Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-198.png?12?6

Looks like it's attempting an undercut to me,

That is so so tantalisingly close to a undercut if ever I've seen one of those knifedge 49%-51%!

 

Am going to do a detailed post after the hustle of this evenings runs about how we should now be happy about current and future prospects if cold and possibly snowy weather is what you're after.

Edited by london-snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If only the ridge could push further north and drop that PV lobe into europe...

gfsnh-0-240-1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, london-snow said:

That is so so tantalisingly close to a undercut if ever I've seen one of those knifedge 49%-51%!

You could argue the undercut is already there with a string of lows below the High, the problem is the deepish low beside Iceland pressuring the block to sink away or at least maintain its position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12Z ... you're kidding me, right? Slider low at T210 and can't get uppers below 0C? 

That is a sharp, sharp knife edge on the GFS and UKMO tonight.

Edited by Man With Beard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's just got that feeing now that our patience could well finally be rewarded soon. We will all be greatful it didn't happen in early November if it comes to fruition. Come on ECM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We start like this and end like this back and fourth back and fourth.. Me thinking we will get over the winning line in the next couple of runs.:)

gfsnh-0-6.png

gfsnh-0-384.png

Edited by booferking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the UK high is guaranteed for the first couple of weeks of December, there will be no Scandi high.

Attention is really on the extended GEFS for any clues where our high might go from mid month into January.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watching these runs is turning into a tongue twister: stonking, stinking, stinking, stonking, stonking, stinking, stinks?...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately no progress with our shortwave, the GFS doesn't have enough re-curve of the jet back towards the Low Countries and so the colder air is held further to the east. At least though the sinking high and very mild air looks like being less likely, its a good sign because generally in those crud winters the high sinks quickly as the rampant jet blasts away everything in its wake.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This run frustrates me immensely, it certainly is not mild, anywho the GFS 12z waves goodbye to that North Pacific block/high, quite a considerable change in that part of the world, will it come back? topsy turvy output to be expected IMO the UK high might want to stretch its arms, go north my friend.:angel:

image.jpegimage.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems to me that we are about to get stuck into a pattern of High pressure sitting over the UK with low pressure systems squeezing in on both sides of us. 

here's today's chart TODAY.png

 

here's how it looks for Saturday'    SATURDAY.png

 

And the final frame FINAL FRAME.png

 

Rinse, repeat ??

 

I chose the wrong time of year to get an injury :(

 

Edited by EML Network

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting the cold looks like getting closer run to run who knows what's around the corner don't think going to be long :cold:before we talking snow petential 

IMG_1216.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting the cold looks like getting closer run to run who knows what's around the corner don't think going to be long :cold:before we talking snow petential 

IMG_1216.PNG

No snow whilst the high continues to sit on top of us. We need it to move eithee NE or NW - maybe one for future runs but think we may be stuck underneath it for a good few days. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting the cold looks like getting closer run to run who knows what's around the corner don't think going to be long :cold:before we talking snow petential 

IMG_1216.PNG

But not the same depth of cold to the east on the 12z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

No snow whilst the high continues to sit on top of us. We need it to move eithee NE or NW - maybe one for future runs but think we may be stuck underneath it for a good few days. 

 looking very interesting down the line with hp sat over us cold pool to the east anything is possible..:cold:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

This run frustrates me immensely, it certainly is not mild, anywho the GFS 12z waves goodbye to that North Pacific block/high, quite a considerable change in that part of the world, will it come back? topsy turvy output to be expected IMO the UK high might want to stretch its arms, go north my friend.:angel:

 

If by that you are referring to the Aleutian ridge then I'm not following you

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It's already here. OK it's not what most of us in here including me would ideally want (deep cold and snow) & some may call this "faux cold" but non the less it's still cold with a hard frost expected tonight and temps struggling tomorrow in the low single figures. Much better than rain, wind & mild temps.

True enough. Colder temperatures tonight and tomorrow night than 99% of nights last winter! But, yes, a blizzard would be better......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

If by that you are referring to the Aleutian ridge then I'm not following you

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

He's talking about the OP not the Ensembles.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, knocker said:

If by that you are referring to the Aleutian ridge then I'm not following you

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

I assume the poster refers to the op which is clearly unreliable in week 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

If by that you are referring to the Aleutian ridge then I'm not following you

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

I think he is referring to the large block on the op that was entering into the Arctic from the Pacific at the tip of alaska and russia.  Me thinks you know farewell yea cheeky Monkey.:)

 

Edited by booferking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

High pressure in no rush to leave

CyXfaVTWgAE0tyn.jpg

Not often you see the mean, Op and control all pretty close together for a 16 day period

gefsens850London0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...