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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Yes a very promising ECM so far, that block is holding much firmer with the disrupting trough trying its best to go under.

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The ECM at T144hrs is much better than the GFS. Surely we'll get the undercut with the ECM with more energy going se and better ridging to the nw. No undercut and the laptop is going out of the window.

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Just now, Nick L said:

Yes a very promising ECM so far, that block is holding much firmer with the disrupting trough trying its best to go under.

Really is getting close to tipping point on ECM at day 6. If it was to succeed, it would completely alter the mid range outlook.

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I'm liking the ECM much more than UKMO.. undercut incoming?

IMG_1088.GIFIMG_1087.GIF

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM at T144hrs is much better than the GFS. Surely we'll get the undercut with the ECM with more energy going se and better ridging to the nw. No undercut and the laptop is going out of the window.

You already have undercut at 144 though from the trough disruption/split flow - save the laptop! :D

 

I've not changed my opinion from first thing this morning - the undercut will come. 

ECH1-168.GIF?27-0

Edited by Mucka

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Really is getting close to tipping point on ECM at day 6. If it was to succeed, it would completely alter the mid range outlook.

I don't think it's quite going to manage it here, but promising stuff certainly.

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yes ECM increases the 'balloon' of pressure from 144-168

UK in light NE flow - uppers in CET zone -5c & pretty darn cold !!

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ECM1-168.GIF?27-0

Nice looking +168h ECM...under she goes?

Edit: Not quite, be interesting to see where it goes from here though....

ECM1-192.GIF?27-0

Edited by weatherguy

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We get the sort of undercut but positively heights are rising to the north, we could with heights dropping in the northern Med. OMG this is so close to being good  just its very finely balanced.

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The Ecm 12z is much better than the 00z, everything has been shunted further west with cold upper air seeping in from the e / ne.:cold-emoji:

168_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We get the sort of undercut but positively heights are rising to the north, we could with heights dropping in the northern Med. OMG this is so close to being good  just its very finely balanced.

Sure is.

We are one or two upgrades away from very wintry charts appearing - not that ECM is not cold at 168!

ALL the output has continued to shift toward a sharper pattern developing and the sharper we get it the more likely that vital undercut becomes.

Edited by Mucka

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This is one battle royale between the block and the Atlantic.

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Sure is.

We are one or two upgrades away from very wintry charts appearing - not that ECM is not cold at 168!

ALL the output has continued to shift toward a sharper pattern developing and the sharper we get it the more likely that vital undercut becomes.

Aye, doesn't quite make it again this run....modelling resolute with too much energy heading over the top of the HP

ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

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Close but no cigar, another upgrade on the next run and it may be enough to kick start winter. Interesting NH profile to say the least. 

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ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

Doesn't quite get there difficult to see why as we can see in between frames.

So more runs needed blah blah blah

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13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Sure is.

We are one or two upgrades away from very wintry charts appearing - not that ECM is not cold at 168!

ALL the output has continued to shift toward a sharper pattern developing and the sharper we get it the more likely that vital undercut becomes.

 
 
 
 
 
 

And of note yesterday's ECM 12z had cold uppers incoming from D5 or thereabouts too. Feet firmly on the ground but tentative signs of the dice being loaded towards colder scenarios if still dry for the vast majority. I believe the short-term pattern will likely upgrade too, with Countryfile and tomorrow's Beeb forecasts hopefully showing the first hints at this. Cannot rule out the odd warmer day but as stated earlier much of the near-term forecasts hint at double-digit maximums being a rarity away from the far NW throughout the whole of next week and potentially beyond. BANK!

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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3 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

Doesn't quite get there difficult to see why as we can see in between frames.

So more runs needed blah blah blah

It disrupts, attempts to undercut but it pretty much fills in as it does so. Not quite enough "energy" underneath the block. But at least it's holding its ground. On a separate note, barely a drop of rain for the UK on this run so far!

Edited by Nick L

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Cold and very anticyclonic Ecm 12z

192_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp500.png

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Sure is.

We are one or two upgrades away from very wintry charts appearing - not that ECM is not cold at 168!

ALL the output has continued to shift toward a sharper pattern developing and the sharper we get it the more likely that vital undercut becomes.

It needs much more energy under the block otherwise the coldest air heads into central and southern Europe and the high is the wrong shape. Of course after the GFS damp squib I'll take this for now.

We are though getting closer to the tipping point.

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1 minute ago, Beast said:

Hi everyone

I've decided to join after many many years of lurking in the background lol

ive learnt so much from you guys over the years and I've got a good feeling about this winter 

keep up the good work guys and I hope my username gets a few mentions in the not too distant future 

 

Im sure if you bring us luck in getting this easterly in you will get mention and much more..:)

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The longer we keep the high, the longer we keep the nice chance of inversions and frost and fog. That's good news for winter loving folk! :-)

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