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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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7 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

Here's the BBC's thoughts on the long term model output 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38112506

Cold could come back with a vengeance towards mid month - I know he is only saying it could , I mean it could be really warm - however coldies hang off every word at this time of year...do they know something we don't , well quite probably!!!

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Well it does evolve closely to the ec46 which can't be a bad thing going forward

in my opinion, this extended run increases the likelihood of amplification to our west in the 10/15 day period and a potential polar split thereafter with the aleutian ridge strengthening. 

yes there were signs of a wave 2 split roughly from GL to near Aleutians on the GEFS mean around the 250 mark on the 6z.

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That BBC forecast looks pretty close to the mark. Milder conditions favoured but given the complications upstream any high might end up further to the nw.

At least there will be some drier weather for a time and once the flow moves round more to the ese/se clearer air from the continent should bring some frosty nights.

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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Off the 10-15 day chart then, is this the evolution that "could" lead to the colder middle of Dec that some are mentioning? Will the block come from the other side Alaskan side to create a poss pole heights/block?

There is no strikingly obvious route at the moment. To my eye anyway.  I would perhaps be looking for some more amplification in the Atlantic with a view to height build to the north west but that's really just me musing.

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Interesting forecast from john hammond ,they think it will turn milder for a short time ,before the cold weather comes back with a vengance mid _month ,ties in with the met office updates so all to play for still :)

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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold could come back with a vengeance towards mid month - I know he is only saying it could , I mean it could be really warm - however coldies hang off every word at this time of year...do they know something we don't , well quite probably!!!

No, they are going off EC46 and Glosea5, and probably the pointers GP, Tony, Matt, Tamara use as forecasting tools as well.

EDIT - Well they do know something actually - a lot more about meteorology than i do!!!!

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, they are going off EC46 and Glosea5, and probably the pointers GP, Tony, Matt, Tamara use as forecasting tools as well.

There is a lot more and better output available commercially, we only get ec teasers, for the good stuff you need to pay

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5 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

Here's the BBC's thoughts on the long term model output 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38112506

So thus my point earlier a forcast provided 3 days ago frost and snow was the way by the same team now undecided. I rest my above comments post my case your cold honour...

mild or cold who knows but it is a facinating situation somethings afoot if they keep sticking their necks out about going cold (even thought it's been put further back)..

 

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On 11/24/2016 at 15:21, Ed Stone said:

Just going to say the same Nick.theirs panick in the camp with the way forward ref, cold but we are at least running to the start line!!! Which has to be a start!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

god knows why i have Ed stone quote. ;-)

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I don't particularly buy in to this mild now but cold mid December talk. Tbh it's a bit of a cod where a lrf is wrong so time to move the goal posts. We have been told for several weeks that early Dec was the time. It hasn't worked out so lo and behold it's now mid month for  cold.....

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Looks like the GFS has now given up the ghost and caved in completely after days of throwing out some colder solutions. In typical GFS style its now much more progressive over the USA and flatter in the Atlantic than the ECM.

Whilst the ECM can be a bit wayward post T144hrs it hardly ever continues with the wrong solution for days within that timeframe. This is now two abject failures by the GFS in two weeks and it looks like normal service has been resumed with it constantly playing catch up.

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Whilst the models are trending to something milder and atlantic influenced as we enter December, with even suggestions of southwesterly mildness, none are showing any resurgent jetstream, indeed it is still forecast to be rather amplified, and this is key. Reading some of the longer range forecasts, and looking at stratospheric influences combined with MJO forecast patterns, all eyes should be on developments with east pacific ridging, as I believe this is the key controlling feature on the overall pattern as we move further through December. Many are suggesting it will build and ridge into the arctic, consequence effect, greater amplification, with the current pattern heading westwards, end result a cross polar profile ripe for cold air advection our way, with the PV shunted towards siberia, and in weak power.

So a temporary milder and probably not particularly wet interlude around the 4-9 Dec mark, quite plausible, but trending colder again thereafter. 

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The Gfs 18z shows Jack frost will be busy for a while, especially further south during next week with high pressure bringing crisp bright days and frosty nights with fog patches.:D

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

This is as far as I'd pay much attention to the ECM 12z; the way the secondary low then moves east on the N. flank of the longwave Atlantic trough is unconvincing. Having said that, the notion of strong height rises across Europe does tie in with the analogues for a tropical wave moving through the Maritime Continent in December (phases 4-5)..

How are you managing to tie the ECM we see to a Maritime continent MJO

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

From what I see, ECM (yellow) and the others are all forecast to reverse the direction. 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 18z shows Jack frost will be busy for a while, especially further south during the first half of next week at least with high pressure bringing crisp bright days and frosty nights with fog patches.:D

ukmintemp.png

Perfect late autumn weather, just like winters when I was a lad!  There's been some excellent updates today from our most learned contributors regarding a pre Christmas cold spell, just when we would want it, so I'm more than happy to wait for another couple of weeks. We've waited four years after all (well those in the south anyway)!

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I'm glad FI is in FI, no cold looking charts there with the PV very much re-established but the aleution ridge is building again!! Further into FI things looking a bit better and I guess it'll be around today's FI at 384 is where we should be looking ..

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11 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

How are you managing to tie the ECM we see to a Maritime continent MJO

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

From what I see, ECM (yellow) and the others are all forecast to reverse the direction. 

I'm saying it matches what may occur if we see the tropical wave head through 5-6 as per the expextations of many professionals.

That the ECMF mean doesn't do that means ECM's similarity looks to be coincidental. My point is - the kind of milder spell ECM shows is worth bracing yourself for as it really has a chance - and the BBC seem to concur  though I still wouldn't bet any money on it given some scope for extra amplification next week that still remains in place.

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On 17/11/2016 at 22:33, Barry95 said:

First it was the middle of November, then the end of November, and now the start of December for the pattern change to significant blocking! Let's hope this isn't a theme of this winter as I have dejavu of this thing happening  from the last couple of winters.

Now it's starting to move into the middle of December...

When looking at the models past day 7, do not take it seriously, even if it's got support from it's ensembles. 99/100 times it leads to disappointment, and even if does become cold it's usually watered down. December 2010 is the only time the amazing sypnoptics actually verified in the last 25+ years. The 'experts' on here keep saying 'patience', and then push the forecasted time for the cold back! After last winter, I'm starting to run out of patience!

Still early days yet though.

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Hi guys. It's my first time posting in here so sorry if it's slightly off topic, but I don't think we should worry too much. Even if there is a mild/very mild start to December, that doesn't mean the rest of the winter will be mild and mushy. The start of December 1985 was exceptionally mild and look at how cold February 1986 was. :)

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