Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

Looking into the future is difficult with the models. But it also looks like the here and now is also causing the models difficulties  the low for Sunday is modelled in three different ways on the hi res models  the euro4 going for a washout of a day for most of England. The arpege is going for the low to be more southerly and hardly any precipitation makes it past the south Midlands. And the arome has rain turning to snow for Wales Midlands and central northern England  place your bets 

Edited by weirpig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Looking into the future is difficult with the models. But it also looks like the here and now is also causing the models difficulties  the low for Sunday is modelled in three different ways on the hi res models  the euro4 going for a washout of a day for most of England. The arpege is going for the low to be more southerly and hardly any precipitation makes it past the south Midlands. And the arome has rain turning to snow for Wales Midlands and central northern England  place your bets 

Please tell me arome has the highest resolution :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Please tell me arome has the highest resolution :)

Yes the model which has the snow signal is always the best in terms of resolution! lol Although that  sounds like it should be a perfume rather than a weather model.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've got to admit I'm pretty happy the way the synoptics are shaping up coming into the winter with blocking patterns instead of the usual Atlantic driven westerlies and +nao.

Just going to wait for hopefully some colder uppers to begin showing in the Ensembles soon given the overall signals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes the model which has the snow signal is always the best in terms of resolution! lol Although that  sounds like it should be a perfume rather than a weather model.

Ha ha ha, nice one Nick :) On a personal level, I have had two snow events already and still only Nov! Most years here I have had to wait until second half of winter just to see a flake!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ha ha ha, nice one Nick :) On a personal level, I have had two snow events already and still only Nov! Most years here I have had to wait until second half of winter just to see a flake!

I wish I still lived in Yorkshire (originally from Bradford @175m asl). Since 1997 down in Windsor it's been a hard time! The charts are looking good for the start of December for widespread cold weather :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I wish I still lived in Yorkshire (originally from Bradford @175m asl). Since 1997 down in Windsor it's been a hard time! The charts are looking good for the start of December for widespread cold weather :)

Bradford is a fab location for snow, as you know :) My location is very low asl so a great pre season start here, better than 2009 and 2010 in fact :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Bradford is a fab location for snow, as you know :) My location is very low asl so a great pre season start here, better than 2009 and 2010 in fact :)

Once I tried driving up a hill towards Haworth Road from where we lived to see more snow rather than the wet sleet/snow. I managed to have a minor car accident just after I passed my driving test back in 1991/2!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Once I tried driving up hill from where we lived to see more snow than wet sleet/snow when I managed to have a minor car accident just after I passed my driving test back in 1991/2!

Ha ha, at least you passed your test. I was taking my tests in the same years and failed! lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Evening peeps:D

not posted in a while due to being busy all week again

I have been tracking this storm for Sunday all week and looking at the gfs in particular it did have it modeled from the 8th @ 240 hrs out but a couple of days earlier prior to what the latest(18z) is showing now @42 hrs,although not as deep as gfs tend to blow lows up and is notorious for it,the trend was good from the gfs at picking out this system

i did comment about it some time ago about this storm here

left on the 8th @240 hrs,right @ 42 hrs

gfs-0-240.pnggfs-0-42.png

there could be a few surprises come Sunday morning

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo 1.pngprectypeuktopo 2.png

after this i am looking for some nice settled cold and frosty weather of which we haven't seen for a few years at this time of the year,BRING IT ON!!!:D

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ha ha, at least you passed your test. I was taking my tests in the same years and failed! lol

Luckily my dad/uncle ran a second hand car garage in those days so I got my car fixed quickly! :)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening peeps:D

not posted in a while due to being busy all week again

I have been tracking this storm for Sunday all week and looking at the gfs in particular it did have it modeled from the 8th @ 240 hrs out but a couple of days earlier prior to what the latest(18z) is showing now @42 hrs,although not as deep as gfs tend to blow lows up and is notorious for it,the trend was good from the gfs at picking out this system

i did comment about it some time ago about this storm here

left on the 8th @240 hrs,right @ 42 hrs

gfs-0-240.pnggfs-0-42.png

there could be a few surprises come Sunday morning

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo 1.pngprectypeuktopo 2.png

after this i am looking for some nice settled cold and frosty weather of which we haven't seen for a few years at this time of the year,BRING IT ON!!!:D

Luckily my dad/uncle ran a second hand car garage in those days so I got my car fixed quickly! :)

It could get a bit marginal but if it's heavy then the level should come down in light winds hopefully for you guys. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got to say Monday's/Tuesday low does frustrate me as this was initially to be just flirting with eastern areas heading up the North Sea leaving most places with a slack cold NW'ly with what could of been quite cold uppers but now it looks like we are heading in for a washout start to next week coupled with quite strong winds which of course is seasonal giving its Autumn but I would rather have the clearer calmer conditions.

Its another low to keep an eye on though as again it could cause some disruption with the widespread strong winds and heavy rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning all.

Pretty good UKMO this morning which backs last nights ECM.

UN144-21.GIF?19-05

Of course the big question is does that Atlantic low disrupt and push any energy SE and does that trough dig down quickly enough to prevent the pattern being forced East.

It is very finely balanced but it could easily develop a cold pattern from there.

 

Here is GFS at the same time 144

gfsnh-0-144.png

More energy in the Atlantic and less phasing with the trough to our East which is not really what we want if we want the pattern backed West and not forced East.

