Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Skyraker]

9 hours ago, Timmytour said:

"When I caught Gerald he was wild"

"Wild? I was absolutely livid!"

9 hours ago, Timmytour said:

 

Trough?   Trough?

Pah!

That is not a trough. It is instead an enormous willy!....(for those who remember NTNON)

 

[jvenge]

AO looks to be heading negative in the next 3-5 days and looks set to stay that way well into December. CSFv2, ECMWF, Canadian and GEFS all showing this, but some disagreement on how negative it will go. 

[A.J]

18 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Morning all, first post so go easy

I've been reading this forum for a couple of years now, and find it fascinating. Some of the knowledge on here is astounding. 

Anyhow I decided to join you guys as the excitement builds over this coming winter

What I am seeing is some great building blocks that are now starting to manifest themselves in the models

I've got a feeling we may be seeing some BOOM charts very soon

I am aware how us cold fans have been let down big time over and over again by great looking charts never getting to T0

This year feels different

I have limited knowledge but I certainly look forward to seeing posts in this model thread from Ali1977, Frosty, Steve Murr, Mucka, BFTP, Febblizzard1991 to name some of my favourite posters (cold rampers, like me)

Anyway keep up the great work guys, everything crossed for our upcoming winter

Cheers

Welcome to the model output discussion thread, and it's always nice to see new posters take the plunge!.....

Just a few 'words of wisdom' to hopefully stand you in good stead and to keep your sanity in place.....

Cold ramping is admirable and no doubt most of us are closet or open cold/snow lovers, but try not to get carried away as some do with declarations of 'amazing' 'stunning' 'frigid' charts etc etc...we live in a maritime climate influenced by the gulf stream and associated jet stream so despite every winter the model outputs churn out eyebrow raising charts for cold lovers, the reality is that they rarely verify, leading to the usual quota of negative posts in here when things don't go as planned (the moral of that story is that some folk never learn!)....

That being said, just occasionally, said 'stunning' charts do actually verify which makes the event and lead-up even more special! and although it's early in the season it does look like the signs and blueprints in place are showing a potentially colder and dare I say it, a snowier winter than for some years!..

In closing, it should be said that this thread isn't designed as a 'rampers' thread, but at the same time it's not just a dispassionate, analytical thread, a bit of 'character' is a pre-requisite for this thread, so treat OTT ramp posts with caution, remember though that there is no smoke without fire, and you'll be fine, and most importantly you'll be able to get through the entire winter without being forced into weekly prescriptions of this >>>>>>> 

[mb018538]

I'm hoping these teasers come to some sort of fruition! The eternal pessimist in me always nags to say 'nah, it won't happen.' The nice charts seem to be getting stuck at around day 10 and not getting any closer. I'm worried that the models aren't picking up on a feature of sorts which will scupper the transfer of heights around so that we end up with an azores low and Greenland high. Everything points to this coming off, but until it does, I will remain doubtful!

[Summer Sun]

2nd run in a row from GEM which goes mild

Less cold air is never far away from ECM either especially for the south and SE

[bluearmy]

Briefly, eps not on same page as gefs re mean/anomoly days 12/15

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Welcome aboard Decof2010, the roller coaster is well on its way.  For me though the displaced PV this week then heights rising to our NW has always been the route I have favoured.  Seems to be firming up very nicely indeed!!!  Goong to feel very raw soon.....lovely.....the anticipation is my fav part.

 

BFTP

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Vivian said:

Anyone wondering which way the ECM might go after 240hrs, check out GFS control  - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

As you say, amazingly similar charts at t240 on the 0Zs...

ECM   GFS control

 

Which in the GFS control 0Z leads to this...

Which, especially at that range, is pretty damn similar to the end of last nights GFS 18z...

All in FI or deep, deep FI, but when patterns start repeating...?

[festivalking]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Welcome aboard Decof2010, the roller coaster is well on its way.  For me though the displaced PV this week then heights rising to our NW has always been the route I have favoured.  Seems to be firming up very nicely indeed!!!  Goong to feel very raw soon.....lovely.....the anticipation is my fav part.

 

BFTP

I definitely think for this and many other forums its the thrill of the chase that keeps us all hooked! Especially when charts like this pop up in the far reaches.

 

 

[ITSY]

41 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

As you say, amazingly similar charts at t240 on the 0Zs...

ECM   GFS control

 

Which in the GFS control 0Z leads to this...

Which, especially at that range, is pretty damn similar to the end of last nights GFS 18z...

