Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Allseasons-Si]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Bias corrected gefs for the end of the run

Love that mean chart there BA,gfs and it's ens have been sniffing of this hp block idea since yesterdays 12z runs and getting stronger but also some blocking in the Atlantic,which scenario will come to fruition who knows,but loving all the meridial flows around the nh

love that ecm 240hr chart,pv looks a bit p****d off to say the least,any resemblance lol

let's just hope that the synoptic's transform into something special later down the line

looking at the ens temps,there does seem to be a cool down from the 20th and a +20 cm snow spike on one of them

let's get those steel wheels rolling from the east,choo!,choo!

one last thing(i posted in the strat thread),there is a uptick on the 10hpa but nothing too substantial,i will check with this tomorrow to see if it gains momentum.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Ravelin]

Well pretty much identical run on the GFS 18Z so far, out to 180h

12Z    18z 

Slightly better heights towards Greenland, low over the UK is slightly further south, and the Siberian high is slightly stronger. Looks like the pub run is laying off the hard stuff so far tonight.

[lorenzo]

Heat Flux plot to support that temp plot, much like the reposted tweet from Cohen earlier. Vortex getting another examination... all told within the excellent summaries today truly exciting stuff and particularly the timing which could evolve into something 'perfect'. ECM tonight rather than a bellweather I think will cement a general route forward given some unusual consensus, including flips to consensus among the seasonal suites.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Substantial height's into the pole @ 180hrs compared to the 12z 186hrs,could there be a cross polar flow?

18z12z

 

[Frosty.]

Polar maritime incursion incoming a week from now on the Gfs 18z with cold air spreading across northern uk with showers turning to snow across upland scotland with the colder air gradually spilling south.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ravelin]

As predicted, the dartboard low of the 12Z has gone at t198, which will affect the outcome of the rest of the run

12z    18z

 

Edit: Nope, it's determined to bring it back

Edited November 10, 2016 by Ravelin

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

As predicted, the dartboard low of the 12Z has gone at t198, which will affect the outcome of the rest of the run

12z    18z

Yup,every system hitting that scandi/russian brick wall,just need it a bit further west and disrupt,what more can we ask of lol

fascinating model output all round

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There is no doubt in my mind that runs that show displaced PV near us and HP building after to our NW last week of Nov will be more on the money.  I also believe the sun was blank yesterday and it is today.  And we continue downwards.  

 

BFTP

Edited November 10, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

It looks like the Gfs 18z is setting up cold reloads from the NW..nice

[Cheshire Freeze]

Beginning of the end of this more mobile spell at day 10...vortex should smash itself to pieces henceforth given the N hemispheric pattern

 

Be interesting to see what it throws out latter FI

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

There is no doubt in my mind that runs that show displaced PV near us and HP building after to our NW last week of Nov will be more on the money.  I also believe the sun was blank yesterday.  And we continue downwards.  

 

BFTP

Yes, we will have a decent winter this year but probably too early for the really special winter, that will happen around the turn of the decade IMO, at some point within the next 5 years there will be one to send a shudder down the spine of the global warming protagonists.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It looks like the Gfs 18z is setting up cold reloads from the NW..nice

Karl, for me something we shall see a fair bit this winter.  LPs on NW/SE axis

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

FI I know but there is an increasing trend to develop heights over scandi in GFS runs lately, problem is my fear that there will be no frigid uppers to 'come round the back door' like in 87 and it will be another wasted opportunity.

Edited November 10, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Karl, for me something we shall see a fair bit this winter.  LPs on NW/SE axis

 

BFTP

I agree Fred, and the Gfs 18z is certainly blowing up the lows in low res but I think the models are now firming up on a polar maritime incursion later next week with more to follow.

[Frosty.]

Interesting end to the 18z with trough disruption over the uk and the siberian / scandi high flexing its muscles!

Edited November 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ravelin]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

FI I know but there is an increasing trend to develop heights over scandi in GFS runs lately, problem is my fear that there will be no frigid uppers to 'come round the back door' like in 87 and it will be another wasted opportunity.

Too early in the season really, there just isn't a huge pool of cold air hanging around ready to be dropped in the right place. I think the best we can hope for at the moment is something similar to what we've just had, at least for another 3-4 weeks anyway.

