Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[knocker]

Still looking at strong winds over the weekend but hopefully not too strong. Could well be a few flakes over the Pennines and it's certainly dragging some warm air into Europe.

Edited November 15, 2016 by knocker

[Nick L]

13 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Don't forget we're on the north of the Polar Front Jet. That makes a difference ref. normal rules on upper air temperatures and dew points?

You'll need to explain this one...

[Zakos]

.          Better still on the 12z, Atlantic jet starting to look very weak now.

[feb1991blizzard]

The longest draw Northerly in history!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Must say, there's something quite depressing about a warm front heading in from the EAST at this time of year lol. All that blocking and we end up with +5 to +10 uppers trying to invade from the continent!

[swfc]

not that much change on the 12z imo

the block to the east still doing its thing and stopping any chance of colder 850s moving south threw scan!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Must say, there's something quite depressing about a warm front heading in from the EAST at this time of year lol. All that blocking and we end up with +5 to +10 uppers trying to invade from the continent!

This run looks more primed to regress though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

This run looks more primed to regress though.

Oh I don't know...that low that travelled up through the UK from the south around the day 8/9 ,mark is doing a good job of trying to screw us over...

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh I don't know...that low that travelled up through the UK from the south around the day 8/9 ,mark is doing a good job of trying to screw us over...

It isn't going to succeed!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here is our chance on this run to start to advect some colder uppers our way...

Really is an impressive high that btw...

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes!!!

[booferking]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

It isn't going to succeed!!

Look to the north incoming.

[knocker]

WAA west of Greenland, one arm of jet nipping around northern Greenland equals Arctic plunge

[feb1991blizzard]

-8c about to enter UK with -12c not far behind.

[Paul_1978]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes!!!

Knock 240 hours off that and we're in business!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes!!!

My lord, charts like that should be post watershed. Stunning doesn't even begin to describe that synoptic. 

[West is Best]

16 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

How does the positioning of the PFJ alter the basic physics?

I thought the positioning of the PFJ affects the whole tropospheric atmospheric air mass? So it's not just about 850hPA temps but for example 250hPa's where the PFJ typically sits? Polar jet streams are typically located near the 250 hPa pressure level, or 7 kilometres (4.3 mi) to 12 kilometres (7.5 mi) above sea level, while the weaker subtropical jet streams are much higher, between 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) and 16 kilometres (9.9 mi) above sea level. 

Sounds like I'm talking rubbish? 

 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

An exceptional run, I really hope around 13 of the ensembles back this, then we're really In the money, I feel

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

An exceptional run, I really hope around 13 of the ensembles back this, then we're really In the money, I feel

All we need is an increasing number do just that with each run, to be honest its not the GEFS that worry me, its the ECM eps that we need more at the moment.

[Zakos]

.         Stunning anomalys again from the GFS.     .  .       Lack of cold air initially is irrelevant IMO, when you consider the run ends with air being imported from central Siberia! Models definitely firming up on a very blocked end to November, and possibly a very blocked and cold start to winter.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Zakos

[daz_4]

Good to see another strat warming starting around 25th. Could be a good one.

[tight isobar]

Lovely. ...

The track on gfs 12.. sets the wheels in motion. 

Elongating things and correcting necessary' parts of the jigsaw via HLB..@greenland....

Carrying us forwards for compliance of advecting adequate 850's..in coming....perhaps? ?!!...

All in all fantastic. ...

[Summer Sun]

I've seen worse charts to start December

[Zakos]

.          Does anyone know if this very large block is a result of the Atlantic and Siberian high "merging" together ? 

[bluearmy]

12z op, 06z gefs , 06z gefs bc

the op can hardly be said to be odd at day 16