Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[weirpig]

All conjecture  But the control as the first Low  at t120  tracking more southerly  with snow sleet rain  on its northern edge    maybe even the far south may see a sprinkle of the white stuff?

 

[sorepaw1]

On Friday, November 11, 2016 at 19:16, Frosty. said:

Looking at the current Gfs for Sunday North East England could see a hammering of rain sleet and snow could be quite treacherous on higher ground. 

 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh yes indeed. And the ext EPS this morning has the Azores nudging north in the vicinity of the UK giving some gentle zephyrs from a westerly quadrant and temps a little above average.

It does ??

had two more looks and can't find that though the above av uppers are there courtesy of the warm easterly 

[swfc]

maybe its just me but even given the great blocking projected on the nhp im feeling underwhelmed tbh.the block to the east has lost its decent 850s and we even in fi se to be in a know mans land.all can change quickly as ian has said but we on our small island always seem to be on the milder side of the jet

.hopefully il look a total fool by this evening but id love to see the pv ete blasting south threw scan into europe !!!

[Grimers]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

All conjecture  But the control as the first Low  at t120  tracking more southerly  with snow sleet rain  on its northern edge    maybe even the far south may see a sprinkle of the white stuff?

 

Yes, XC Weather uses the GFS model for it's forecasts, 10 cm is expected to fall over Postbridge on Monday.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It does ??

had two more looks and can't find that though the above av uppers are there courtesy of the warm easterly 

It does? How do you get a warm easterly out of this?

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

maybe its just me but even given the great blocking projected on the nhp im feeling underwhelmed tbh.the block to the east has lost its decent 850s and we even in fi se to be in a know mans land.all can change quickly as ian has said but we on our small island always seem to be on the milder side of the jet

.hopefully il look a total fool by this evening but id love to see the pv ete blasting south threw scan into europe !!!

Agreed, I still think something very good is on it's way in Dec, but was being a little greedy and hoping something colder would quickly manifest itself late next week - still time with FI really being this weekend, but it is looking a little less likely this morning.  

[weirpig]

Having a quick Look Through the ensembles  for the period regarding the low  its a little bit of a mixed bag ( at this range it was always likely to be)  Some have the low undercutting the Uk, Some have it bringing Snow to the Midlands and the North ,  And a few bringing heavy rain.   one Perb even has the South east buried under snow.  

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Having a quick Look Through the ensembles  for the period regarding the low  its a little bit of a mixed bag ( at this range it was always likely to be)  Some have the low undercutting the Uk, Some have it bringing Snow to the Midlands and the North ,  And a few bringing heavy rain.   one Perb even has the South east buried under snow.  

Which LP? - the Sunday LP looks "interesting" for the Midlands to say the least  - the channel LP is not exactly a default system which the models sometimes can struggle with.

[Ravelin]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As has been stated day after day on here - the 'mild' GEM output is just a variation on a theme. However, any continental feed at this time of year will feel cold and if it's slack enough could be very chilly!

noted Ian's comments re the rest of November - never has been any convincing evidence that deep cold will arrive before the final few days and that remains under review re the hang back of Euro heights to our se. 

The eps do remove that hang back by day 15 which is in line with the para ec 46.

it may well be that the week 2 pattern is less clear than those that follow re the broad evolution. 

Oh I know, I was just being deliberately ironic given the normal reaction to an Easterly appearing on the charts.

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Agreed, I still think something very good is on it's way in Dec, but was being a little greedy and hoping something colder would quickly manifest itself late next week - still time with FI really being this weekend, but it is looking a little less likely this morning.  

Rather underwhelming outlook for the moment, but not without it's interest as it's anything but zonal. I'd agree though, I don't think anything beyond this weekend is set in stone. The general pattern being so 'unusual' means we've got to be prone to more flips and surprises than normal.

[Man With Beard]

D12 ECM ensemble 850s - surprised they aren't a bit colder?

[Eskimo]

Perturbation 2 anyone?

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Which LP? - the Sunday LP looks "interesting" for the Midlands to say the least  - the channel LP is not exactly a default system which the models sometimes can struggle with.

Yes should have been clearer  the LP at t120hours  of course pinpointing the exact route it will take is like pinning the tail on the donkey   

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

That quote you posted further up the page sounded good but I never wrote that sorepaw1

Edited November 15, 2016 by Frosty.

[Paul_1978]

I think the models are anything but underwhelming at the minute - it's fantastic seeing it all unfold! Normal this ain't! 

[Grimers]

Looking at the ECMWF model, I can't see any low in the current that would bring a widespread snow events, uppers are too warm even on the northern side of the low.

