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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Quite an interesting ECM this evening.

The amplification expected for some days gets under way from T96 and from here we see the fluid evolution within this pattern swing into action. Energy continues to be emitted from Canada and from the eastern seaboard where the emerging upper low has dragged down some very cold air from Canada.The result of this two pronged attack swings the Atlantic HP/trough combo clockwise arriving at this position at T168. The situation is neatly poised as they say.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_8.png

From here the trough to the north keeps tracking east and phases in with the cold trough to the east and the whole caboodle swings south whilst the trough from the Southern States phases in with our trough to the south west and the whole lot link up with Britain sitting in the middle under the high cell Essentially what this boils down to is a swing from WAA in the eastern Atlantic to a surge of CAA to the east as all of these machinations fall into place. As I said, neatly poised

ecm_t850_anom_natl_11.png

Edited by knocker
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The ECM is such a tease. It has that deep cold to the ne and you desperately want to know what happens at T268hrs!

I think it looks a bit close but no cigar because of the orientation of the blocking and the main positive heights are too far south so getting that cold into the UK is going to be difficult. However its a work in progress and better than the GFS.

We'll see later with the ECM ensembles how many members do bring in some deeper cold.

 

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Evening All! Great signs from the ops models tonight both ecm and gfs   show an evolution to deep cold by the end of the month at day ten, yes its a long way off but certainly worth keeping youre eyes on given the current global drivers influencing our weather/ Between time , cold and unsettled , drier and with a cold east wind , of course subject to change , but are the pieces in the puzzle at last coming together?

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I mentioned yesterday landing point for the HP for me was centred northern Scotland.  Yesterday/ day before the ECM at t144 for me was wrong and had HP too far south.  Looking better today.  All still in the right ball park as we go forward

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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The eps aren't as impressive as the 00z run with the sceuro troughing not as deep as earlier. Be interesting to see if the London ens reflect with less cold clustering later. 

 

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Well Friday afternoons are always crazy for me and I miss all the runs and play catch up in the evening. Today is one of those days that I'm greatful I missed them and could skip through to the ECM

Potential is an understatement, cold to our east and that high sitting over can go anywhere apart from sink! 

Happy days, always good when the ECM is the best run of the day. Now eagerly awaiting the ensembles.

 

 

IMG_3698.PNG

IMG_3699.PNG

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I think there is an over emphasis on the details of each run and we all know at that range, its kind of pointless looking at the details. I find the outlook a bit encouraging and always think its better we don't see the stonking charts at 216-240 hours as it always raises hype and people expect it should remain the same right down to zero hours.

I still don't see much sign of a Greenland high developing on todays runs but we do see a trough dropping down into Scandi with high pressure near or over us. Question will be, will this retrogress far enough NW'wards for us to tap into that cold, we shall see but I rather get some pieces into the jigsaw in rather than the models right away saying its complete otherwise it does tend up with dissapointment.

I think next weeks easterly would'nt be a cold one anyways due to it being more of ESE'ly type rather than a ENE'ly but obviously the large Russian high would'nt of helped matters, for those hoping this high would produce cold/frosty weather, I think they will be dissapointed because the high does not fully ridge into the UK and with warm uppers over the seas, it will generate alot of cloud plus with mild uppers, night minimums could be quite slow to fall, small details could change this though.

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A quick look at this evening's anomalies.

NOAA and the ecm very much on the same page in the 6-10 range.

Atlantic HP ridging NE over the north of the UK, may even lead to an enclosed high cell, with the upper low to the SSW. A trough south o Greenland and a continuation of positive anomalies over northern Canada. The det runs, with detailed variations of course much, have pretty much produced evolution's within this framework. We are looking at a surface analysis of a general area of low pressure to the south and HP to the north leading to an easterly wind comp and some drier weather particularly in the north.Temps will vary a fair amount, particularly diurnally, but in general slightly above average. This may well depend on the precise orientation of the HP/LP areas, particularly longitudinally as to which is more influential

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

In the ext period there is no great agreement although they are in the same ball park. They both have the Atlantic HP retrogressing and weakening (well more or less) and keep the strong anomalies N. Canada  and low pressure to the southern quadrant of the UK without any significant signal for a Scandinavian trough. I'm inclined to put this in the pending file.

