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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Lost for words 

IMG_3722.JPG

Looks like a SSC  - Sudden stratospheric cooling?

 

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Should be in the strat thread for discussion? 

Based on a run but not a huge surprise - we need some more wave breaking. Will have ramifications for later in December if continuing unchecked. Ian has tried to put this over several times. 

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  • High pressure rooted over Central/Northern UK from midweek onwards, with a chilly E'ly for the South. Hello Winter 2016 !! :cold:

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14 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:
  • High pressure rooted over Central/Northern UK from midweek onwards

 

I'm just looking forward to high pressure, Ecm 00z looking nice

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Edited by Frosty.

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Still chasing the pot of gold it seems , no signs of any sustained block that would gives us anything wintry ..............................................yet

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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Lost for words 

IMG_3722.JPG

Fortunately the vortex is massively displaced. I wouldn't expect that chart to be like that for long.-

gfsnh-10-384.png

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Slim pickings and all rather fleeting

gensnh-1-1-312.pnggensnh-17-1-300.pnggensnh-18-1-384.pnggensnh-20-1-300.png

 

gensnh-4-1-288.png

gensnh-6-1-336.png

gensnh-12-1-324.png

gensnh-13-1-372.pnggensnh-15-1-300.png

Apologies for the layout, in a bit of a rush . All glancing blows of cold

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26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Lost for words 

IMG_3722.JPG

What quite often happens is the forecast is for a certain area of the pole and as the vortex displaces it crosses this area

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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Should be in the strat thread for discussion? 

Based on a run but not a huge surprise - we need some more wave breaking. Will have ramifications for later in December if continuing unchecked. Ian has tried to put this over several times. 

Well actually it could have ramifications at trop level, so I disagree. 

let's just hope it's the result of one poor run. 

Edited by karlos1983

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The GEFS 00z mean has a pleasant look to it after mid week until almost next mid week with high pressure in control.:)

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49 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well actually it could have ramifications at trop level, so I disagree. 

let's just hope it's the result of one poor run. 

I meant 'as well' karlos

Extended eps same page as previously but again by the end of week two trending away from maintaining euro low heights as the Atlantic comes in from a westerly trajectory bringing an Azores ridging (likely transient but what will it leave behind to our south?) with it

of course that could throw up many solutions and not all of them mild and it's a long way away!

 

Edited by bluearmy

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I meant 'as well' karlos

Extended eps same page as previously but again by the end of week two trending away from maintaining euro low heights as the Atlantic comes in from a westerly trajectory bringing an Azores ridging (likely transient but what will it leave behind to our south?) with it

of course that could throw up many solutions and not all of them mild and it's a long way away!

 

We are trending in the wrong direction if cold and snow is what we want - some of the modelling is picking up height increases to our south and south west.  Let's hope this is just a blip, but I've got a feeling that the Azores High (aka the Winter killer) ridging into Europe could be a pain in the neck come early December.

Edited by mulzy

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26th to 2nd the GFS op is on the cold side of the mean

3rd to 7th it's on the mild side of the mean

t850London.png

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Hi all the rollercoaster  continues . . Is this rise in pressure over  Scandinavia a hint of cold could come from the north east rather then north west as we go on in to  December ???

IMG_1189.PNG

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10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

We are trending in the wrong direction if cold and snow is what we want - some of the modelling is picking up height increases to our south and south west.  Let's hope this is just a blip, but I've got a feeling that the Azores High (aka the Winter killer) ridging into Europe could be a pain in the neck come early December.

Absolutely, the trend at the moment is not what we want to see, still, a settled week on the cards for most, beggars ( which cold hunters in the uk certainly are), cant be choosers...

Edited by northwestsnow

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ECM Mean still looking good to me.

PV well away from its normal location, so it's very much as we were.

I committed the cardinal sin this morning of over reacting to one chart, I should know better :oops:

EDH1-240.gif

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14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

3. The models NEVER deal well with anything that runs counter to a westerly regime. They are all poor at modelling amplification in detail, and poor in dealing with blocking highs in terms of positioning and longevity. As IanF has said countless times - the spread of possible options as we reach the end of November is huge.

^^^ This, in buckets!

We've seen fairly big swings both within and across model suites in the last few weeks. We've got a pattern that just isn't the 'normal' situation so we can't be sure how well or not the models are coping with it. It'll be interesting to look back in a couple of weeks time at the verification stats and see just how well they've done compared to how they usually do. Even the strat wind forecast graph posted earlier is the product of a model, and subject to the same sorts of uncertainties.

Edited by Ravelin

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26 minutes ago, mulzy said:

We are trending in the wrong direction if cold and snow is what we want - some of the modelling is picking up height increases to our south and south west.  Let's hope this is just a blip, but I've got a feeling that the Azores High (aka the Winter killer) ridging into Europe could be a pain in the neck come early December.

 
 
 

As for trends, no trend is worth nailing to the mast past D6 or D7 at the moment as mentioned last night. With high pressure in charge for most from the middle of the week, this pre mid-range scenario is perfect for the cold brigade in here (if not a little tiresome for a few). If things carried on as per where we are right now in my neck of the woods, rain, murk and 7c by day and night, I'd be well annoyed. The fact is spells of calm, dry weather and a distinct lack of Atlantic driven weather are just what coldies should be welcoming with open arms. Throughout history, they've provided a base from which the coldest episodes have started. Mark my words, nowt much will be going on with the various outputs if you're looking for the holy grail of widespread falling snow for a few days yet but I for one, aren't looking past the drier evolution yet, bar some colder polar signals at the turn of November. A crisp cold frosty last few days to November is what I'd be wishing for, and I may well get my wish, but for now, I'd suggest we all back off from jumping on every run and look for evidence of matching 0z and 12z runs.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Or indeed match 0z runs with 0z runs (or 12z and 12z) over a reasonable time period, 3-4 days minimum to get some idea of trends, staying within perhaps 144hrs to discount the noise (though of course keeping an eye on any consistencies between runs for further out in time).  Try it with hemispheric patterns too if you can.  That way you can separate out what are model vagaries from the likely developing trends.

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Well no complaints about the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, it shows high pressure taking over with bright chilly crisp days and frosty nights with fog patches, the fine weather lasts longest in the south with a ridge still in place by day 9 but from T+240 its trending unsettled from the NW. This fine benign weather will be welcomed following all the recent / current rain and gales. :)

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ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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One thing for sure we cant count anything out an easterly is possible with the height rises towards scandi recently.

gfs-0-132.png

 

Getting closer

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-0-168.png

Edited by booferking

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So the USA gets the cold in FI again, and no doubt that will materialise !! 

IMG_3595.PNG

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

So the USA gets the cold in FI again, and no doubt that will materialise !! 

IMG_3595.PNG

We get the cherry they get the Sundae.

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