Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Popular Post
Posted

Getting away from the hand grenade Fergie has thrown into the forum, amazing consistency yet again with the GFS run out to D9,

18z gfsnh-0-216.png?18  12z gfsnh-0-222.png?12  6Z gfsnh-0-228.png  0Z gfsnh-0-234.png

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Greenland might need to get the barbies out!

gfsnh-1-240.png?18

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

This sort of pattern sure has been a rare occurrence for the past few years! The usual late November Atlantic train absolutely nowhere to be seen. 

IMG_3120.PNG

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Signal of high pressure to the NW of the UK early in Dec, with resulting northerly wind. 

Then 2nd week in Dec, low pressure to the south of the UK (= easterly), plus indications of greater than normal precipitation levels. 

Which could mean, given the direction of airflow, an increased chance of the white stuff. 

Thanks

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 18z shows a proper cold snap later this week, the word cool doesn't compute for the north, especially scotland which has ice days and double digit minus celsius minima by the weekend, over the snow fields!:cold-emoji:

Speaking of snow, there is some shown in various parts of the uk, even the south.:drunk:

18_69_preciptype.png

18_69_uk2mtmp.png

18_96_preciptype.png

18_93_uk2mtmp.png

18_108_preciptype.png

18_108_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_108_mslp500.png

18_117_uk2mtmp.png

18_132_uk2mtmpmin.png

 

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Bizarre chart...truly bizarre. Looks like it's heading for the mother of all west based -NAOs

gfsnh-0-312.png?18

Strat looks to be in a bit of bother at the end of the run too

gfsnh-10-372.png?18

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 18z shows a proper cold snap later this week, the word cool doesn't compute for the north, especially scotland which has ice days and double digit minus minima by the weekend, over the snow fields!:cold-emoji:

The express said -11c this weekend, law of averages say they should be correct with 1 in a 100 headlines!! 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

It's almost as if it's trying to initiate a block which stretches all the way from the east of Canada right across to Scandi. Can't say I've seen the likes of this thrown out before even in deep FI. Really is bizarre stuff

gfsnh-0-348.png?18

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Nasty

 

 

wouldn't say nasty, more a stonker!!!   I would take it slap bang over me no problem.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

18z ends with a developing scandi high. A true pub run.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Oh and if we hadn't had enough good news tonight, if all this goes tits up, the top of the strat is even warming significantly now.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016111418&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

  • Like 17
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh and if we hadn't had enough good news tonight, if all this goes tits up, the top of the strat is even warming significantly now.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016111418&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

Full trop lead blocked pattern with a srat warming as a back-up plan. Truly the odds are in our favour for what seems like years.

Edited by SN0WM4N
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh and if we hadn't had enough good news tonight, if all this goes tits up, the top of the strat is even warming significantly now.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016111418&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

Yep, seems to be really having a number done on it this year; with the potential for further weakening courtesy of a warming.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Looking for ECM storms among GFS ensembles couldn't find much but a few do go for a stormy channel low of sorts.

Shame GFS ppn charts are so poor because they show snow on leading edge too.

gensnh-5-1-132.pnggensnh-13-1-138.pnggensnh-19-1-132.png

 

The most notable thing though is that many have better blocking to our East in the mid term.

To early to know if this could be a new trend but GFS is finding some undercut of the Russian high within its ensembles.

tomorrow is going to be fascinating.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Chionomaniac must be wishing he was here still, hope he is ok, I'm sure he would have seen this coming a long way off and predicted all this bedlam.

 

 

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Example of undercut and Russian high becoming a player.

gensnh-7-1-192.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 18z shows an increasingly mild spell next week with southerly winds pumping north across the southern half of the uk..so, more humble pie for me!:D

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

hgt500-1000.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Much colder and better towards the end of the Gfs 18z with wintry synoptics! 

:cold-emoji:retrogression is a nice word:D

h500slp.png

h850t850eu.png

ukmintemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
6 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

This ensemble is crazy

 

gensnh-14-1-348_prg5.png

Maybe so, but you get the feeling that at some point this winter something just as crazy looking as that might just happen. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

ECM London graph an upgrade as per IF's earlier post. decent cluster go for cool London at end which include a minority but increasing number going for outright cold (N/NE flow I suspect given earlier info)

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

Just had a quick look through the ensembles at T384

There are quite a few that look similar to the above image as well. 

The mean demonstrates this well

 

IMG_0891.PNG

Edited by Decemberof2010
Image
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...