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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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No fireworks at T192hrs but okay from the ECM. And given the GFS we should be thankful that it wasn't supported by the Euros, in a sense that chunk of the PV heading south doesn't do us any favours.

Its a timing issue really, we need to delay that PV chunk by 24hrs to allow a better chance of the high getting a bit further north and that cold air westwards.

There is though a huge difference upstream between the UKMO and ECM/GFS. It looks like the UKMO phases two shortwaves one in the southern jet and the other coming in from the Pacific which forms a deepish low. The ECM/GFS don't do this.

Although that Pacific ridge pushing south is something that's good for the longer term we're left in a weird scenario because do you want jam now or in a few weeks.

 

Edited by nick sussex

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One word describes the Ecm 12z..anticyclonic:D indeed the high intensifies next week so it becomes very anticyclonic!

72_mslp500.png

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5 minutes ago, snowice said:

GFS over doing the sw Tosh?

Ecm over doing the Easterly! 

The wait goes on!

 

It could go either way, snowice, but I'd plump for the ECM, this time...But, hey, what about the 'third way' - that in ten-days' time, we'll all still be asking ourselves the same question?:cold:

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Time for the Atlantic to admit defeat and give up for this year is different than your normal year, let the easterly commence you troll.:snowman-emoji:

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I think fergieweather has given a little clue on his comments.  I assume the cold will last a bit longer than first thought.  maybe only a few days of mild mush.  Ian never comes online this time of the day unless he wants us to know something 

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14 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

I think you might falling into my trap? It will already be nicely cold at the surface I think.

Nooooo it should be quite cold under that HP, I just want even colder :D

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And the Ecm 12z ends....drum roll..very anticyclonic:D

240_mslp500.png

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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM pushing the block north which may link with heights over pole - no breakdown in the high over us here. I wonder if we can go from a cold dry high,  to a colder snowier setup without really getting slightly milder at all. 

IMG_3659.PNG

Get used to scraping the cars anyway - they didn't get much use last year at all, in fact I've used it more this year before winter than the whole of last winter!!

I'd still be careful in assuming this high pressure spell is going to be full of sunny days and frosty nights, the high is forecast to become a cloudy one from now until the end of the week, the big question is, how much cloud will remain under that high over the weekend, one would think with winds becoming very slack and then veering more from the continent we may see the cloud melting away but we could of course end up with anticyclonic gloom. I'll take most BBC/UKMO predictions on cloud cover with a word of caution because there forecasts regarding cloud cover last weekend were a little off the mark to say the least although in fairness forecasting cloud cover in high pressure situations is never easy.

Happy with the ECM though, high had a better orientation than the 00Z run and there was hints it wanted to send more in the way of lower heights towards Iberia, not too fussed its not showing the cold snowy charts in FI as it be a little irrlevant if it did but hopefully we will see a trend of getting some low heights over Iberia and we go from there basically.

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UKMO at 144, could the Easterlies in the South produce some wintry showers I wonder - with no 850 maps it's hard to tell but it maybe long drawn enough to tap into some colder uppers from Eastern Europe. Aware it may well be wrong!!

Edited by Ali1977

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 144, could the Easterlies in the South produce some wintry showers I wonder - with no 850 maps it's hard to tell but it maybe long drawn enough to tap into some colder uppers from Eastern Europe. Aware it may well be wrong!!

Would like to see the 168 chart

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The GEFS 12z mean is also dominated by high pressure, especially further south..right through the next two weeks +:)

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Edited by Frosty.

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 144, could the Easterlies in the South produce some wintry showers I wonder - with no 850 maps it's hard to tell but it maybe long drawn enough to tap into some colder uppers from Eastern Europe. Aware it may well be wrong!!

The really cold air is towards the Germany Poland border, that would take another few days to get to the UK. Given the set up on the UKMO T144hrs you'd need the high to pull further nw allowing those colder uppers along the southern flank of the high.

You can track where the cold air is by the Scandi shortwave, the further west that gets the closer the cold air will be, you really need that tracking sw towards the Low Countries, at the moment it seems to be more s/se.

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Great post by Steve - looking forward to the Ramps and Booms later in the month with any luck!! 

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Looking more broadly, and less so at the fine detail of a hundred miles here or there which will largely determine what setup the UK finds itself in in a week's time, this is one impressive looking Arctic High showing on the ECM at +216,

ECH1-216.GIF

 

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it's about time the ukmo verified @ day 6!:D

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its going to be a clear sinker on the ECM if you look at 240, the UKMO and ECM may take more time but it'll be the same result.

i agree been watching from behind the sofa its beautiful fresh week or two on the way.

but its clearly showing that high pressure will establish over southern england or bit further south but cant see no sign of northern blocking.

but it is only november but even into december the vortex is being battered but lets see how powerful the vortex is by mid dec.

 

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A recent post has been removed- off topic and not in good taste-i may add.

In this upbeat period a little humour around model discussion may be deemed ok in the right context but please all let's try and keep it sensible and informative -and in good taste.

If possible please keep general banter to the other threads.

Thanks all.:)

 

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Meanwhile, the GEM 12z shows swly zephyrs setting in by T+240..more runs needed!:D

GEMOPEU12_240_2.png

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Great post by Steve - looking forward to the Ramps and Booms later in the month with any luck!! 

Just tomorrow then :D

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