Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To repeat those immortal words in Total Recall! Get ready for a surprise! Nice ECM T216hrs with the cut off low and northerly on the way at T240hrs.

It even makes a dogs dinner though at T240

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To repeat those immortal words in Total Recall! Get ready for a surprise! Nice ECM T216hrs with the cut off low and northerly on the way at T240hrs.

Not far away at 240 just need to give them a nudge and we are in the freezer

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ended promisingly with cold air beginning to dig south and plenty of upstream potential for a cold outbreak developing but before that there is wintry weather of the frost and freezing fog variety with surface cold..tonight's ecm is win win for coldies!

Edited November 22, 2016 by Frosty.

[swfc]

vast change on the ecm from this morning !!!

volatile and not really any point in hanging on to any run past the 140 hour mark imo

[bluearmy]

Not had time to make this post but after the 12's seems a good moment

the nwp seems v unpredictable for early December - there are solutions which bring in winter (more than frost and fog) but they are very inconsistent 

it seems to me that we may have to wait for the Siberian vortex to get itself in order on a N/S axis down the meridian (as strat forecasts also have it) before we can look to get a consistent signal for the cold to head south. Whilst there remains little vortex pockets across the polar field, it seems we lack the 'oomph' to drive the cold far enough south before the jet intervenes and drives a mid lat high in our direction. Even then, we have to see what pattern exists over nw Europe and the Atlantic - it may go east, it may not quite make it across the country

that would put the most likely arrival of winter around 5 December although an earlier attempt could succeed if the ducks all fall in a row. And again, the Atlantic ridging could end up rather too close to the UK but I'm reasonably optimistic at the moment

 

Edited November 22, 2016 by bluearmy

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z ended promisingly with cold air beginning to dig south and plenty of upstream potential of a cold outbreak developing but before that there is wintry weather of the frost and freezing fog variety..tonight's ecm is win win for coldies!

Yep,no complaints from me,get the cold locked in first then hopefully the snow will follow

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To repeat those immortal words in Total Recall! Get ready for a surprise! Nice ECM T216hrs with the cut off low and northerly on the way at T240hrs.

Indeed nick The Ecm 12z ends a lot better upstream compared to the 00z with cold air poised..

Edited November 22, 2016 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Fascinating circumstances and prospects right now.

First week of December coming into view, and, with not all the ducks properly aligned (just yet), we are looking at below average temps for much of UK, more so Scotland.

The convective anomaly centred over the Indian Ocean is showing eastward propagation. Slow, but steady.

As soon as that hits the Maritimes, we should see a more amplified hemispheric pattern develop centred on a poleward displaced North Pacific ridge. We are already beginning to see this in the extended range modelling.

The mid Atlantic ridge also likely to gain traction under this regime.

Angular momentum will also spike once the convective wave pushes into the West Pacific with a +ve mountain torque, with likely hemispheric reinforcement of Rossby Wave pattern.

The stratosphere also holding deep interest. That ridge associated with the initial warming phase is starting to look like it will drift around the Arctic basin, becoming Atlantic based week 2-3. With another warming over Siberia, the Aleutian stratospheric ridge likely to be in play over the top of a tropospheric ridge - could well be a sizeable height anomaly developing in the North Pacific through Alaska during that time. So that means we may well have two ridges peprendicular to the Pole - ripe conditions to support tropospheric cross polar ridges. Keep an eye on the GFS and GEFS as they are just starting to advertise early stages of this.

Hmmmm (assuming this point hasn't been made earlier)

[Matthew.]

It's nice to see HP in charge from the ECM for the next week. Will make for much better conditions than the last couple of days and feel warmer too without the wind. Does look similar to this time 3 years ago. Let's hope that's where the similarities end!

[karlos1983]

LOL watching the new ECM and it got stage fright from 216 to 240, I would have bet my mortgage on that delivering a northerly at 240.

Kind of sums up our luck at the moment. Even when it seems impossible to not get cold, we find a way. I have a feeling in my bones though that our patience will pay off big time at some stage in December! Bring it on! 

Still a fairly impressive chart at 240 it has to be said if blocky is your thing!

Edited November 22, 2016 by karlos1983

[weatherguy]

Wonderful chart here, with imminent deep cold en route - see the benefit of this holding up of the pattern for the UK perspective from early-Nov, as a genuine cold pool has been allowed to develop to our E/NE.

 +240h though, yet again, and therefore I wouldn't pay much heed towards that beyond the general theme of HP taking hold over the next week or two, with steadily declining temperatures being the form horse.  

 

[Ali1977]

The forum had a similar buzz about it at this time yesterday, then that started going downhill from the EPS onwards. Hopefully a decent set of EPS at a good pub run to finish the day - guessing the EPS will be the upgraded version too.  

[Lampostwatcher]

a good evenings runs and plenty to be positive about as we head into the first month of winter loving the end of the ECM run so much different from last years start to winter and fingers crossed this time the fun and games begin sooner rather than later this autumn has had an 80's feel to it so hope history can repeat its self 

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

To repeat those immortal words in Total Recall! Get ready for a surprise! Nice ECM T216hrs with the cut off low and northerly on the way at T240hrs.

