Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[bluearmy]

the end of the gefs shows the beginning of a retrogressing anomaly. timing sort of fits. ec 46 due tonight

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I assume the poster refers to the op which is clearly unreliable in week 2

I appreciate that saying GFS probably meant just the det. run, although it could well be interpreted differently. But having said that when making such a definitive statement regarding an important pattern change, a referral to the ens would have been wise. Clearly it looks like another jump on knocker evening.

Edited November 28, 2016 by knocker

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the end of the gefs shows the beginning of a retrogressing anomaly. timing sort of fits. ec 46 due tonight

Yep, just checked and you're correct. Only really last couple of frames though and far too far out to take seriously. 

Interesting nonetheless and something to keep tabs on.

[Snowman.]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the end of the gefs shows the beginning of a retrogressing anomaly. timing sort of fits. ec 46 due tonight

 

 

Now we need to see if it lasts. 

[Singularity]

Amusing how we managed a long fetch easterly on the 12z yet the ridge was so narrow latitudinally that the cold pool was largely swept away before it could arrive. So we received more chilly low level air like we've had today.

So much had to be just-so for it to pan out that way. Will be interesting to see if any ens have the undercut plus a fatter ridge that shields the cold pool from the effects of low pressure moving into north-western Asia.

[chris55]

So a nice clean High pressure for the next few nights/days for the majority of England and Wales with some hard frosts and clear sunny days. We then introduce some slightly moister air into the high as we gain a more westerly influence over the top, resulting in a little more cloud generally.

But as we move through the weekend we look to introduce a much cooler and drier air mass which should result in the return of colder nights and less cloud for all. 

Moving beyond the weekend there are certainly plenty of colder/more seasonal options on the table, and overall we are in a pretty good situation with the synoptic pattern as we enter official winter.

Gone is the entrenched PV and subsequent persistent and endless zonal flow of the last few years, replaced by a more favourable quieter and more blocked pattern. No firm results showing in the models at the moment regarding snowfall, but overall a good starting point for a colder December.

[bluearmy]

the 12z ecm at day four now shows the least favourable tilt to the trough out of the major models re getting a wedge into Greenland

EDIT: but a colder surface flow day 5 into England

day six - how much energy can go into Iberia ?????

Edited November 28, 2016 by bluearmy

[Snowman.]

Interesting 144. That scandi trough could prove to be useful if it heads S/SW.

 

Edited November 28, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[nick sussex]

The trigger shortwave on the ECM is way over in Scandi at T144hrs but if the upstream troughing amplifies we might get this to pull further sw, still a lot of weak shortwaves running over the top.

The ECM T168hrs could be good but given the models stinge like behaviour nothing would surprise me.

Stinge is what we ended up with! How on earth did that happen, yes that piece of shortwave energy near Iberia gets picked up by the troughing to the west! not enough energy heading se.

Edited November 28, 2016 by nick sussex

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The trigger shortwave on the ECM is way over in Scandi at T144hrs but if the upstream troughing amplifies we might get this to pull further sw, still a lot of weak shortwaves running over the top.

The ECM T168hrs could be good but given the models stinge like behaviour nothing would surprise me.

Not bad....HP builds slightly further N and I'm liking the amplification shown there

[booferking]

If that dont go under then it never will.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

If that dont go under then it never will.

It's not the energy under that's the problem, it's the energy over the top. They cancel each other out and the High remains in the same place.

[igloo]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

If that dont go under then it never will.

surely it has to otherwise we may as well give up then we can get our scandi HP

[Snowman.]

192.

 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

192.

 

That looks great, look at the 3 pronged WAA attack !!

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

192.

 

I like the indent south west of Ireland, the high is trying to cut off. 

This run is still probably just about a slight fail in the end though. 

[chris55]

Pattern is a good one, 850s are a necessary evil if we ultimately end up with a proper undercut!

 

[bluearmy]

quite different to the 00z with the blast of WAA n pacific day 8.(and thus take with buckets of salt thereafter hemispherically). wonder how that might affect the segment of vortex that was drifting toward nw greeny late in the 00z run

[Snowman.]

Impressive vortex attack. Very far from your average december.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Impressive vortex attack. Very far from your average december.

Ever get sick of us being the WAA path though whilst benefiting everyone else with the resultant cold displacement?

[Ali1977]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Impressive vortex attack. Very far from your average december.

Surely we can get something impressive to the UK from here if correct, great NH profile but nothing cold (upper) wise to the UK yet. Plenty of cold attacks in other areas, and I'm confident we will get our turn we'll before Xmas.

[nick sussex]

I've never seen a block over the UK last that long without sinking and yet hardly any low heights develop underneath!

I'm bored of the high now, my patience has worn thin either get some energy underneath  or go away!

[Richard Fisher]

Stay positive folks great update from Ian tonight re cold weather ahead.

 

 

[Ali1977]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I've never seen a block over the UK last that long without sinking and yet hardly any low heights develop underneath!

I'm bored of the high now, my patience has worn thin either get some energy underneath  or go away!

 If it moves north a few hundred miles you'll be happy of its persistence !!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Still tedium at 240 hrs...