It does disrupt just a little energy S/SE against the block but nearly all of it goes N/NW which means the pattern is forced East with the cold Northerly plunge heading into Scandinavia.

gfsnh-0-174.pnggfsnh-0-192.png

The issue here is that it leaves the gate open, S tip of Greenland, for the Atlantic to roll over the top as I have stated previously.

gfsnh-0-222.png

 

I'm not saying this is a disastrous pattern by any means but it means waiting for another bite at the cherry which may duly arrive but if things go right between 120 and 168 we could be locked into a cold pattern quite quickly with heights into Greenland and strong Atlantic ridge and cold N/NE flow. I will wait to see if any GFS ensembles come up with such a scenario and post them if they do, I expect at least 1 or 2 too.

Could be an eye popping ECM this morning by 192. (hope that hasn't cursed it)

 

 

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few GEFS showing winter kicking in by late next weekend 

IMG_3553.PNG

IMG_3554.PNG

IMG_3555.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like I put the mockers on ECM.

It's actually very similar to last nights run, just a little worse instead of a little better in the important phases of energy distribution.

Good model agreement overall for high pressure centered somewhere just N of the UK around day 8 which wouldn't be bad at all, just that there is scope for it to be so much better with relatively small upstream tweaks through to day 7.

The optimist in me says that if there are any further corrections to the position of the high they will be to take it further NW overall, whether that is far enough West to allow the cold plunge currently designated for Scandinavia to affect us we can but hope.

Otherwise plenty of options going forward and sooner or later our luck will change.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Net/W SR Models shows some strong gales as the Low swings past the South coast tomorrow, Especially the S/E where things could get rather stormy with gusts touching 65/70mph and the possibility of some snow on the leading edge N/Midlands/Pennines with alt.

a.pngb.pngc.png

With temps also into low single digits it will certainly feel raw in the wind.

  a.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This recurring theme of a UK high seems endless this Autumn and still waiting for the weather to get reset as until that happens, based on the last 2-3 months I don't see the potential yet for a cold spell over the UK (other than brief cold fronts passing through). 

The pattern has failed to provide any HLB and going forward the GEFS are still reluctant to go that way. So instead we have to rely on the patches of HP in the mid-latitudes giving short sharp shocks of cold on their flanks as they trundle around the NH. The one due D8-10 is too far east for the UK and the pattern repeats again as the Azores ridges into a transient UK HP around D14 and the cold uppers again dissipate on our eastward flank, but another miss.

gfs-1-240.pnggfs-1-384.png

Again they do not resemble a block and at D16 on the GEFS there is no sign of any blocked pattern setting in. Yes there are ML HP systems but they are meandering around an overall mobile setup. Neither the PV or the forcing at the moment is winning, so a continuation of the current lengthy pattern seems likely as we enter into early December. Whether we can get one of those transient cold plunges is arguable but as the trigger (Azores) is reluctant to retrogress once over the UK, we will need a lot of luck.

All by the way, just the starter for the Dec/Jan ML cold where I suspect this pattern will have been replaced to hopefully  something a lit bit more UK centric for that cold flooding south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS 00z mean shows high pressure gradually taking over from day 6, initially across the NW but then more widely as the high becomes centred over the north of the uk  before slowly sinking south with largely fine conditions pretty much nationwide with variable clouds and sunny spells, increasingly frosty nights & fog, some of it freezing becoming more of a problem where skies clear and the frosty nights would lower the soil temps and the days would be crisp..very nice:D

21_144_500mb.png

21_168_500mb.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I woke hoping for a better day of model watching but the 0z's have not delivered.

The gfs seems to have a love affair with a west based -NAO and also looks a bit worrying stratospherically in FI with the Siberian vortex starting to move back towards the Arctic. Let's hope that this doesn't show in subsequent runs.

The ECM is less promising than yesterday with a cold shot further east and looking at the 240 hours chart is not hard to see the danger of a west based -NAO.

 

edit: not strictly model related, but I thought to finish on a positive note, the sunspot cycle is at the lowest level in 5 years with the sunspot number progression lower than forecasted so at least the sun is on our side. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited by karyo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm so no real sign of yet of definitive pattern beyond the initial building of heights near to the UK, the models still toying with moving the high around, retrogrades, shifting it east, sinking it. I still don't think we are near a problem answer just yet.

ECM ens

EDM1-144.GIF?19-12   EDM1-192.GIF?19-12   EDM1-240.GIF?19-12

This suggests the plunge of cold air at around day 7 will miss the UK and hit eastern Europe, but the day 10 ens mean is intriguing with that low over Iceland, you can see this dropping much closer to the UK than the previous attempt shown at day 8. 

Don't let frustration kick in, we should get there eventually. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hmm so no real sign of yet of definitive pattern beyond the initial building of heights near to the UK, the models still toying with moving the high around, retrogrades, shifting it east, sinking it. I still don't think we are near a problem answer just yet.

ECM ens

EDM1-144.GIF?19-12   EDM1-192.GIF?19-12   EDM1-240.GIF?19-12

This suggests the plunge of cold air at around day 7 will miss the UK and hit eastern Europe, but the day 10 ens mean is intriguing with that low over Iceland, you can see this dropping much closer to the UK than the previous attempt shown at day 8. 

Don't let frustration kick in, we should get there eventually. :)

The last chart looks like the beginning of west based -NAO to me. The nova scotia low is about to join the Icelandic low and the Greenland high is pointing towards Canada which is the wrong orientation for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...