Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[phil nw.]

Over the last 48hrs the models have all re-split the jet off the NA seaboard to around 50/50 with the result that we are close to tipping over to a cold pattern.

Some of us sussed that something was afoot by the the small but significant changes comparing the same runs from the previous days in the near time frame.Something that JH has mentioned many times in the past and is good advice especially in this type of pattern.

Looks like wave 2 action in the later frames with the Pacific ridge now showing it's hand-a pincer movement on the vortex in conjuction with the Atlantic ridging.Some fascinating model watching to come methinks.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, much better ECM! could well be ice days on this run, frost, rime, depending on cloud breaks, but as Frosty says dry! team ECM for me, other models suck tonight

[January Snowstorm]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We get the sort of undercut but positively heights are rising to the north, we could with heights dropping in the northern Med. OMG this is so close to being good  just its very finely balanced.

It's also very close to being not so good lol.

This high in situ is starting to bore me a little bit. Yes great if it moves North but we have yet to see a model that does.

I thought GP said to look Northwest. I'm not convinced that a scandi high will happen tbh

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Aye, doesn't quite make it again this run....modelling resolute with too much energy heading over the top of the HP

But each upgrade the pattern is being backed fractionally West and our ridge is better defined and stronger - upshot being a little more energy goes SE when the first trough disrupts and it is really game on.

Also each time we get a stronger block with better potential for further trough disruption and undercut 192+

We can't take the output at face value at the moment because there is a tipping point here to very cold charts and blocking or the jet riding over the top and much milder Westerlies setting in - could go either way but today has been a good day with probability of cold and blocked increasing from say 20% to 40%.

Will that trend continue tomorrow?

If it does we may well hit tipping point and see those cold blocked charts appear.

If it goes the other way then we are going to have to be patient and wait for the pattern to reamplify and the next chase which on past form shouldn't be a long  wait.

 

JMA also fails but alluding to Steve's post earlier we can see how close we are to achieving the setup we need

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The longer we keep the high, the longer we keep the nice chance of inversions and frost and fog. That's good news for winter loving folk! :-)

Yes the ECM looks  cold especially with that flow coming off the continent, could be some very frosty nights and fog. And if theres to be no snow I'd rather cold and frosty than gales and rain.

[gottolovethisweather]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It disrupts, attempts to undercut but it pretty much fills in as it does so. Not quite enough "energy" underneath the block. But at least it's holding its ground. On a separate note, barely a drop of rain for the UK on this run so far!

 

 

Indeed Nick. And past history tells me that the longer we are in this HOLDING PATTERN the better, the last thing coldies want is a moist strong SWr'ly flow at t-72 hrs. The Atlantic seems to have gone into hibernation for sure, long live the holding pattern and a chance to chill the ground for many more of us. 

Edited November 27, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

My first thought at the moment is I feel it much better to let the run complete; then assess it at leisure; then comment; but what do I know?

Where's the fun in that malcom

It looks cold and anticyclonic on the Ecm 12z with plenty of frost.

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Where's the fun in that malcom

It looks cold and anticyclonic on the Ecm 12z with plenty of frost.

Sidney,s nuts will be turning blue if the ECM verifies 

C.S

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Where's the fun in that malcom

It looks cold and anticyclonic on the Ecm 12z with plenty of frost.

Oh very true Frosty so I await the day when the ecm is two days in and somebody posts, "T240 has potential, the building blocks are all in place".

Edited November 27, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Spot the difference..lol, more runs needed!

[Snowman.]

 

T240 has potential, the building blocks are all in place

Edited November 27, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

After next weekend chilly snap the mean remains above 0 for the remainder of the run

 

Even Inverness doesn't look too cold the snow row only hit's 6

LOL You are a mild ramper Gav , you know full well the ground temps will be rather chilly

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

LOL You are a mild ramper Gav , you know full well the ground temps will be rather chilly

On..ECM..they..will..be..for..sure..

Lovely!!

