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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Not impressed with the GEFS mean late in the run.

 

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8 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Too busy to post charts, but l think the GFS ensemble mean still indicates blocking to the NW

It doesn't look as good to me as previously.

 

21_360_500mb.png

21_384_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just like to apologise for my comment, it was worded badly, I take cold uppers as uppers likely to produce heavy convective snowfall, ie - at this time of year -8c to -10c, but I would imagine the average for Nov is around -2c. so anything -5c is classed as cold.

it depends on the set up 

I would have thought that early December under low mslp and lowish heights that uppers below -4c will suffice depending on the flow. In fact, if we are already surface cold then sub zero will suffice with a weak continental flow ahead of slider type scenarios. This doesn't look to me like a screaming nor'easter which require uppers of -8c to initiate streamers off the North Sea (at least not the first week of December and beyond that the mean upper anomoly is likely skewed by the spread )

agree re the gefs mean - heading the wrong way as much as the 00z were heading the right way  for coldies! (Still a few decent members but the mean not consolidating to cold)

Edited by bluearmy

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37 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Orange is my favourite colour.

image.jpg

GFS continuing to show strat warming in FI

384 hrs yet again 

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Just now, Johnp said:

384 hrs yet again 

This is Day 7

gfsnh-10-192.png?12

Day 10

gfsnh-10-240.png?12

Its continuing to grow so the D16 chart is a lot more impressive. 

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20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It doesn't look as good to me as previously.

 

21_360_500mb.png

21_384_500mb.png

gens-21-5-288.png.            gens-21-5-384.png.        Blocking signal remaining right out until day 14, where yes I agree the signal clearly starts to fade. Something to watch I think, but nowhere near as disappointing as the operational

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2 minutes ago, Zakos said:

gens-21-5-288.png.            gens-21-5-384.png.        Blocking signal remaining right out until day 14, where yes I agree the signal clearly starts to fade. Something to watch I think, but nowhere near as disappointing as the operational

Agreed, the Gfs 12z op was disappointing compared to yesterday but we now wipe the slate clean and see what the next run shows.

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ECM looks great at 192, WAA into Greenland at Northerly lining up. Will it head our way !!

IMG_3549.PNG

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ECM slower than GFS with better separation of Atlantic low and shortwave SW of Greenland at 144 with the shortwave ejected East

ECH1-144.GIF?18-0gfsnh-0-144.png

Allows more Westward phasing with developing Russian trough

ECH1-168.GIFgfsnh-0-168.png

Result, the forcing from the trough squeezes high pressure, not allowing it to be forced E and SE as with GFS and possibly allowing the Atlantic in

ECH1-192.GIF?18-0gfsnh-0-192.png

A very close run thing with that Atlantic low undercutting or forcing the pattern East

Edit.

LOL so close. a smidge of undercut between frames and we would of been plunged into a cold NE flow with the high at a little higher latitude and slightly further West.

ECH1-216.GIF?18-0

Edited by Mucka

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I would take the ECM 216 all day, at last some frigid air been blasted into the continent, I'm hoping this is what the MO have in mind when they say drier weather in their longer range updated, as it wouldn't take much from there to get the cold here.

ECH1-216_lpe7.GIF

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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If these charts came to fruition I imagine by Tue it would be game on and the UK would be seeing the first -8c uppers of the season - hopefully backed up by the ENS later.

IMG_3550.PNG

IMG_3551.PNG

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would take the ECM 216 all day, at last some frigid air been blasted into the continent, I'm hoping this is what the MO have in mind when they say drier weather in their longer range updated, as it wouldn't take much from there to get the cold here.

Agreed, there's no point having an Easterly unless there is cold air to tap into, eastern Europe needs an Arctic plunge for that to happen.

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Still 12 days of autumn left after today, a few so so op runs is no cause for concern.

Just as well ECM is the form horse mate

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM...cold+dry....:cold::)

#verynicerun....Highpressure..in..charge....

