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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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2 minutes ago, David Morse said:

Perhaps the ECM and GFS runs are not giving enough to talk about; but its a clear extension of the blocking regime and it is ONLY the end of November?

I will happily settle for MLB until the HLB arrives:D

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3 minutes ago, David Morse said:

Perhaps the ECM and GFS runs are not giving enough to talk about; but its a clear extension of the blocking regime and it is ONLY the end of November?

Most important is 144h or 168h offer potential with slight modifications, looking further into the future is useless, 10 forecasts never come true. In fact it's better the fi is rather dull, that offers more perspective than a perfect outlook which won't happen 

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My main worry looking at the ECM, is just how we're going to lower heights over S & C Europe? They appear to be quite entrenched to heights over N Africa. Not something which is pleasing on the eye going forward.

If you look to that low near Iberia that's an issue, in the GFS that gets shunted east between T132 and T168hrs and doesn't get pulled north as in the ECM. That parcel of low heights runs east into the Med and you can see it cuts off the connection between Europe and Africa.

The ECM draws this north this which keeps the limpet high attached to Africa.

 

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In terms of the background signals, teleconnections etc what is it that is making this high pressure so persistent? Also following on from that are those background signals showing any indication that it might b***** off anytime soon? Just wondering what to look out for in the models that may presage that change?

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24 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Wondering if we can get one of the driest December's on record if the high stays where it is! 

I certainly wouldn't bet against it

prec4.png

A poor outlook for the ski resorts in Scotland

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great chart Tamara, I will happily sit under high pressure for another two / three weeks if this follows!:crazy::cold-emoji:

archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.png

Except, odds wise you've probably got equal chance of hitting, say, 5 numbers in the lotto to that evolution occurring. That was a unique winter.

Edited by CreweCold

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Apologies for being slightly off topic here, but it's incredible how cold it is outside when you consider there are no prevailing Nlys, Elys etc; perfect for freezing rain were the conditions right. As long as we have that festive high hovering around our latitudes, the chances for something to skirt round it down the line remains. No snow, but some very cold temps to come! 

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Except, odds wise you've probably got equal chance of hitting, say, 5 numbers in the lotto to that evolution occurring. That was a unique winter.

I would settle for something half as good as this, it would still blow the last feeble excuse for  winter out of the water.:D

archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.png

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10 minutes ago, Tamara said:

archivesnh-1962-12-4-0-0.pngECH1-120.GIF?28-0archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.png 

After mid December   ????:wink:

 

So 'The worm is turning'? I'd quite happily take a week or two under HP before that goes north and allows us to get into the game where I feel we will end up.

 

Those dispondant and disappointed just think a cold HP for a week or two followed by look e/ne where anything white is possible (showers and all)

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19 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well i was sitting in a radar with no heating tracking a radiosonde and freezing my cobblers off at that time and as far as I''m concerned you can keep it.

I'm sorry to hear that Malcolm but don't you think coldies and snowlovers deserve something to look forward to after last winter?

Anyway, with high pressure either over or very close to the uk there should be predominantly fine weather with sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and some frosty nights with freezing fog where skies clear..very seasonal.:)

Edited by Frosty.

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I think the only notable weather over the next 10+ days will be who gets clear skies and frosts and those who don't. A fairly nondescript period of weather coming up with all eyes on mid December onwards for anything of note weather wise to comment on, still it beats last years dire weather for sure.

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Well at last some type of agreement. Unfortunately we lose the cold uppers in deep FI but basically it looks like what we have now we will keep for a while. Quiet uneventful stuff. Hopefully this is the end of the large swapping and changing we have been seeing . We always get some in deep FI thats expected but it has been quiet drastic at times around t144 with every model zooming off doing it's own business. Just been looking at the model scores  at t144 1st place ecm 2nd ukmo 3rd GFS

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23 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Jam Tamara

Now that's not very nice; I feel she should be aloud to carry on posting. For a while anyway.:closedeyes:

Edited by knocker

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On 28/11/2016 at 21:08, knocker said:

Now that's not very nice; I feel she should be aloud to carry on posting. For a while anyway.:closedeyes:

Jam Tamara not Ban Tamara

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