   

OTOH, the GFS model does show a low on Monday which I think would bring a snow event to C and N parts of the UK and later to higher ground of S UK.

   

As shown, the ECMWF model is more realistic whereas the GFS model is getting quite excited, I love the last 2 charts shown from the GFS model, if the uppers were a little colder, the low would bring the first significant snow event to SW parts of the UK for nearly 6 years.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Grimers

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Grimers said:

Looking at the ECMWF model, I can't see any low in the current that would bring a widespread snow events, uppers are too warm even on the northern side of the low.

OTOH, the GFS model does show a low on Sunday which I think would bring a snow event to C and N parts of the UK and later to higher ground of S UK.

 

Yes - I'm near coastal (at present anyway) - elevation is another story - could be a classic battleground for the Midlands though if there is enough cold dragged in from the E always odd to see the ppn modelled moving from the South.

[sorepaw1]

Sincere apologies Frosty I'm using a smart phone and it's my mistake. 

I'm looking forward to Sundays weather I'm taking the 06z GFS with a pinch of salt after T+144hrs to T+204hrs. I think which ever way the models suggest either cold/cooler/ or mild there's some interesting weather to be had. i think that stubborn high pressure over the Russian regions  will throw a few suprises in the weather for the uk .whether it be as I say cool cold or milder. It could take weeks for that Russian high to dissipate . And until it does the weather for the  UK could go from one extreme to another.

Edited November 15, 2016 by sorepaw1

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

12 hours ago, Jonan92 said:

This ensemble is crazy

 

Is that a west-based NAO?

[bluearmy]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

It does? How do you get a warm easterly out of this?

 

 

you need to ask?  (and you know these shouldn't be posted here)

the 500z flow posted is a five day mean and the uppers day 15. The preceding four days on the upppers are much higher and imo, with a mean upper trough in Europe (I accept weak on the means) to our south and a high anomoly to our north, a continental flow is exactly what I would expect. The dropping off of the uppers from our east as the run progresses reflects that direction of travel. 

[carinthian]

On ‎12‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 08:45, Summer Sun said:

On ‎12‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 08:45, Summer Sun said:

ECM shows a mixed pattern this morning mild till Wednesday then we see some chiller air for a few days before some milder air returns at the end

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECM shows a mixed pattern this morning mild till Wednesday then we see some chiller air for a few days before some milder air returns at the end

 

Just shows how the dvelopments can change so quickly in a few days. No sign at weekend from ECM  charts of the low pressure development  now being shown to affect Southern Britain over Sat nigh night into Sunday. Even at this stage its development of track is not yet determined. However, some experts over here talk about a possible snow storm to affect the Alps later this weekend as a result of the Polar Jet / frontal boundary being further south. If the Baroclinic Boundary is that further south, the low pressure system for the UK this weekend could indeed go further south or miss . All very fascinating to watch developments in the next few days. Stand by for more changes !

 C

 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2016 by carinthian

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

 

I can't offer hard evidence but my experience of so called winter / autumn channel lows are that they always get modeled so the eye heads along the coast giving the midlands a chance of snow but then it continues to be modeled further and further south so by the end even the south coast misses out on any rain or wintery ppn. If the low is modeled further and further south can anyone suggest what would the general synoptic be over mainland  UK. (I guess the ensembles might show this)

[sorepaw1]

Current 06z GFS is showing this chart below. Which could result in the other picture been a scene across the northern parts of the country but not exclusively. 

In heavier ppn snow could fall to lower levels . The showers will be squally hence imo the unpredictably of them.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you need to ask?  (and you know these shouldn't be posted here)

the 500z flow posted is a five day mean and the uppers day 15. The preceding four days on the upppers are much higher and imo, with a mean upper trough in Europe (I accept weak on the means) to our south and a high anomoly to our north, a continental flow is exactly what I would expect. The dropping off of the uppers from our east as the run progresses reflects that direction of travel. 

I disagree. Up until T288 the 850mb wind streams show a closed circulation over the UK and as this slowly subsides then the ridge begins to come into play and a westerly component results. I'm merely saying as it is and not what I would expect. And yes I appreciate those charts shouldn't be posted here but it is sometimes the quickest way to move on when people start nit picking as many are want to do.

[West is Best]

Each successive run is synoptically more attractive than the one before, setting a clear trend and the 06z is a synoptic belter. I particularly like the look of proper height rises over Greenland. What we are not yet seeing are many seriously cold upper 850hPa temps but I think lots of cold lovers would rather get the synoptics right as those will follow. It goes without saying too that being on the north of the polar front jet, as we are throughout the entire 6z run after 21h00 tomorrow, is going to make things feel and act distinctly cold.

Edited November 15, 2016 by West is Best
Improved grammar