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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Extended eps beginning to see things as per the gefs as the Siberian vortex stretches out to a n greeny segment and then becomes split - our issue re how we manage to go cold thereafter lies with the Euro high anomoly. The scrussian low anomoly persists, as does the w Atlantic trough.

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps beginning to see things as per the gefs as the Siberian vortex stretches out to a n greeny segment and then becomes split - our issue re how we manage to go cold thereafter lies with the Euro high anomoly. The scrussian low anomoly persists, as does the w Atlantic trough.

There will be much gnashing of teeth if the euro high becomes persistant!

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Particularly strong height rises over Europe can be good fuel for a HLB N E, N or NW or the UK. Hence unusually mild temps occasionally feature just before long cold spells.

Sometimes though, even this precursor stage sees some degree of undercutting jet - like with the GFS 12z days 10-14 - so it's a dry and chilly run-up for part of all of the UK.

Or if you go super-pumped up as per the ECM 12z you could manage a cold inversion under an expansive Euro High (IDO's summary above likely applicable for the N only).

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There will be much gnashing of teeth if the euro high becomes persistant!

the back end of the eps broadly following the last ec 46, although the euro heights look a tad more persistent for the same timeframe. If they continue to follow the same script then by tomorrow evening we should see them retrogress into mid Atlantic whilst the scrussian trough slowly edges its influence sw across nw Europe 

considering that we are now entering a week with a big nw European high anomoly when we should be dropping like a stone under a low one, you can understand people's lack of confidence in any cold solution!!

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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There will be much gnashing of teeth if the euro high becomes persistant!

At this rate - by the time it snows - we'll nae have any teeth!:D

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The anomalies this evening are on the same page albeit with differences.

Upstream pattern has the Aleutian ridge, HP northern Canada with the major Newfoundland trough. Some disagreement how this plays out downstream with the jet zipping out of the lower US States and tending to split mid Atlantic, with the amplification with the EPS a touch more amplified than the GEFs which backs the upper flow a tad more. This portends a continuation of the dry weather with 850mb temps a fair bit above average How this translates to surface temps depends on a number of factors, orientation of the high cell, cloud, wind and any advection in the boundary layer. No point in saying much else at this range.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

Moving into the ext period changes are afoot with some more amplification in the Pacific with the Aleutian ridge and the Canadian HP gives away to a lobe of the vortex. This in turn leads to still some differences on the amplification downstream although the essentials such as the trough in the western Atlantic and the HP adjacent to the UK still in place. Ergo a south westerly upper flow, remaining dry and 850mb temps still higher than average.

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the back end of the eps broadly following the last ec 46, although the euro heights look a tad more persistent for the same timeframe. If they continue to follow the same script then by tomorrow evening we should see them retrogress into mid Atlantic whilst the scrussian trough slowly edges its influence sw across nw Europe 

considering that we are now entering a week with a big nw European high anomoly when we should be dropping like a stone under a low one, you can understand people's lack of confidence in any cold solution!!

Absolutely!!...Keep..the...posts...coming...though...they....always...make..great..reading..;)

Edited by northwestsnow

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ens on this day last year

2s7v29v.jpg

And 12 months on

graphe_ens3_fha7.gif

Lets hope the similarities stop there!! Big week this week, METO get the some new long range seasonals out GLOSEA/EC  and FI is starting to hit mid month which looked good for the cold to start according to the Pros (potentially) !! We'll see how it goes I guess!!

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ens on this day last year

2s7v29v.jpg

And 12 months on

graphe_ens3_fha7.gif

How far back do you save them, have you got them from this time 6 years ago and this time 7 years ago by any chance?

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the back end of the eps broadly following the last ec 46, although the euro heights look a tad more persistent for the same timeframe. If they continue to follow the same script then by tomorrow evening we should see them retrogress into mid Atlantic whilst the scrussian trough slowly edges its influence sw across nw Europe 

considering that we are now entering a week with a big nw European high anomoly when we should be dropping like a stone under a low one, you can understand people's lack of confidence in any cold solution!!

Just flicked through the GFS 12z Op run BA-quite a strong signal for pronounced Atlantic ridging at the end of week 2 right up to mid-levels of the Stratosphere-matching the 500 pattern.The Strat vortex stretched but not yet split with 2 main segments Canada/Siberia.Signs of a solid blocking pattern around our locale if that trend continues,of course whether that will bring us cold remains to be seen.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Mostly?

how about the below ave temps for england 120,144,168 & 192 -? Peaking at -6?

 

I..agree...ecm..screams..cool..days/cold..nights,to..me..anyway,perhaps..colder..in..the..SE..:)

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Mostly?

how about the below ave temps for england 120,144,168 & 192 -? Peaking at -6?

 

Life under an inversion, Steve? Faux cold?:good:

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Life under an inversion, Steve? Faux cold?:good:

Cold at 850 as well :)

then faux cold 216/240

just conveniently avoided by OP ..

Edited by Steve Murr

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mostly?

how about the below ave temps for england 120,144,168 & 192 -? Peaking at -6?

 

Not on the mean uppers though Steve ?  I expect IDO doesn't have access to the ecm surface ens data.  Mind you, the above av uppers are really only 9 and 10 which is lala land so u r right to question the veracity of the original post 

 

Edited by bluearmy

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not on the mean though Steve ?  Mind you, the above av are really only 9 and 10 which is lala land so u r right to question the veracity of the original post 

 

Fair enough-

correction ( to IDO )

 

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mostly?

how about the below ave temps for england 120,144,168 & 192 -? Peaking at -6?

 

He has a unique way of interpreting the charts.

All looking interesting still imo. Roll on the 18z! 

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The gefs 12z 2m temperatures and rainfall C.England and C.Scotland

graphe6_1000_263_93___.gifc sc.gif

Single figures max's mainly -colder the first few days,especially further south with a drift off the continent. 

 

 

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Big 18z coming up steve murr!!!waiting for one of your positive updates in a few lol!!feeling quite nippy this evening already!!

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8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Again, this is misleading. Last December was unsettled, upper temperatures are a reasonable guide for surface temperatures. In anticyclonic conditions they're pretty useless, and I'm sure you know this, but others might not.

He does know! We've had the same discussion over on TWO with regards to reading too much into the upper temperatures. I'm beginning to think Gav's a mild ramper ;)

Looking forward to the 18z from GFS. Big things (in the form of continued small steps in the right direction) are expected...

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