!

Hopefully the US state forecasts ditch the ECM output, I'll report back after my soufflé!

Agree rubbish run. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but does side with the GFS better for this weekend. I wouldn't look much beyond this weekend at the moment ignoring the ECM output which is far too north leaving a wet uninteresting weekend. It was noticeable this evenings forecast didn't venture into the weekend indicating major uncertainty.

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Agree rubbish run. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but does side with the GFS better for this weekend. I wouldn't look much beyond this weekend at the moment ignoring the ECM output which is far too north leaving a wet uninteresting weekend. It was noticeable this evenings forecast didn't venture into the weekend indicating major uncertainty.

I'm going to be accused of being a misery soon! A little frustrating that the ECM isn't backing the GFS/UKMO. In relation to that been looking at the US state forecasts and its complicated, whats new!

In terms of the US forecasters fax charts, that's more amplified than the ECM operational run on days 6 and 7. The issue is the following from the Vermont State forecast:

The uncertainty in the forecast grows as the upper trough is expected
to become negatively tilted with a low developing over the region
by late in the weekend and how it interacts with the offshore storm.
The indications are the coastal storm will be drawn westward and will
consolidated into a low over New England which should lift northward
through early in the week. This set up will have cyclonic flow across
the region drawing colder air across the relatively warm water of the
Great Lakes resulting in lake enhanced rain/snow showers.

The models agree with the coastal storm being drawn westward, the negative tilt though is more in relation to the GFS/UKMO. I think we should get agreement in the morning given the timeframes.
 

[SMU]

Over the years the ECM / UKMO has pretty much thumped the GFS in Scandi High Scenarios, however the atlantic ridge in this scenario is equally as plausable from the GFS ( against the background signal ) as the ECM is - which is flatter but likely to be excellent at day 11 -

we could end up with middle ground here which is equally as good in the long run - Generally High pressure to the North in that 'sausage' shape usually retrogrades back towards greenland anyway-

I would say its good news & win win either way...