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8 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...but a marked disjunction between the operational model versus new version, which nose-dives T850 det/CTRL into end of month. Net result, as before with both parallel models, remains a leaning towards below avg temps overall (albeit growing spread continues to afford low confidence on temperature by early Dec, which has been a recurrent theme). The favoured outcome, broadly, remains a more changeable phase early Dec, followed by signs of heights retrogressing to our NW (as keenly signalled towards/into mid-Dec in latest ECMWF monthly and prior to that period, in far reaches of EC 12z ENS) and blocked leanings then characterising that period. The issue remains exactly how/when/where respective block(s) manifest and resultant outcome for the UK. Despite some similar themes in GloSea and EC suites (including their seasonal output too), it's just too early to offer any confidence whatsoever, not least as stratospheric matters have yet to show *complete and unequivocal* outcome across the main models... quite yet.

Wow thanks Ian.

its hard to to take any negatives from that update. When where how blocks manifest.im happy to see that evolve.

presuming little sign of a mobile Atlantic pattern?

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wow thanks Ian.

its hard to to take any negatives from that update. When where how blocks manifest.im happy to see that evolve.

presuming little sign of a mobile Atlantic pattern?

I agree , its quite positive if cold is your thing........................maybe its all heading for a white Xmas

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36 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well Friday afternoons are always crazy for me and I miss all the runs and play catch up in the evening. Today is one of those days that I'm greatful I missed them and could skip through to the ECM

Potential is an understatement, cold to our east and that high sitting over can go anywhere apart from sink! 

Happy days, always good when the ECM is the best run of the day. Now eagerly awaiting the ensembles.

 

 

IMG_3698.PNG

IMG_3699.PNG

 
 

ENS

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Cyclonicity yes (with W'rly flow bias) in ensembles, but true mobility as per last year's choo-choo train, no. But as per a previous post I made, at the present time we need caution re assuming *all* winter will see a similar paucity of that signal.

Ian I see you mention a new version of the ECM, do you know when this will be officially replacing the current one?. And just one more question you mention the new one shows a large drop in 850s on both that new det/control towards the end of the month. Do you have the synoptics for that? does that develop a Scandi trough and block to the nw? Thanks.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

As far as I know it's 12z Tuesday.

Great, thanks Knocker.

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Ian I see you mention a new version of the ECM, do you know when this will be officially replacing the current one?. And just one more question you mention the new one shows a large drop in 850s on both that new det/control towards the end of the month. Do you have the synoptics for that? does that develop a Scandi trough and block to the nw? Thanks.

Nick - the new ecm op and ens go live next Tuesday.

whilst the 46 day para has been visible behind a paywall, have not been able to see the 15 day ens para so no opinion as to how much different it has looked to the standard ens.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Nick - the new ecm op and ens go live next Tuesday.

whilst the 46 day para has been visible behind a paywall, have not been able to see the 15 day ens para so no opinion as to how much different it has looked to the standard ens.

So they're upgrading the ensembles aswell, even better news. Given Ians comments it would have been great to see those new ensembles.

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11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Cyclonicity yes (with W'rly flow bias) in ensembles, but true mobility as per last year's choo-choo train, no. But as per a previous post I made, at the present time we need caution re assuming *all* winter will see a similar paucity of that signal. 

Understand that, but it's probably fair to say, a mobile pattern akin to last winter is hard to see through December. Trop and strat PV in far than impressive state, with little sign of forming in normal winter fashion, certainly with any of the modelling we have available. Anything after that is surely with low to medium confidence at best. 

 

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7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

What is emerging by around 27-28th is the fine balance between an anticyclonic bias across the UK (with varying degrees of continental influence versus a more W'ly one); or conversely a +ve MSLP to NW and troughing to E, with resultant directly colder N'ly influence. This sort of umm-ahh bimodality has characterised recent extended range and doubtless will for a while. Hence unclear temp signal for us further ahead.

Thanks Ian, I'll take  the positive MSLP to the NW and troughing to the East!

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