I've set the alarm for T48 and T24 

Edited November 22, 2016 by stewfox

[mcweather]

yet again some interesting runs this evening.

 

I think one has to be philosophical about model viewing in November.

Much as us coldies would love some lowland snow in November especially having been spoilt as recently as 2010 with ice days thrown as well even down here in Dorset.

But if one wants the greater prize of a decent and reasonably long lasting winter then one needs  to remember that no great long lasting winter ever started in November and held all the way through to the end of Feb.  1947 didn't start until late Jan and 1962/3 didn't really get going until the final week of Dec 62, indeed a look at the charts around the 19th/20 Dec 1962 would give you no sign that the coldest winter since 1740 was in the offing.

May be its just being a veteran of 57 winters but for me especially in the south of  the UK the watchword has to be patience, unfortunately we live in an order it today and get it tomorrow society which in which patience has become a dirty word. On a personal note I would happily take what's on offer for the next two weeks and have the real stuff kick around mid December as per IF and Glacier Points professional suggestions.

Again winters starting in November or early December like 2010 or 1981 don't really hold. give me a mid to late December start for the real action any day.

GP''s post earlier today is very inciteful especially given the north hemisphere view at the end of the 12z ECM and some of the GEFS charts around the same time.

One can understand after last years record warm December that people want to get things kicked off cold and snow wise as soon as possible but our greatest winters show that patience shown at this time  of year can pay huge dividends down the line.

[Allseasons-Si]

I thought that i would borrow mr sussex's scribbling playtime pens for a bit if you don't mind Nick

just to illustrate where we are this year looking at 144hrs from the 12z gfs for example,look how amplified it is compared to last year when we was staring down the barrel of the Atlantic train and a rampant PV

now that ECM @ 240 hrs,i know it's FL but has got big potential red line showing how amplified it is,green arrow showing WAA pumped up into the pole forcing CAA south,yellow arrow,if that Newfoundland spoiler shortwave hadn't of been there it would of been a cleaner route to cold,on the plus side,look at where the PV is,nowhere to be seen nr Greenland that's for sure

how desperate was we to find these charts last winter and the one before,so certainly looking a lot better this year,may them continue 

[booferking]

The ECM mean not bad either.

 

[Ali1977]

ECM mean looking good, decent ridge heading up to West Greenland. 

Temps are heading up near day 10 on the de-built ENS, but show the surface cold well before that. Hopefully someone posts the extended when they're out.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM mean looking good, decent ridge heading up to West Greenland. 

And it's keeping an eye on Siberia

lovely mean.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a bad trend to build heights to our north west, though it could do with shifting east a bit.

         

There could be the potential for slightly milder but much wetter conditions for a time as the flow backs west/south westerly and the troughing squeezes out any remaining higher heights over Europe, before hopefully we can pull in some arctic air from the north.

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And it's keeping an eye on Siberia

lovely mean.

With a mean like that there must be some stonking Northerlies in some individual runs.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very good, firstly we see high pressure taking centre stage with fine and chilly surface conditions, especially once we have had a few sharp frosts, and fog becomes freezing in places and could linger to produce some very cold days. Then the trend is unsettled from the NW with potential for a proper arctic outbreak further ahead. 

[ribster]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Not had time to make this post but after the 12's seems a good moment

the nwp seems v unpredictable for early December - there are solutions which bring in winter (more than frost and fog) but they are very inconsistent 

it seems to me that we may have to wait for the Siberian vortex to get itself in order on a N/S axis down the meridian (as strat forecasts also have it) before we can look to get a consistent signal for the cold to head south. Whilst there remains little vortex pockets across the polar field, it seems we lack the 'oomph' to drive the cold far enough south before the jet intervenes and drives a mid lat high in our direction. Even then, we have to see what pattern exists over nw Europe and the Atlantic - it may go east, it may not quite make it across the country

that would put the most likely arrival of winter around 5 December although an earlier attempt could succeed if the ducks all fall in a row. And again, the Atlantic ridging could end up rather too close to the UK but I'm reasonably optimistic at the moment

 

Markedly less knowledgeable than yourself, but I've been flicking through the charts in recent days and have to agree, period 4th to 6th December keeps cropping up, time will tell, but very exciting...

[knocker]

The 6-10 anomalies are not in complete agreement although more or less on the same page. The differences do however leave room for a continued disagreement of the surface evolution in the latter stages of the period vis the det, runs.

It essentially centres on the intensity and orientation of the trough to the west of the UK and how this impacts similarly on the HP to the east and the cut off low to the SSW  The upstream pattern is looking okay to it boils down to the distribution of the energy emitted frpm N. Canada and the eastern seaboard.

Oh and the temp anomaly

[Allseasons-Si]

The 8-14 dayer looks better though Knocker,i know it's 8-14 days away though but more of a marked trough into scandi compared to last night's

oh!,and i do like the ecm ens mean height anomalies with the lp's dancing around at the mid latitudes and the hp NE Canada/greenland saying you shall not pass

Edited November 22, 2016 by Allseasons-si