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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Most of Ireland and Scotland remain below average every day according to that graphic. What model do they base their forecast on? ECM

The deep cold moving into mainland Europe is encouraging.

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15 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

If the GFS ens.mean verifies,the start of winter 2016 is going to be a whole different ball game compared to last year.:)

 

GFS mean..gensnh-21-1-288.png2015 1st Dec..archivesnh-2015-12-1-12-0.png

Absolute beauty. and absolute brutal cold over russia

 

gensnh-21-4-384.pnggensnh-21-0-384.png

Edited by karlos1983

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the low south of Greenland look like its trying to disrupt, will it go under ...

gfsnh-0-144.png

Nope, everything to be a bit further west on this run though. I'm not quite sure what to make of UKMO

Edited by karlos1983

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Not a lot you can say about the GFS 12z so far. Up to t204 it's followed a very similar path to the 6z. A few differences at this stage though

12z gfsnh-0-204.png?12  6Z gfsnh-0-210.png?6

12Z has slightly lower heights down to our south and East, and there's a low off the tip of Greenland that I suspect may be overcooked.

Edited by Ravelin

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6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Not a lot you can say about the GFS 12z so far. Up to t204 it's followed a very similar path to the 6z. A few differences at this stage though

12z gfsnh-0-204.png?12  6Z gfsnh-0-210.png?6

12Z has slightly lower heights down to our south and East, and there's a low off the tip of Greenland that I suspect may be overcooked.

it looks like it has a sinker HP which will end in sotherly winds lets hope its went of on one otherwise it looks like a very mild start to december

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could be a crazy Fl if that trough disrupts and goes under our high on the GFS

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2 minutes ago, igloo said:

it looks like it has a sinker HP which will end in sotherly winds lets hope its went of on one otherwise it looks like a very mild start to december

Even if it does sink, doesn't look as if it'll be that mild

gfs-1-288.png?12 gfsnh-0-288.png?12

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Ends in zonal mode...

gfsnh-0-336.png?12 gfsnh-0-360.png?12 gfsnh-0-384.png?12

OK, next up, ECM to save the day? :nonono:

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Lets hope this GFS 12z is a rogue run as it will be a nasty prelude to hopes of December cold potential. Watch how the PV develops:

0z gfsnh-0-6.png End run: gfsnh-0-360.png

Not what we want or what these "background signals" keep saying. The 06z was unlikely to be repeated as it was dependent on several outcomes that we hadn't seen modelled before, and this is at the other end of the scale; so hopefully GFS op clueless for the moment (past D10).

Edited by IDO

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This afternoon's UKMO shows things slowly settling down as the week progresses

UKMOPEU12_96_1.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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The Gfs 12z shows a very pleasant anticyclonic spell developing later next week with overnight frosts and fog patches, some dense and freezing as high pressure becomes centred over the uk..nice

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

h500slp (2).png

ukmintemp.png

h500slp (3).png

h500slp (4).png

Edited by Frosty.

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11 minutes ago, IDO said:

; so hopefully GFS op clueless for the moment (past D10).

Usually the case, despite some being keen to post day 15/16 op charts on here if they show cold!

if the anomolys late into run match the ens mean then it's  probably worth looking at. If it's off on a tangent then it's just taking up bandwidth! 

Edited by bluearmy

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What happens after the high is unclear and the op runs are just toying with different options but I don't think there should be any despondency just because we don't get a wintry ending every run, a bit of patience is required.

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The ENS aren't necessarily following the op, plenty of Northerlies by 240. Over to the ECM to show the same hopefully. Great Mean too.

IMG_3561.PNG

IMG_3562.PNG

IMG_3563.PNG

IMG_3564.PNG

IMG_3565.PNG

IMG_3567.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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With the NAO looking like its set to go into very negative territory and then back into positive territory by the first day of winter, wouldnt this tell a story about low pressure taking a bit of a grip in the atlantic somewhere abouts. 

nao.sprd2.gif

Then we have a forecasted AO driving into deeply negative territory, so not a sniff of the PV getting its act together at all for the reasonable timeframe , i don`t really see a Greenie high here, seeing as the NAO is going to probably trend positive. So allegedly its quite plausible a Scandi block could be very much present and troughs/lows been driven under, which would be plausible for a -ve NAO... Or have i missed something !! 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

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Is there a link somewhere to give me more information on the models?  I appreciate predicting the weather is exceedingly complex but what keeps being posted here on the whole appears to be erroneous. The goal posts I assume are continually being moved. 

