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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A lot of dross in there too...circa 60% end up with no discernible wintry pattern at all by day 16. No wonder Ian F has said there's a raft of outcomes on the table at present.

Can you post them cc, febblizzard saying best of the season and you saying 60% poor???

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Just now, CreweCold said:

A lot of dross in there too...circa 60% end up with no discernible wintry pattern at all by day 16. No wonder Ian F has said there's a raft of outcomes on the table at present.

Yes but at that range, theres always going to be some dross, ive seen a massive split before, ive seen an almost 50/50 split with half flatlining near -10c (easterly) and the other half firing the jet up over the top, sinking a high and ending up with a Bartlett at +5c before with hardly anything in between.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The GEFS anomaly this evening continuing the trend of late, supported previously to some extent by NOAA and the EPS, of retrogressing the HP and ridging it NW whilst dropping a trough south just to the east. This would portend a cool north westerly flow in general but the detail and subsequent transitional variations as systems traverse from the west would depend on future det. runs and of course subsequent input from NOAA and th EPS. Temps would trend to a little below average with this scenario.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Agree with this post in the main but its not impossible though that temps could trend well below average as opposed to a little below.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh I do love a nice unstable northerly

gensnh-2-1-360.png

Yep there are some decent looking perturbations around but would like to see these at 144 hrs rather than nearer 384!

Agree I'd wish we see some trends gather speed either way It's no point hoping on dream runs 300+ hours away.

As I said last night the longer these 'dream runs' remain just that the more chance of the Atlantic return and I stand by this. 

 

Fair enough some up north has seen snow already but the majority on here don't care about snow falling at higher ground we want widespread and that's what I struggle to see going forward. 

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14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Some fantastic ENS out there - It would be nice to hear the EPS/GLOSEA see a similar pattern 

The eps have been for at least a week and the ec 46 from further out. 

the ecm run in an hour will only go to day 10 so you need to look upstream at the end and judge for yourself

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Can you post them cc, febblizzard saying best of the season and you saying 60% poor???

The difference is the good ones all show Northerlies, the not so good ones are a mix of everything - therefore the trend is a Northerly!! I am an optimist though

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52 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Saying that, not far off a 78/79 grail scenario here. I suspect the N of the UK would be buried under feet of the stuff whilst the south is slightly milder

gfsnh-0-372.png?12

Zonality reversed there!

With a few tweaks it could be very good....

archivesnh-1962-12-27-12-0.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Can you post them cc, febblizzard saying best of the season and you saying 60% poor???

850s ensemble graph doesn't look too bad, but doesn't tell the story RE the synoptics on offer. By 384 a lot are either 'messy' and unsettled or the last vestiges of a colder spell between 240-300 hrs are on their way out. Too many images to post but here are a couple picked at random

gensnh-20-1-372.png

gensnh-17-1-384.png

gensnh-14-1-372.png

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There are some cracking GEFS 12z perturbations..winter wonderland stuff!:D

0_360_850tmp.png

2_360_850tmp.png

4_384_850tmp.png

4_384_2mtmpmax.png

5_384_850tmp.png

5_384_2mtmpmax.png

6_384_850tmp.png

6_384_2mtmpmax.png

8_384_850tmp.png

8_384_2mtmpmax.png

9_384_850tmp.png

9_384_2mtmpmax.png

17_336_850tmp.png

17_336_2mtmpmax.png

18_336_850tmp.png

1074-150x150.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree with this post in the main but its not impossible though that temps could trend well below average as opposed to a little below.

Of course it's not impossible feb but we are talking 10-15 days down  the line so it doesn't pay to get too excited over one run. My gut feeling about these sort of set ups is transitional cold slots interspersing the generally unsettled/settled scenario.

Edited by knocker

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Getting better! Nice mean as well, sub 0 T850's from the 2nd

IMG_3715.GIF

come on ECM 

Edited by karlos1983

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Of course it's not impossible feb but we are talking 10-15 days down  the line so it doesn't pay to get too excited over one run. My gut feeling about these sort of set ups is transitional cold slots interspersing the generally unsettled/settled scenario.

You are quite right, Malcolm (about taking any one run as Gospel)...Then again, when was the last run, be it GFS or ECM, that showed a PV as wonderfully incoherent as this year's?:D

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ECM isn't far from a cracker.

Bitter cold building to our East and attempted riding towards Greenland (in the reliable). FI not so great however

Edited by January Snowstorm

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ECM follows that group of ensembles in the GEFS which sink the high SE into Europe.

Mixed results as to what follows but this isn't the 'stellar' route,

ECH1-216.GIF?20-0

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM follows that group of ensembles in the GEFS which sink the high SE into Europe.

Mixed results as to what follows but this isn't the 'stellar' route,

ECH1-216.GIF?20-0

Yes - crap run this - 0z was much better.

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM follows that group of ensembles in the GEFS which sink the high SE into Europe.

Mixed results as to what follows but this isn't the 'stellar' route,

ECH1-216.GIF?20-0

Looks much better at 240 though, if anything this could be better than the GFS as the heights around North Canada are stronger and the angle of the PV around Greeny looks to have better potential as it swings our way, with the WAA pushing further east into Greeny as it does.

IMG_3589.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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We have been hovering around zero for most of the day, Temperatures were to supposed  be nearer 4 - 5 degrees. I wonder will the slightly milder 850s come to fruition at all. I am talking about t96 onwards. For me I am not so sure, There are chops and changes as we progress towards December

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There are huge differences later in the Ecm 12z run compared to the 00z..more runs needed!:D

Much prefer what the 00z would have gone on to show with that trigger low southwest of Iceland.. The 12z ending is a bit Meh.

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp500 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - crap run this - 0z was much better.

I don't think it is, looks great to me and as good as the GFS.

look at the WAA into Greenland on ECM, the flow was too far West on GFS to give us the stellar runs, the ECM would bring it in further East.

Edited by Ali1977

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks much better at 240 though, if anything this could be better than the GFS as the heights around North Canada are stronger and the angle of the PV around Greeny looks to have better potential as it swings our way, with the WAA pushing further east into Greeny as it does.

IMG_3589.PNG

Totally agree Ali................crap run it isn't. Patience people

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Yep, very much agree with CC and damianslaw's  assessments above with HP influence being the primary driver of our weather by midweek and for several days after that. I wouldn't look much past D6 for any signs of nailed outputs as that's precisely where divergence in NWP outputs is at their greatest, so FI must broadly begin around the 26th/27th November right now. Given a bit more consistency across the 12z and 0z intra-runs, we should soon know where we are for the first few days of winter proper. Personally, I'm pleased to see the fixed pattern of HP nearby allowing things to dry up and aid further attempts at chilling the ground, given the fact I've only had one air frost thus far this autumn, despite Novembers current CET mean being 1.2c below normal at home.

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Totally agree Ali................crap run it isn't. Patience people

I agree once the high to are South East drops then the flood gates to the North tumble in.:)

Edited by booferking

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