Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[gottolovethisweather]

35 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

Good feeling about the coming winter. I think the models will be more "on topic" and we won't have to post all those golden oldies. I sense the models are toying with a Scandinavian high. GFS keeps pressure relatively high there throughout its run. It could nudge back in or we could have a full on incursion. Pre Christmas easterlies have been a rarity and can be wasted because of the warm North Sea. But no harm in hoping.

We are due one and I don't buy the fifty heads argument. The next one is always going to be tails for me. Btw did you notice the rosy glow in the cumulus tops at sunset. There's ice in them clouds.

 

 

 

Like you, I have the same feeling about November rather than Winter as a whole, easier to predict I guess. Whether these early Easterlies should be called a waste of space or not, I welcome them over the usual Southwesterly onslaught. By tomorrow morning, and throughout the weekend they (Northerly/Northeasterly winds) are bringing wintriness with them and raw feeling Temperatures to the Eastern counties in particular. I do feel the predominance of Northerly and Easterly based winds will continue to be a feature during November as they were throughout October. Hence my predictions of a special November upcoming. Granted, we get milder outputs showing their hand from time to time as we should do but come next week, the weekend wobbles in the outputs will restore back to colder scenarios mid-term once again. Bring it on, I say.

Edited November 5, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z starts cold but then becomes milder at times and ends mild. There are spells of wind and rain separated by drier brighter intervals and the worst of the weather is further north, furthest away from the area of high pressure to the southwest of the uk. T+240 has a positive NAO look about it.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[Scandinavian High.]

November 5.  Where I live south east London feels very wintery out there I  have seen  two frosts this autumn last winter I did not see one. Looking very good as we approach winter gfs looks cold and wintery at times 

[SMU]

Ha ha you could not make it up

 

all 3 models have easterly flow @ 144 !

S

 

[Summer Sun]

Easterly winds back at t144 on ECM

[Mucka]

ECM may have gone off on one but JMA looking great at 192

[bluearmy]

ECM would be working its way to a beasterly day 11/12 if the jet sends enough oomph se into Europe at day 9 (which it didn't). 

certainly seeing the Atlantic running out of steam on the modelling before it had actually got anywhere 

Edited November 5, 2016 by bluearmy

[swfc]

huge change on the ecm 12z from this morning looking at the nhp? 144 hrs looks to be beyond fi tbh!! from a push towards greenland to a scandi high.hmmm

[karlos1983]

Just look how cold the 850's aren't (predicted) across all of Canada, incredible !!

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows pressure rising nicely towards the end of the run and still with rather cold surface conditions with overnight frosts with the exception of the far northwest which looks a little milder. It's nothing like the amplified 00z and the run ends milder but the week ahead would be rather chilly, especially in the east with sunshine and a few showers with overnight frosts.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[Zakos]

41 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ha ha you could not make it up

 

all 3 models have easterly flow @ 144 !

S

 

Unbelievable, what a turn around in just 12 hours!

GFS

 

ECM

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Unbelievable, what a turn around in just 12 hours!

GFS

 

ECM

 

 

And last but not least!!!!

UKMO

  

[bobbydog]

Well i ran the animation of the ECM on Meteociele to watch the evolution. There isn't really one at all. It's like a series of random images. If that's how it plays out then we are in for some fun! No entrenched vortex, no zonal atlantic domination.

If it continues like this then winter will be like a game of Russian roulette. Sooner or later.... BOOM!

[Frosty.]

I don't see anything to get excited about from the latest models, it's rather chilly but with a milder trend later. 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I don't see anything to get excited about from the latest models, it's rather chilly but with a milder trend later. 

Eh  have I missed something Karl, or has Sidney stolen your laptop  

 

[Frosty.]

Just now, gottolovethisweather said:

Will the real Frosty please stand up, please stand up! 

No I'm serious, the Ecm 00z had a wow factor later in the run with its screaming northerly  but that's been drop kicked and the Gem  becomes mild, and the Ecm trends milder later.   

[northwestsnow]

The only thing we can say with any confidence is the models are in a state of chaos!!

I wouldn't like to make a call of where we will be in a weeks time, although there does seem to be a trend to delay the Atlantic as we move through next week..:)

[bobbydog]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No I'm serious, the Ecm 00z had a wow factor later in the run with its screaming northerly  but that's been drop kicked and the Gem  becomes mild, and the Ecm trends milder later.   

