Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

UW144-21.GIF?29-17

Now that shows a lot of promise in the mid-term, we really need the ECM to get close to this but a surface easterly with increasingly cold air moving westwards and a likely undercut of the UK upstream beckons.

GFS for the same time

gfs-0-144.png?12

Probably more like recent outputs with heights strengthening over Europe, still quite chilly and in terms of temperatures the 12z looks colder with winds remaining south or south easterly hence keeping a chilly continental component to the wind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the GFS delays the 'inevitable' by keeping the Atlantic at bay for a little longer. 

06z                                                               12z

gfs-0-192.png?6gfs-0-186.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cracking UKMET 144 would pull in some cold raw surface winds, the GFS has too much energy over the top. What will ECM do later?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Bank .:cold-emoji::cold-emoji:

 

bank.gif

Not a particularly cold chart but very positive going forward, say +72 from that chart.

Those are the evolution's I'm looking for, we'll see if one can happen while we have this high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS and UKMO are fairly similar in many ways but the main difference seems to be the UKMO is having the slider low that bit deeper therefore gives more room for error and helps to keep the high over the UK. GFS looks more like this morning's ECM where the slider low is not as deep and eventually fills(looks like a little bit of energy from that low heads towards SW England which would give cloudy, damp conditions) and the high eventually sinks.

Amazing one little feature could well make a the difference to the output going into the medium term but the GFS insistence of eventually having a mild SW'ly is a concern however if its wrong in the first part of the output then more than likely the SW'lies won't happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEM/UKMO/GFS T96h comparisons.

gemnh-0-96.png?12UN96-21.GIFgfsnh-0-96.png

 

Fair to say the models do not have this pinned, that is quite a high degree of variance for 96h out all down to how the shortwave energy is modeled to interact with the block - that will have big knock on effects to how upstream developments affect the pattern as the orientation and strength of the high would be quite different by 144.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Todays outputs all point to the same trend in terms of some increase in amplification upstream and more digging south of troughing in the Atlantic but early differences mean the weather for the UK could be either a spell of milder sw'erlies or staying cold.

We're left chasing shortwaves again and in this instance we see the big impact these have on the forward evolution. Looking at the UKMO and the expected upstream pattern after T168hrs its hard to see that becoming milder because the trough energy is splitting to the west of the UK. I've done my best guess looking at the Atlantic UKMO set up at T168hrs. This is the overall European picture at T168hrs:

UN144-21.gif

Looking at the ECM trend and if we project that onto the UKMO, the high is likely to be pulled further to the nw and shortwave energy is likely to head se from the main troughing to the west. I can't see the UKMO sinking the high and at this point those early differences between T96 and T144hrs look like being pivotal in terms of the medium term.

In a nutshell phasing of shortwave energy given the sensitive set up will send us more likely into the sinking high scenario and a spell of milder conditions and then we wait to see whether we get the PV split and and more amplification.

If the UKMO is correct the high will remain and retrogress further to the nw, our quickest route to more interesting conditions is through the UKMO. The ECM is just about passable going forward. The GFS 00hrs and 06hrs are not good and we want nothing to do with them!

 

Defo move towards the ecm and ukmo from the gfs!!more improvements coming i feel later on!!more of an undercut and the high putting up more of a fight!!ukmo is a beauty!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

GFS and UKMO are fairly similar in many ways but the main difference seems to be the UKMO is having the slider low that bit deeper therefore gives more room for error and helps to keep the high over the UK. GFS looks more like this morning's ECM where the slider low is not as deep and eventually fills(looks like a little bit of energy from that low heads towards SW England which would give cloudy, damp conditions) and the high eventually sinks.

Amazing one little feature could well make a the difference to the output going into the medium term but the GFS insistence of eventually having a mild SW'ly is a concern however if its wrong in the first part of the output then more than likely the SW'lies won't happen.

Talking about UKMO having a deeper sliding low, aren't we used to the GFS overdoing how deep low's are? In that case we may see further corrections from GFS?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On a general note i have noticed over the last few days with this conundrum of a split Atlantic jet GFS has readjusted to putting less into the northern arm compared to the same run on the previous day.

This makes for a more progressive pattern further on compared to current ECM outputs.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not so sure about that Phil. I've come over quite faint :shok:

gfs_uv250_natl_39.pnggfs_t850a_natl_39.png

EDIT

Seemingly caused by renewed amplification of the Azores HP tightening the SW-NE thermal gradient.

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

GFS and UKMO are fairly similar in many ways but the main difference seems to be the UKMO is having the slider low that bit deeper therefore gives more room for error and helps to keep the high over the UK. GFS looks more like this morning's ECM where the slider low is not as deep and eventually fills(looks like a little bit of energy from that low heads towards SW England which would give cloudy, damp conditions) and the high eventually sinks.

Amazing one little feature could well make a the difference to the output going into the medium term but the GFS insistence of eventually having a mild SW'ly is a concern however if its wrong in the first part of the output then more than likely the SW'lies won't happen.

Yup, like I said before - the T144 time-frame is particularly messy and complex and will take a while to be resolved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SInker again - deffo think we can assume its going to go that way now and we need the Atlantic to re-amplify soon after.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going to be a lovely hemispheric pattern very late on in the run though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

SInker again - deffo think we can assume its going to go that way now and we need the Atlantic to re-amplify soon after.

Whats a sinker? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Going to be a lovely hemispheric pattern very late on in the run though.

Very nice, vortex almost split with no sign of the coherent circle of doom! Looks like two hemispheres of a brain.

 

gfsnh-0-336.png

 

Edited by Seasonality

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, frosty ground said:

Whats a sinker? 

High Pressure moving south, usually brings south-westerlies back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

SInker again - deffo think we can assume its going to go that way now

Is that on the UKMO too? I haven't seen later charts posted ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, frosty ground said:

Whats a sinker? 

When a high pressure over us slowly sinks into the Euro / Bartlett position, I call it the death rattle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Devonshire said:

Is that on the UKMO too? I haven't seen later charts posted ...

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...