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh very true Frosty so I wait the day when the ecm is two days in and somebody posts, "T240 has potential, the building blocks are all in place".

That day will come.. anyhoo, the Ecm 12z looks chilly and settled although the changing orientation of the high means increasing clouds later in the week from the NW for a time before it becomes clearer and sunnier..and colder with sharp frosts and freezing fog, which is what most of us, away from the far north will see in the next 2/3 days with temps in rural areas dropping to minus 7 celsius.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Well we survived the ECM with a sense of could be worse! Given the blow torch warmth shown a few days ago and the seemingly relentless slide into that  tropical sw flow I'd say we're in base camp with crampons at the ready. However a storm has delayed proceedings or in this case just not enough goes right between T168hrs and T240hrs.

The issue with the ECM is the block never aligns favourably and never gets sufficiently north and you must have the high angled more ne/sw to direct the colder air sw'wards. Its later output is not bad and for early winter given some of the hideous outputs we've seen in the past it could develop with more interest.

[Summer Sun]

ECM starts with high pressure and end's with high pressure a lot of very dry weather to come over the next week to 10 day's

[mountain shadow]

Models very similar to the Met Office forecast up until Christmas Day.

Anti cyclonic for the forseeable future.

 

[bobbydog]

Well.... still no model agreement, it wasn't 'resolved at 120hrs' but interesting all the same. The FI tease from the GFS of an epic scandi high in the making. 

On a lighter note, the GFS gives us roughly a rabbit at 240hrs

Then a baby pterodactyl modelling the scandi high at 384hrs

[bluearmy]

Re the ecm op run - the ridging up towards greeny is scuppered by the vortex segment being pushed towards n greeny by the quickly developing n Pacific ridge. Whilst that ridge will likely do us favours longer term, it spoils this particular run. I imagine that both the mid Atlantic and n Pacific ridges will evolve differently in twelve hours in any case !!

ar day 6/7, I really thought this run was going to be a classic given the starting point

re the back end of the gfs op - again, height rise way to our ne the secret - this time our ridge behaves to allow a cold push from the east

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Re the ecm op run - the ridging up towards greeny is scuppered by the vortex segment being pushed towards n greeny by the quickly developing n Pacific ridge. Whilst that ridge will likely do us favours longer term, it spoils this particular run. I imagine that both the mid Atlantic and n Pacific ridges will evolve differently in twelve hours in any case !!

ar day 6/7, I really thought this run was going to be a classic given the starting point

re the back end of the gfs op - again, height rise way to our ne the secret - this time our ridge behaves to allow a cold push from the east

I remember last winter a few instances where by cold was scuppered because of symoptics  that were eventually supposed to improve prospects. If my memory serves me we had the strat warming which led to an initial flushing down of the zonal winds and in the end ended up with zip. So I'm not sure if I'm in the mood for another hi I'm here to help in the long run Pacific ridge but equally might screw your only chance for cold in the next two weeks! So thanks Pacific ridge but no thanks this time. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I remember last winter a few instances where by cold was scuppered because of symoptics  that were eventually supposed to improve prospects. If my memory serves me we had the strat warming which led to an initial flushing down of the zonal winds and in the end ended up with zip. So I'm not sure if I'm in the mood for another hi I'm here to help in the long run Pacific ridge but equally might screw your only chance for cold in the next two weeks! So thanks Pacific ridge but no thanks this time. 

Exactly...I'm more interested in the here and now than what might happen 3 weeks down the line. Classic case of things just not falling right for the UK over the next week or so. 

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I remember last winter a few instances where by cold was scuppered because of symoptics  that were eventually supposed to improve prospects. If my memory serves me we had the strat warming which led to an initial flushing down of the zonal winds and in the end ended up with zip. So I'm not sure if I'm in the mood for another hi I'm here to help in the long run Pacific ridge but equally might screw your only chance for cold in the next two weeks! So thanks Pacific ridge but no thanks this time. 