Karl, take a breath mate. The ECM tells the story of a disrupted trop and strat vortex. The GFS was a gnats whisker from a snowy easterly. Glosea5 etc are saying negative AO and persistent blocking. Eurasian snow cover is great. Relatively few of the classic winters of the past had "screaming northerlies" in November. It's all good so far. So...

Calm down dear!

[Zakos]

We are still early in the season. Im not entirely sure, but I believe the showers flowing across the UK today would have fallen as snow , even to low levels, in December.

If northern blocking is going to remain in charge, we are going to have a much larger and more potent cold pool to tap into soon

Images above show the effects on the Hemisphere of just 16 days of cooling. 

Taking November as the first month we usually consider low-level snowfall to be a possibility in the UK, I think we have entered the season on a fantastic note.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Zakos

[Man With Beard]

Story of the night, surely, is not necessarily the cold, but of yet another Atlantic fail. But in mid-November! It doesn't usually fail at this time of the year once it's had a go! 

Is this a sign of things to come? 

[Frosty.]

49 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Karl, take a breath mate. The ECM tells the story of a disrupted trop and strat vortex. The GFS was a gnats whisker from a snowy easterly. Glosea5 etc are saying negative AO and persistent blocking. Eurasian snow cover is great. 

 

I agree with what you say, the bigger picture is poles apart from last year at this time and the last I heard, GloSea5 still sounds encouraging for coldies later in Nov into december but I was just reporting on the latest operational output which trended flatter and milder in particular the Gem 12z which had a positive NAO look about it with strengthening Azores high and icelandic lows..it just went  a bit flat / meh later.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[Zakos]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Story of the night, surely, is not necessarily the cold, but of yet another Atlantic fail. But in mid-November! It doesn't usually fail at this time of the year once it's had a go! 

Is this a sign of things to come? 

I hope so!

Looking at the jet stream currently, it is incredibly timid for the time of year.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Zakos

[Singularity]

 

It's funny really; ECM has been so keen to disrupt troughs at all costs in recent times (and it turns out was right with the overall idea, just too early with the timing), yet having produced a setup that looks ripe for one, it decides to power the jet to the NE.

We've already seen what surprises a roughly 1024 mb Scandi High can bring so I'm hesitant to expect a 1040-44 mb high to be overrun like that.

Not that it's given up as of +240 on the ECM; there's enough of a 'nose' being pointed poleward via Svalbard to cause the vortex further nuisance and promote a vacation southward for it's European effort.

This really is starting to be a lot of fun again - and there's so much uncertainty that I can hardly give anything away by discussing the potential outcomes 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

It's funny really; ECM has been so keen to disrupt troughs at all costs in recent times (and it turns out was right with the overall idea, just too early with the timing), yet having produced a setup that looks ripe for one, it decides to power the jet to the NE.

We've already seen what surprises a roughly 1024 mb Scandi High can bring so I'm hesitant to expect a 1040-44 mb high to be overrun like that.

Not that it's given up as of +240 on the ECM; there's enough of a 'nose' being pointed poleward via Svalbard to cause the vortex further nuisance and promote a vacation southward for it's European effort.

This really is starting to be a lot of fun again - and there's so much uncertainty that I can hardly give anything away by discussing the potential outcomes 

 

I'm not so sure. These height rises out to our E/NE are often red herrings. They also would not (in the mid term) fit with the notion of a trop vortex transporting across to the Siberian side of the hemisphere. I can't help but think that or the time being we may have to suck it up and put up with an abundance of more mid latitude type blocking with the Azores high loitering with intent close to our W/SW in preparation for a more favourable upstream pattern. What I'm seeing in the output at the moment is attempted ridging N in the Atlantic before a flattening of the pattern once again.

What I will say however is that it is a good sign the tendency is there for these blocking features to want to try to take up residency further N than what could usually be anticipated at this time of year. Makes me think it's only a matter of time until it all clicks...perhaps. 

[Ali1977]

Anyone got the timetable for the paywall models such as GLOSEA and EC monthly etc? The mid to end Nov period hinted at a colder spell with these models, I'm hoping this is still the case and signals aren't fading. Personally I think today's models were v good, the longer that PV stays subdued the better chance we have of a decent cold spell or two.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Ali1977