Ay in FI, but I was thinking opposite, Sunday and Monday look washed out, flooding issues likely, moves through in day too, and dry nights at least in north Midlands

ECH1-72.GIF

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would take the ECM 216 all day, at last some frigid air been blasted into the continent, I'm hoping this is what the MO have in mind when they say drier weather in their longer range updated, as it wouldn't take much from there to get the cold here.

Just needed that undercut through 168-216 but the real development is much earlier all about how well energy is separated between the Atlantic low and shortwave energy around SW Greenland 120 through 168.

It's obviously a close run thing and two hurdles to overcome for quicker route to cold but I'm not saying all is lost if we get a more GFS type solution through the mid range, there are other options it's just why stack a straight in the hope of being dealt a flush?

 

JMA has the the low and shortwave phase in the Atlantic which results in this.

JN192-21.GIF?18-12

I don't think anyone can forecast what will happen 10 days out with so many options.

Edited by Mucka

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ECM 240h and cold is flooding into Europe. Very tasty.

ECM0-240.gif

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Just needed that undercut through 168-216 but the real development is much earlier all about how well energy is separated between the Atlantic low and shortwave energy around SW Greenland 120 through 168.

It's obviously a close run thing and two hurdles to overcome for quicker route to cold but I'm not saying all is lost if we get a more GFS type solution through the mid range, there are other options it's just why stack a straight in the hope of being dealt a flush?

Unlikely anything will deliver anything frigid within day 10, if we got the Easterly down the line afterwards that would be a Royal Flush!!!!     

 

EDIT : had to look up what a straight was, its been donkeys years since I played poker, didn't know whether it was a running flush or just a run.  

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Historically, it's a good sign of what you're looking for is a split of low heights/jet stream winds where GFS failed to produce it.

Lets hope this time around falls into the 'typical' bin where GFS is the one making amendments and the split manifests. Without that, we're lacking in established continental cold to make any Atlantic intrusions interesting.

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM...cold+dry....:cold::)

#verynicerun....Highpressure..in..charge....

 

The trend is our friend. This is the most likely outcome now, to my mind.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Unlikely anything will deliver anything frigid within day 10, if we got the Easterly down the line afterwards that would be a Royal Flush!!!!       

Yes definitely unlikely but if ECM is on the right track those odds are set to tumble.

At least there is plenty going on and lot's of different options open down the line. That hasn't been the case in recent years.

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I would take the Ecm 12z if it was offered to me, strong potential for an increasingly cold extended outlook with very cold air gathering to the north, north east & east :cold:

216_mslp850.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_thick.png

Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, Mucka said:

ECM slower than GFS with better separation of Atlantic low and shortwave SW of Greenland at 144 with the shortwave ejected East

ECH1-144.GIF?18-0gfsnh-0-144.png

Allows more Westward phasing with developing Russian trough

ECH1-168.GIFgfsnh-0-168.png

Result, the forcing from the trough squeezes high pressure, not allowing it to be forced E and SE as with GFS and possibly allowing the Atlantic in

ECH1-192.GIF?18-0gfsnh-0-192.png

A very close run thing with that Atlantic low undercutting or forcing the pattern East

Edit.

LOL so close. a smidge of undercut between frames and we would of been plunged into a cold NE flow with the high at a little higher latitude and slightly further West.

ECH1-216.GIF?18-0

 For me there's only one outcome.The lobe leaving sw Greenland to undercut and join the plunge coming down Scandanavia which should back w, sw with the high getting squeezed w, nw.

Edited by joggs

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I found some happy endings on the GEFS 12z with some real zingers and a few ever so close shaves to wintry nirvana!:cold:

Coldies we are very much in the game!.. P11 where's Teits:yahoo:

4_336_850tmp.png

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5_384_850tmp.png

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10_384_850tmp.png

10_384_2mtmpmax.png

11_384_850tmp.png

11_384_2mtmpmax.png

12_360_850tmp.png

14_360_850tmp.png

16_384_850tmp.png

16_384_2mtmpmax.png

19_384_850tmp.png

Edited by Frosty.

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