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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The first -10 of the season for the season

ironically its the only ens that looks like UKMO 144 compare the 2 :)

Booferking beat you to it this time Steve :)

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11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Booferking beat you to it this time Steve :)

Pah ! 

Well done.... :)

trendsetter----- 

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LOL

If perturbation 5 of the GEFS and the UKMO are trendsetters in the 144-192 hr timeframe then I'll eat a pair of my underpants...post worn!

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Think the main and only trend is the UK will have high pressure influencing if not dominating for the next 5 or so days, question will be just how much sunshine will there be? If there is not an awful lot then night time frosts will be rather limited.

Does look like things will turn cloudier midweek onwards but perhaps sunshine becoming more widespread again by the weekend as the high is more on top of us and dragging in cooler clearer air.

Certainly a lot of interest on the ECM and for that reason, I'm more encouraged by  the prospects than I was when I was seeing those GFS Northeries in FI. At this moment in time the models do seem keen to suggest nothing wintry will come off from this potential but I have noticed those dreaded SW'lies/milder air is being pushed back somewhat. Certainly can't discount the possibility though it all could all fall flat on its face much quicker than we would like but its going to be interesting model watching for sure.

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Lows dive bombing SE would be a good thing to help suck all the cold to the NE our way 

h850t850eu (3).png

Would be great IF it came off but look at the date [doomed i think ]perhaps its on to something ,we need to stay calm like the weather , i,v just got in after a good night out , crikey its a cold one out there , cheers gang .

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Good looking Charts to be HONEST 'Better than this time last year when we were in Tropical Heat and the Horrible Nagging South West (Weather ) We are now in a Static HP that will dominate this UK for a wee while ' i have been outdoors having a smokie and i can say this is our Third night in a Row with a Northern Easterly wind . Boldly cold outside with a light frost (rural are i live ) Tomorrow Night is when all the good games begin ' Frost cold and ice ... love it ' Naff the Snaw that will come Late in December ' until then it is ....:cold::cold-emoji:

 

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could be a stonker this GFS. Dreadfull UKMO though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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As Frosty wisely reminded us yesterday D6 UKMO undercuts/highs have a poor record of verifying and yet another example this morning.

The GFS op keeps a high close to the UK throughout the run, probably the most likely pattern going forward. I am sure there will be the odd daily run that will promise height rises but until that is a consistent signal I would presume the status quo as to our weather as we work our way through December. As many on here have said a lot better than a zonal onslaught, so good stuff and only a matter of time till that feed has a more easterly component, and as we move into Winter the high will become more potent for cold. For example the 0z run being on the colder side of cool from D4 as a main. With that sort of setup if there was a pattern change we could tap into the  real cold very quickly. 

So December starts on the cool/cold side, relatively settled but lots of uncertainty as to where the block drifts, its shape and to how cold the upper flow will be. Very seasonal stuff...

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35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

could be a stonker this GFS. Dreadfull UKMO though.

Stonker it was not.

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The next couple of days.

Very cold start in N. Ireland and Scotland and will remain so with mainly clear skies, Not N. Ireland where it may well remain cloudy Elsewhere less cloud than yesterday so a pleasant day all round albeit cold.. Tomorrow not as cold in the north, although it may feel it, as the high cell re-orientates west-east as it is compressed by troughs running around to the north before dropping SE and thus initiating a brisk north westerly

1hourprecip_d02_11.png1hourprecip_d02_19.pngtemperature_d02_28.png

And so to the GFS

The energy leaving the southern States on a very strong jet impacts the HP and by Friday we have a negatively tilted trough mid Atlantic

gfs_z500a_natl_18.png

From here it gets quite messy as  the trough deconstructs with an upper low tracking SE and becoming cut off whilst the main trough continues to be reinforced and intensifies into a positively tilted trough with the Azores HP once again ridging NE along it's eastern flank by Sunday.

gfs_z500a_natl_28.png

The trough continues to make its fractured progress east and by the middle of next week troughs are impacting the UK bringing the first wet weather of the run.

gfs_z500a_natl_37.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_37.png

So in summation the UK staying under the umbrella of high pressure until the aforementioned troughs arrive but the orientation will be by no means static so cloud amounts and temperatures will br subject to fair bit of variation so suffice it to say in general remaining quite cold with temps below average and some quite severe frosts

A quick look at the GEFS anomalies indicates continued intensification of the Aleutian ridge and a vortex lobe over N. Canada, little change downstream but the temps will recover to just above average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM may look like a nothing kind of run but it does a couple things which are importsnt

 it gets some troughing into the med which has actually undercut our ridge (it's not impregnable to the south!)

the polar profile is looking very interesting by day 10 and the w Atlantic trough looks more likely to undercut at day 10+ than go over the top. would like to see the eps run with this theme a bit and see if we can contnue to build on the weakish high anomoly to our nw days 10/15 - I think the nwp is slowly going where Exeter believed it would 

very interesting isn't it? Shame this run didn't continue....

image.jpeg

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What's interesting about the ECM run is how it doesn't sink at all and maintains the latitude of the 552 line around Iceland for the entire run and actually starts building again towards the end of the run.

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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

ECM going under on this run? Interesting.

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

You can right click the chart or long press and then copy the url  and paste it directly into the comments hereECH1-72.GIF

Edited by ArHu3

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The Models really have been interesting viewing over the past 2 weeks as they have got to grips with where the blocking will take hold, With us just missing out this time round. The GFS shows High Pressure stuck over the UK for the next week, With some quite pleasant cool/dry weather to be had with overnight frosts for many. By next Wednesday it does look like the Atlantic will crank up from the N/W, Firing a deep Low up into Southern Greenland. Maybe this could be the start of our '2nd bite' so to speak..

a.pngb.pngc.png

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Gfs is interesting as there is right old battle going on with less cold weather trying to push in  from the west and we have much  colder air trying to push in from the east interesting models at the moment..:D

IMG_1212.PNG

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8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Quick summary of the big three this morning;

GFS took another tiny stuttering step forward.

UKMO took two steps back and fell off a cliff

ECM stood and watched, faintly bemused by all the commotion. 

And the lovely blocking high sits right on top of us like a big f*t women lol - well everyone did say we'd have blocking

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10 minutes ago, andymusic said:

And the lovely blocking high sits right on top of us like a big f*t women lol - well everyone did say we'd have blocking

Andy, you do realise that you're not just thinking this !!!!

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T210 on the mean and we're getting pretty close to undercutting over Iberia .............

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21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Andy, you do realise that you're not just thinking this !!!!

Just a bit infuriating that the high is just in the wrong place - and many times on here the use of the phrase - When the fat lady sings - is used - I have no problems with fat ladies in general lol - in fact i'd rather have one of them that a thin model type lol - get it model type - I wedged the word model into this - my other half always worries about me when I tell her I'm just looking at the weather models lol

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