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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the spread!!!!

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Indeed, but unless my eyes are deceiving me, the majority seem to be trending down. Nothing spectacular, but it's going in the right direction.

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Blimey, Scandi high becoming a possibility now according to some GEFS members at 192.

They don't last long though to be fair , we need a few more showing this

gensnh-5-1-300.png

But around the 7 8 day mark before we sit up and really take notice .....all looks messy

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Indeed, but unless my eyes are deceiving me, the majority seem to be trending down. Nothing spectacular, but it's going in the right direction.

slightly but I think the cold ones are just getting colder and the mild ones getting milder, the mean pretty much unchanged.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

slightly but I think the cold ones are just getting colder and the mild ones getting milder, the mean pretty much unchanged.

Nice too see a couple going off the chart!! That can only be from heights to our NE surely 

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice too see a couple going off the chart!! That can only be from heights to our NE surely 

Yes, good to see they've added a -5c line.

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12z IMG_3720.GIF

18zIMG_3721.GIF

colder members gaining some momentum 

Edited by karlos1983

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the spread!!!!

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

For me they are the only decent thing about today's output.

Downward trend and small cold cluster for early Dec while the mild members are well spread.

Similar theme with GFS but the cold members are fewer so much weaker signal.

graphe3_1000_293_139___.gif

Hoping for improvements through next week rather some of the dross GFS has churned out since this mornings wonder chart.

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If we are going to look at FI in this depth then it seems to me the mean for the GEFS is quite an upgrade on the 12Z (FWIW) with a much more pronounced ridge to our W.

 

 

 

 

I can't believe people are complaining they have not had any snow before winter has even started and the fixation with every op run.

 

Things looking pretty good overall as far as I can see. Lots of changes to come though

gensnh-21-1-360.png

Edited by swilliam

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14 minutes ago, Banbury said:

They don't last long though to be fair , we need a few more showing this

gensnh-5-1-300.png

But around the 7 8 day mark before we sit up and really take notice .....all looks messy

Yea they do but just before one of the ens takes up back to the 70s 80s

gensnh-14-1-336.png

gensnh-14-0-360.png

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea they do but just before one of the ens takes up back to the 70s 80s

gensnh-14-1-336.png

gensnh-14-0-360.png

Bank. The ensembles as a whole seem more markedly split than in a long while. The spread is larger and the gaps between colder and milder solutions has grown - a trend repeated on the ECM. A clear indication that uncertainty is incredibly high. My gut tells me that we will miss the opportunity; you can, as any arsenal fan will tell you, only get so many bites at the cherry. A case of watch this space for coming runs...

Edited by ITSY

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First post on here, so be kind to me.

Looks like a slow decline towards a scandi high & blocking over the northern continental mass area.  ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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Why look so Far into FI ? Charts are Amazing for Cold lovers ' Proof is that it never happens .. Stick to METO .. We all been down this Gravy Train before . But without the Rue .:cc_confused: With this Forum .

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Surely it's silly to get downbeat about our future prospects in the early last third of November anyway. How many of the great Winters started in the models reliable time frame as of now anyway? Almost none is how many. I can understand the rush and panic though after 3 awful Winters (from a coldies/snow lovers perspective) but we really do have to recognise and appreciate the time of year it is right now and that at this time of year our expectations based on the historical data should be limited anyway. People may look to the golden age of cold Winters but in reality few of even those Winters got cold and snowy this early or even for most of December. And with the background signals looking decent for the time being there is still a lot to play for. I know there is worry these could become less favourable in time, but at the same time perhaps these signals could change little for a long time. After all we all know that these signals (whatever they may indicate) have had a habit in recent years to be stuck in situ for extended periods, so perhaps little will change in that regard for the whole Winter period (not counting on such obviously but at the same time it gives me better hope than the background signals we were stuck with in late Autumn 2013 & 2015 for example). Personally my feelings about this coming Winter are good, Amen, and with more than 3 months to go until Spring arrives that it a massive timeframe for opportunity and manoeuvre. 

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First decent GEM run in a long time, maybe it's an omen.

gemnh-0-234.png?00

 

Let's hope so as GFS is keep on the hair drier again in deepest FI

gfsnh-0-384.png

Edited by Mucka

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Another poor Gfs op run in so far as early Dec is concerned.Hopefully Ecm will be better because the signal, certainly as far as Gfs is concerned, is poor with heights building to our SE,thats 2 ops on the bounce, too much energy in the Atlantic, again....

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24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Another poor Gfs op run in so far as early Dec is concerned.Hopefully Ecm will be better because the signal, certainly as far as Gfs is concerned, is poor with heights building to our SE,thats 2 ops on the bounce, too much energy in the Atlantic, again....

This time though, the ens were poor as well, some cheer on the ECM though, its going to be a cracker at 240.

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Such good consistency between the ECM and GFS 0Z runs at T192 that I'd to double check I wasn't looking at the same chart twice before I posted. 

ECH1-192.GIF?21-12 gfsnh-0-192.png

Both agreeing that the high soon to be over us eventually heads East rather than West. Not quite sure where that's going to leave us, if it turns out that way. 

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The ecm has a remarkable similar evolution to the GFS above taking everything into consideration.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The ecm has a remarkable similar evolution to the GFS above taking everything into consideration.

Even by t240 they are still in the same ballpark 

ECH1-240.GIF?21-12  gfsnh-0-240.png

Which now of course means that neither will be right and by tomorrow we'll probably be looking at something completely different. :fool:

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So according to the GFS and ECM 00z runs we see enough amplification to generate an 'in the way' pumped up ridge just E of us but then not enough to dig a trough right down through the UK with the Atlantic jet far south for interesting interaction with the rise of heights to our NW. Though ECM might be pretty close.

Not sure where GFS' Mid-Atlantic trough and Euro ridge combination is coming from in the 10-16 day range in terms of teleconnections - anyone got any ideas?

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The GEFS 10-15 anomaly this morning is very much along the lines already previously indicated by all the anomalies. A trough over the UK,and  some ridging NW in the Atlantic towards the positive Canadian anomaly   But the two troughs, one in the SW of the US and the other in the western Atlantic, should be noted. A lot of energy is coming out of this area and certainly influencing the downstream evolution. It's keeping our weather quite honest

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker

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Not sure I understand the disappointment with GFS output. Generally keeps the UK at average or below average, all be it slightly, for the foreseeable. Ensembles all over the play again after day 6, so the chances of any continuity between runs seems unlikely at the moment.

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The Gfs 00z shows pressure gradually rising through this week with pleasant looking charts from thursday until early next week.:)

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

h500slp (2).png

h500slp (3).png

ukmaxtemp.png

h500slp (4).png

Edited by Frosty.

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