All in FI or deep, deep FI, but when patterns start repeating...?

 

Indeed. What's also interesting is Matt Taylor's long range forecast, which now says that next week looks to see a build of high pressure and drier weather - which would tally with the idea that the models have been toying with over the last 48hrs, which is to collapse the Atlantic ridge onto the UK before retrogressing towards Greenland. That is only one possibility though at this stage, but it should become clearer over this week...

Edited November 14, 2016 by ITSY

[Iceaxecrampon]

Eyes on the tops in Cumbria from Thursday to Saturday 17th to 19th.

Reload for the Jocks Sunday the 20th

Is this a classic polar low then? 

[Ali1977]

Some good charts this morning, especially within the GEFS ensembles but there is so much variation between the models in FI it's hard to see exactly where we are heading. Even though the signals are currently fantastic with regards potential, until we have something solid in the reliable range it's hard to get too exited.  Keep an eye out for changes in the METO long range and updates from Ian F to get a better idea, and until then enjoy the ride - remembering it isn't even Winter yet.

If the block is going to form around the 10 day range we may start seeing that firmed up today and tomorrow, but the positioning will still be open for change, if we are going to get any substantial cold we need it to be further North than currently signalled and then see what happens.  Personally I think anything any real cold maybe right towards the end of Nov and early Dec as if the block does form it would then take another few days to get the colder uppers etc to our shores, fingers crossed!!!

Edited November 14, 2016 by Ali1977

[weirpig]

Again remarkably similiar on the 6z at 144   now for the business end.

 

[Grimers]

According to the GFS model, it's looking good for cold lovers on Friday!

       

Edited November 14, 2016 by Grimers

[terrier]

Looking like the gfs06z is following on from    Earlier output. Looking decidedly chilly from Thursday onwards with some snow on northern hills. Looks like we may well be entertaining a chilly cold phase past this milder interlude this week. 

[Ali1977]

Can't post picture but at day 9 we have gone from a low pressure in NE Canada to a high pressure - just proves where we are with regards FI!!!  

Although, this FI could be a good one as the PV over Greenland moves East it may give us a long drawn Northerly flow and a big Block to our NW - maybe!!

Edit - not quite but still a decent FI with another option of blocking - also of note is the cold bottling up too our North, this is a good thing for when "if" the block eventually gets in there.  Expect some very good charts in the mid to long range of this run of Ensembles!!

Edited November 14, 2016 by Ali1977

[Grimers]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Can't post picture but at day 9 we have gone from a low pressure in NE Canada to a high pressure - just proves where we are with regards FI!!!  

Although, this FI could be a good one as the PV over Greenland moves East it may give us a long drawn Northerly flow and a big Block to our NW - maybe!!

Agreed, when colder conditions are forecast FI can be earlier than average.

[Ravelin]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Can't post picture but at day 9 we have gone from a low pressure in NE Canada to a high pressure - just proves where we are with regards FI!!! 

Here you go..

0Z   6Z

I'd not say that it's gone to high pressure though, just not as low.

FI still trying for the plunge to our East, but much further East this time ans doesn't really work out.

Still an 'interesting' t384 chart though, even if it doesn't scream cold for us it's close by.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Ravelin

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Agreed, when colder conditions are forecast FI can be earlier than average.

Another variation of where the HP ends up

[weirpig]

maybe not cold for our little isle yet.  But look at scandi again they are having a very cold start to the season.

Edited November 14, 2016 by weirpig

[Grimers]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

maybe not cold for our little isle yet.  But look at scandi again they are having a very cold start to the season.

Yes! The amount of blocking that's already in place is a good sign for us!

Edited November 14, 2016 by Grimers

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

maybe not cold for our little isle yet.  But look at scandi again they are having a very cold start to the season.

For some reason its not letting me post charts on here but if you look at the state of the PV for the same time as the chart you posted, it wouldn't be too difficult to tap into some of the much colder air over Scandi. Shades of 2010 I feel but we have a long way to go yet! 

[Grimers]

5 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

For some reason its not letting me post charts on here

Try posting charts from http://www.meteociel.fr.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Grimers

[Summer Sun]

looking at the 00z ens temperatures recover during the final full week of November before cooling down again right at the end of the month

Weather Online's thought's for the next week

 

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

looking at the 00z ens temperatures recover during the final full week of November before cooling down again right at the end of the month

Weather Online's thought's for the next week

 

Im a bit confused bt that   is the last figure the daytime temps   and the first night time?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2016 by weirpig