You buy stock, you can earn money or loose money but the potential for big wins is much better than quickly spending money. Anyway, this is the weather, we can't do anything except watch, whatever we say or the models output won't make any difference to what we will get

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Exactly...I'm more interested in the here and now than what might happen 3 weeks down the line. Classic case of things just not falling right for the UK over the next week or so. 

I'm going to take a chill pill to get over the likely Pacific Ridge Debacle, go and watch Planet Earth 2 , hopefully they don't  stick another snake in when you're not suspecting , hate the things! I'll be back minus PR moaning later, hopefully the ECM ensembles will have a decent cluster showing a more favourable aligned high. 

[stewfox]

Another day and another 24 hrs of model watching. 21 pages last 24 hrs

Last night

The 18z continues anticyclonic stalemate

The high pressure looks to last but like the mother in law it never knows when it’s time to leave and seems to extend out to la la land. More importantly where is it going to go.

Cold nights that’s for sure in the south like they had in that place called ‘scotland’  , am I spelling that right ?, a few days back. But then what ? where is the route to snow sorry cold ?

Forget 30th Nov, forget 4th Dec mid December is new buzz word as that’s what ecm seasonal and glosea have been saying but Fergie says treat with caution. Members need a ‘date’ for the ‘arrival’ and get confused.

Today

SM get back from the pub at 5am and sees 18z NAVGEM and 00z GFS at T144 have upgraded

 Jet re-curves back westwards around the western edge of that trough (wasn't there on the 12z) which pushes the cold deeper into more of Europe. UKMO joins the party

Also some folk don’t see any improvement  but say it is still only November for the 27th time.

The issue we have is where the east Atlantic high is going ? It needs to retrogress or be 'sucked' up into the building ridge to our ne.

As we go through the day

The models have downgraded and its pointless looking beyond +144 as their ‘’not in the reliable ’ which becomes the new buz word, models are unreliable as there not showing what we want.

So lets look at ECM  T240 doesn't bring cold but ‘looks’ interesting, Looks bloo*** interesting at T240 . Is that the best we have after the ‘back ground signals’ we had in mid November

. ‘f** the ECM it will never verify any way

The GFS ‘could’ deliver a south westerly , ...........mods please delete that.

Because the high is sitting still , post have been all over the place no direction wether its good bad or poor.

Into the evening nice cold UKMO 144

But can't quite get the Atlantic split that would keep a ridge close to Iceland and send enough energy underneath - but it's very very close. And yes, even a build of heights through Scandi must be possible at even T180. 

Can we get undercuts and correction west for cold ?

Could GFS build that high from the NW, lets wait for the ECM

The ECM T144 is very nice  that block is holding much firmer with the disrupting trough trying its best to go under

The ECM  is much better than the GFS aint it always More energy going south east  and better ridging to the north west. Members ask what the f*** does this mean

It means at day 6 if all goes ok the midterm out look looks much better

UK in light NE flow - uppers in CET zone -5c & cold !

We want that higher further north to get a easterly. We want BOOM BOOM charts been a while

ECM better the UKMO . whats new ?

The Ecm 12z is much better than the 00z, everything has been shunted further west with cold upper air seeping in from the e / ne

Basically its all on a knife edge one or two more ‘upgrades’ and were in business, so chill and make a cup of tea for the mother in law and wait for the pub run lots of spare seats still available.

Cold 4 (2 back ground singles) more runs needed , T24/T48 we should have a better idea

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by stewfox

[IDO]

The ECM mean has above average uppers pretty much through most of the 10 days with +6c above average for D9 and D10:

The mean flow looks mostly sourced from the Atlantic so milder and cloudy, so frosts to certain favoured spots.

The mean is not dissimilar in synoptics to the GFS and if we split the difference (GFS over does Atlantic -v- ECM over doing heights) we will be close to the D10 chart. Average temps in D5-10, rising from a bit colder  Tuesday and Wednesday morning (frosts). If the UKMO is correct and we have this for the next few weeks then it will be a great start to Winter and lay the foundations for an interesting Jan-March.