How good are they at predicting mild instead of cold?  Seems that a lot of people posting on here (not all) are desperately trying to see something that might not be there. 

Snipper

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This is one thing I've never really understood why does HP over the uk dominantly/ or have aTendency to sink south East and hardly NW.

I understand the coriolis effect for the Northern Hemisphere and the teleconnetics till I'm blue in the face..

There's a clear example on todays's 12z past T+144hrs....

I' maybe overlooking something quite simple.....

Keeping it straight forward for everyone to understand I'd like your ideas and input from anyones level  of degree or knowledge or theories. 

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Looks like we may be stuck in mid lat limbo for a while unless we can force the pattern NW through the usual mechanisms through the mid term.

That wouldn't be too bad as far as late Autumn goes with settled weather, just a tad disappointing given the opportunities.

This limbo should be resolved end of Nov and the general theme is still to have a trough dig down from the North on the flank of an atlantic ridge, it just takes longer to get there and of course we are once again chasing FI cold.

However there are now some very cold 850's starting to show up in some runs for the first time this season and I still expect the mean 850's within GFS ensembles to fall significantly in FI, say from end of month, from where they are now.

Edited by Mucka

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17 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

With the NAO looking like its set to go into very negative territory and then back into positive territory by the first day of winter, wouldnt this tell a story about low pressure taking a bit of a grip in the atlantic somewhere abouts. 

nao.sprd2.gif

Then we have a forecasted AO driving into deeply negative territory, so not a sniff of the PV getting its act together at all for the reasonable timeframe , i don`t really see a Greenie high here, seeing as the NAO is going to probably trend positive. So allegedly its quite plausible a Scandi block could be very much present and troughs/lows been driven under, which would be plausible for a -ve NAO... Or have i missed something !! 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

Can't find any NAO/AO ens charts that take either positive to end week 2 Bryan 

not sure what run the chart you posted is from??

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

it shouldn't be any surprise that we are on course for a spell of benign anticyclonic weather and I don't think there should be any disappointment as overnight frosts and crisp bright days beat the hell out of mild swly mush any day..in my opinion!:)

I couldn't tell you which years but I'm old enough that I'm sure I remember in the past that Novembers were often cold and anti-cyclonic. Then again, I'm also old enough that my memory might be faulty. I agree, cold and calm beats wet and wild any day. It was a lovely sunny day here today for example, but cold enough for the hard overnight frost to survive in shaded spots. Also, much easier taking the dog for a walk when both of us don't come back covered in mud.

GEFS Control ends on a colder note, but yeah, t384, yada, yada

gensnh-0-1-384.png  gensnh-0-0-384.png

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12_192_arctic10.png?cb=550 12_288_arctic10.png?cb=550  12_384_arctic10.png?cb=550

Looking at this sequence of 10 hPa stratospheric temperatures, the vortex is actually under some serious attack even as the lower levels strengthen (though only a bit - most of what the 12z shows is some of the cold air finally leaving Asia and being able to intensify and spread under the polar night).

If I understand it all correctly, with any increase in lower vortex strength comes a stronger 'surf zone' to help drive wave breaking into the heart of the vortex. With the vortex looking to be situated over central-western Asia during the 8-16 day period, the potential for wave breaking is very high, hence what the 12z produces. The usual caveats apply of course, but it's encouraging to see the warming really kicking off in only about a week's time.

In terms of weather at the surface, this could have ramifications for the second half of Dec. The potential in the first half is down to a combination of the displaced and relatively weak nature of the vortex and forcing from the MJO (presuming it occurs - hence 'potential'), which is likely to cause plenty more model chaos in the week ahead.

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