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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Finding this a little frustrating. I can't see us ever getting a vortex as weak as this one and yet we still can't nail a good cold set up. Hopefully we will see some mid-term upgrades, but I agree with Nick - either the high do something or I will be looking for a bit of a reset to the pattern. 

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Can the UK receive below average temps by having a high sat over us for December or part of it or would we need a Northerly / Easterly wind to ensure Dec was colder than average? 

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Finding this a little frustrating. I can't see us ever getting a vortex as weak as this one and yet we still can't nail a good cold set up. Hopefully we will see some mid-term upgrades, but I agree with Nick - either the high do something or I will be looking for a bit of a reset to the pattern. 

Patience fella.... It's the end of November...

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Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Finding this a little frustrating. I can't see us ever getting a vortex as weak as this one and yet we still can't nail a good cold set up. Hopefully we will see some mid-term upgrades, but I agree with Nick - either the high do something or I will be looking for a bit of a reset to the pattern. 

The high just doesn't do anything...just sits there, even whilst the trop PV falls apart around it. At this rate I'd rather power up the jet and have it flatten the high away. Would get more pleasure out of lee NW'lys and transient topplers than having to watch HP sit over the UK for 2 weeks solid.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The high just doesn't do anything...just sits there, even whilst the trop PV falls apart around it. At this rate I'd rather power up the jet and have it flatten the high away. Would get more pleasure out of lee NW'lys and transient topplers than having to watch HP sit over the UK for 2 weeks solid.

really?  some harsh frosts are far more preferable to a transient toppler

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whats the bets it will become a euro slug over time it would just be our luck we need to see this HP either getting further north or moving to scandi or it will be like pulling teeth

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This ECM  is like that Star Trek Voyager episode called the Void! Absolutely nothing happens for 240hrs and we're left stuck in the void whilst the high just sits there.

The limpet high is bad news for the ski resorts, it would be fine if we saw low pressure over northern Italy  and that would also be much better for the UK as that would draw the colder air westwards.

There will be quite a lot of frost and fog with the ECM even as the upper air temps rise but overall the run is like watching paint dry, I'd rather sit through One Man And His Dog which would be like an Action film compared to this 240hrs of the ECM.

 

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That's not a brick in the washing machine, it's a bloody great boulder!

Ha. Anyway, the ridge on the other side is much closer to pro expectations than GFS' sudden selection of a massive East Asia blocking feature. 

In fact ECM has that area under low heights so a pretty massive divergence of the two models there. 

ECM day 10 is still about a week from the start of the 'landing window' for blocking to become focused NW and N of the UK based on long range model guidance so we've got a ways to go yet. I'll happily take a quiet settled route with frosts to lower the ground temps.

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Just now, bluearmy said:

really?  some harsh frosts are far more preferable to a transient toppler

Can get some decent snowfall from a NWly here. 

Agreed, frost is preferred to relentless rain but I would like some snow TBH (as would most I'm guessing). Also, as an aside, with the HP moving slightly throughout the runs frost won't always be guaranteed...I can see trapped cloud being an issue at times. 4-5C by day and 1-2C by night hardly fills me with joy.

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8 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Stay positive folks great update from Ian tonight re cold weather ahead.

 

 

image.jpeg

Do love Ian, never shy to put it out there( if the computers agree). Proud to have him as our local forecaster. Never ramps mind you, always sensible, measured and truthful.....but deep down we know he's a coldie.

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Just now, Spah1 said:

Can the UK receive below average temps by having a high sat over us for December or part of it or would we need a Northerly / Easterly wind to ensure Dec was colder than average? 

Yes the UK can even have well below average temps with a high over us but it needs to be situated in the right place, I had -8c overnight lows from this setup.

archivesnh-1991-12-5-12-0.png

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I think people need to be happy where we are in say 4/5 days with a high building in , beyond that we know models aren't great and anything can happen. We are in a great place so far as far as potential goes. I mean it may be -8c down here over the next 2 nights, that is mighty cold for Nov - with ground temps really cooling off ready for some snowfall at some point hopefully !!

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4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Can the UK receive below average temps by having a high sat over us for December or part of it or would we need a Northerly / Easterly wind to ensure Dec was colder than average? 

I think it certainly is possible to get a below average December if a blocking high was situated over the UK. Night minimum temps can be very low (imby we are forecast -5c in rural areas tonight) and temps in the day likely to he low-mid single figures....depending on cloud cover and positioning of the High.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes the UK can even have well below average temps with a high over us but it needs to be situated in the right place, I had -8c overnight lows from this setup.

archivesnh-1991-12-5-12-0.png

So even though Dec is supposedly going to record temps below average that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to snow. It could be colder than average and bone dry. Thanks for the reply. 

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19 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Can the UK receive below average temps by having a high sat over us for December or part of it or would we need a Northerly / Easterly wind to ensure Dec was colder than average? 

 
 
 
 

Think frosts, ice days, light snow flurries at other times, and it's undoubtedly a resounding yes. The air flow (sometimes a SEr'ly, at other times a NWr'ly or anywhere in between) will fluctuate significantly, though, as will cloud cover day by day, so never a gimme generally speaking.

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I think we need to cheer on the GFS although its hardly great at European blocking, that at least tries to disrupt some energy under the high.

If you want some good news NCEP haven't thought much of the last few ECM op runs for the USA. Hopefully that means its coma inducing run for us in Europe is less likely to verify.

Generally its better at modelling Euro blocks than the GFS but lets hope this time its wrong.

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Hmmm I didn't see the Euro high as a potential spolier a week ago! Certainly seem to be a fairly strong signal for it to be a bit of pooper going through early December. In recent years the Euro High certainly has overtaken the much maligned yet illusive Bartlett High in that respect.

I could understand it sat there, as it did, for weeks on end last year. With the ENSO state as it was, it was virtually a given. However, I simply can't see it being too much of a burden for this year, not with the background signals as they are. Give it a week or so of seemingly benign meandering, then wait for the mid month charts... I still believe we are going to see some crazy impressive looking charts hitting our screens soon as once more as retrogression is all abound.

Now, whether or not it comes to fruition though, that's a whole different ball game.

 

And in the meantime, at least it will feel nice and seasonal! :-)

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Amazing run for those in the NW who got flooded out last December, barely a trace of rain or none at all..The Ecm 12z leaves the uk high and dry!:D..and chilly with night frosts and fog where skies clear.

24_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think we need to cheer on the GFS although its hardly great at European blocking, that at least tries to disrupt some energy under the high.

If you want some good news NCEP haven't thought much of the last few ECM op runs for the USA. Hopefully that means its coma inducing run for us in Europe is less likely to verify.

Generally its better at modelling Euro blocks than the GFS but lets hope this time its wrong.

My main worry looking at the ECM, is just how we're going to lower heights over S & C Europe? They appear to be quite entrenched to heights over N Africa. Not something which is pleasing on the eye going forward.

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6 minutes ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

Ecm basimemorablesaying you all moaned about wind and rain from the west last december so are put a block there for half a month till you start moaning you want westerlys again :-)

Id still rather this block i can wait as its only the start of our winter 

I have a feeling it could be the start of a memoraBle

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