[Catacol]

5 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

..another GFS op showing a highly distressed upper vortex. The detail will change, but the broad gist isn't dissimilar to 18z, 00z and 06z...(you need to view as contour heights not temperature)

This stemming from troposheric pattern early November. There is more to come c/o wave 2 likely to hit end of November into December.

So - Pacific wave pushes GWO through 7 - 8 - 1, with consequent low pressure development running hard into the Eurasian Block through November. End result a wave 2 attack as the aleutian low remains largely in place due to ENSO disconnect between atmosphere and ocean. Already distressed vortex pinched between Canada and Eurasia encouraging tropospheric ridges over Russia and Greenland. Trough drops over W Europe with air source from the N and NE. Cold in December following a mobile interlude in mid November.

GWO heads back towards 4/5 and a consequent uptick in AAM encourages more ridging. At the same time lag effect of the wave 2 attack hits the troposphere, potentially dramatic if a SSW occurs. Atlantic jet sinks south under increasingly robust northern blocking. Retrogression from Siberia possible? Cold easterlies and undercuts in January?

Haha. If only weather was so predictable... and if only I knew more than I do about the teleconnections that drive global patterns. However the prognosis above has a logic to it I think. Anyone spot the 30% Met Office contingency forecast probability of a week or so ago pointing to a very cold setup through December/January? I wonder if that probability is now on the increase.

 

CFS comedy model perhaps not too far away in terms of the pattern with this attempt for 1st Dec:

 

 

and by Xmas day this attempt. Notice the storm track way south with blocking over the top

 

Never trust CFS.... but it might just be smelling the pattern. Same general theme incidentally from each of the CFS runs today. 18z NH image perhaps particularly suggestive of the forecast attempt above

 

 

I'd get bets on a white Xmas in fast. Odds are already rather short. They must have been talking to someone somewhere.......!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ravelin said:

Too early in the season really, there just isn't a huge pool of cold air hanging around ready to be dropped in the right place. I think the best we can hope for at the moment is something similar to what we've just had, at least for another 3-4 weeks anyway.

i would say we could get better with a greeny high as it will be further down the line, that's why i would prefer that to my usual mid winter favourite of an easterly, that's why I'm a bit disappointed at todays output, still though until GP and Fergie rules out a Northerly late Nov / Early Dec i wont write it off.

[Singularity]

No huge pool of cold air? Try looking at most of Asia

Its a bit far away but if a Scandi High was to emerge then at least some of that cold pool - with uppers some 20*C below the LTA for mid November - would begin to tease us.

This is why any suggestion of height rises to the NE are of great interest in the near future. It would certainly make for a different (to the current model consensus) run-up to the potential height rises W and NW of the UK by early Dec that GP discussed earlier.

[Ravelin]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

No huge pool of cold air? Try looking at most of Asia

Its a bit far away but if a Scandi High was to emerge then at least some of that cold pool - with uppers some 20*C below the LTA for mid November - would begin to tease us.

This is why any suggestion of height rises to the NE are of great interest in the near future. It would certainly make for a different (to the current model consensus) run-up to the potential height rises W and NW of the UK by early Dec that GP discussed earlier.

Yeah, I was just thinking myself I should have said "no large pool of cold air nearby", especially with reference to the last few GFS runs.  It'd be a hell of a trek for that persistent pool over in Asia to be dragged our way, across the full length of Russia and Scandinavia. I'd love to see that marching across the North Sea though, especially from an IMOBY point of view.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Ravelin

[Ali1977]

Postage stamps at 192 , not bad for mid Nov with plenty showing a split PV 

[Nouska]

28 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Never trust CFS.... but it might just be smelling the pattern. Same general theme incidentally from each of the CFS runs today. 18z NH image perhaps particularly suggestive of the forecast attempt above

 

Now there's a chart right out of my '76 analogue.

..... and a very blank canvas for week 48 from latest EC 32.

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by Nouska

[Ali1977]

Wow, and a fair few in the similar ball park.

Like these.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Ali1977

[ITSY]

Yeah some crazy ensembles appearing. Still awaiting monthly news though! Fingers crossed. Lots of decent Synoptics starting to churn out in the far reaches of FI...(yes, this was a ramp from me). Should be said that nothing guarantees cold for us even with blocks - has to be angled right! 

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Now there's a chart right out of my '76 analogue.

..... and a very blank canvas for week 48 from latest EC 32.

 

We don't want a Vortex that rampant though (76 analogue), although part of me thinks we need to start pooling some cold near by somehow or we will be firing blanks.