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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Here we are then a. new thread to continue with model output discussions.

 

 

At 10 days models are about 40% right, so it safe to say that what the day 10 chart gives you won't be the weather you'll be getting . After 10 days the predictions get even worse off course, much worse....

Edited by phil nw.
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8 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

At 10 days models are about 40% right, so it safe to say that what the day 10 chart gives you won't be the weather you'll be getting . After 10 days the predictions get even worse off course, much worse....

Yes agree if talking about the operational/deterministic charts but those are ensemble means and look in pretty good agreement re.the 500hPa pattern going forward.Notice too the ens.members on the temperature graph- a lot are close to the average. 

Edited by phil nw.
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I've been following the 9 monthly 0z CFS run religiously since the beginning of October and so far it has been reasonably accurate predicting the blocking theme until around week 2 of November and then somewhat of an Atlantic theme for the rest of November with some Mid-level blocking at times for December, unfortunately blocking was a continuing theme for a period even into January with some good chances of easterlies late Dec/into Jan but now seems to have picked up a signal of more zonal conditions through winter. We shall see...

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8

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Edited by weirpig

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The GEFS 6z mean shows our incoming colder spell giving way to more of a milder atlantic regime from around next midweek onwards and its then all about the ebb and flow of the Azores high and low pressure to the northwest / north. The Azores ridge builds in at times but it's mainly beneficial to the south of the uk, so some fine pleasant conditions further south although still changeable but it's the north which is more exposed to the most unsettled conditions generally. From mid month there is a shift to more widespread unsettled weather from the northwest with an atlantic ridge developing so the second half of November shows potential for increasing polar / arctic maritime incursions. 

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Edited by Frosty.
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Current extended ens are asking the question whether we will actually get a negative AO number for November ??

needs to go back blocked in the arctic for the last week to get there and if it could be a fairly muted negative even if it does. Just shows how quickly things can change which does promote the idea that we could still get a decent outcome on this measure 

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I've just been reading a new paper posted by @Gray-Wolf in the Arctic thread.

What we have been seeing in the modelling is exactly as in the research and probably not unexpected given the lowest ice on record by a fair bit. In itself, a false signal for winter but what about the feedbacks created?

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/74403-arctic-ice-how-does-it-influence-our-weather/?do=findComment&comment=3468980

 

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2 hours ago, phil nw. said:

Here we are then a. new thread to continue with model output discussions.

 
3
 
 

If the inevitable breakdown comes mid-week as hinted at by the overnight runs. Judging by your GEFS spreads, the forthcoming spell of below average Temperatures are nailed on to stay with us through D2 (6th November) to broadly speaking D6 (10th November). During this timeframe, we will see quite a few places getting an early dose of wintry precipitation (moreover rain at lower levels down near my neck of the woods). I imagine this is just the first batch of polar interludes with several more to come. So in all, not a bad first ten days of November with the CET mean held at suppressed levels when compared to the norm. Whilst I've not got a lot of time to check over the outputs, I will follow your wise summaries as ever Phil and also those of several others on here who've been around since the inception of netweather. I'm pretty sure this afternoon's ECM and UKMO will differ quite markedly to those overnight runs as well, with the mild/cold battle ensuing that bit longer, perhaps?

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Theres been a bit of flip and flopping in the models to say the least, not alot has changed broadly speaking but the differences for our neck of the woods is massive. I would wait until tomorrow morning to be certain the westerlies are returning because the models are still hinting at the battleground set up occuring and whilst some sort of blocking is there, you can't rule anything out.

I think in general westerlies are the most likely to occur which I would not mind really, its only November and Atlantic based weather has most certainly been lacking this Autumn.

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1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

Will be very informative Nick where we go once two current factors mature out.

This goes against any Zingers previously?

Edited by Polar Maritime
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3 minutes ago, Aljoca said:

Not model related but is there anything that can be done to stop the 'scrolling' issue that appears to have arisen, its very annoying !

 

There's a man that can...Paul...:)

 

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21 minutes ago, vase1234 said:
1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

 

 

 

To be honest gp I am getting lost in translation or I'm failing to understand what consequences this may have. any chance of a round up of what you expect in the next 6 weeks ish?? 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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OK back to the Models please, I don't see any issues scrolling myself.. But please Pm a team member with any issues instead of cluttering the thread up, Thanks.

And please only use this thread for 'current' model output as there is a Winter Thoughts/hopes thread open.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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I just checked the Gem 00z and its very similar to the Ecm 00z & Gfs 6z in the 9/10 day range with high pressure building in from the southwest across southern uk bringing fine and pleasantly mild conditions.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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50 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Theres been a bit of flip and flopping in the models to say the least, not alot has changed broadly speaking but the differences for our neck of the woods is massive. I would wait until tomorrow morning to be certain the westerlies are returning because the models are still hinting at the battleground set up occuring and whilst some sort of blocking is there, you can't rule anything out.

I think in general westerlies are the most likely to occur which I would not mind really, its only November and Atlantic based weather has most certainly been lacking this Autumn.

I agree, I think the models will firm up on a general westerly pattern moving forward. Although I do not share your enthusiasm to Atlantic based weather = Higher chance of Rain, wind and possible flooding. No thanks.

Edited by Ben Lewis
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23 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

OK back to the Models please, I don't see any issues scrolling myself.. But please Pm a team member with any issues instead of cluttering the thread up, Thanks.

And please only use this thread for 'current' model output as there is a Winter Thoughts/hopes thread open.

Paul said to me the issue is with tweets and can be got around by not embedding, just use link only option.

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9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Time to own up!

My suggestion that the models were not showing any real signal for a less cold, possibly more mobile flow, look not too clever today.

The anomaly charts have changed but not by a large amount, ECMWF-GFS is not unusually less steady than NOAA, and this has been the case this past week. All 3, in spite of their differences had ridging and +ve heights generally as the main effect on our weather. Below are the latest outputs. So once again jh with egg on face. Still trying to work out why the pattern, or rather the prediction on the upper air pattern has altered the amount it has over 48 hours-not got an answer to that yet.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Looking back to about a week ago on the NOAA outputs and what is predicted to change is the position of the +ve area, the red dashed lines. A week ago its centre was just se of Greenland, now it is much close WSW of the UK. Again I am unsure of why this shift has occurred. Granted the usual movement is west to east but the wavelength (a week ago) did not suggest that much eastward movement to me. Looking at the last evening from NOAA and the trough to trough wavelength is still too much to suggest such a change. Ah well me age folks, I must be losing it.

 

I'm just wondering John whether it has anything to do with that Tropical feature in the Atlantic that heads straight for Greenland? Being modeled differently compared to a few days ago.

 

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1 hour ago, gottolovethisweather said:

If the inevitable breakdown comes mid-week as hinted at by the overnight runs. Judging by your GEFS spreads, the forthcoming spell of below average Temperatures are nailed on to stay with us through D2 (6th November) to broadly speaking D6 (10th November). During this timeframe, we will see quite a few places getting an early dose of wintry precipitation (moreover rain at lower levels down near my neck of the woods). I imagine this is just the first batch of polar interludes with several more to come. So in all, not a bad first ten days of November with the CET mean held at suppressed levels when compared to the norm. Whilst I've not got a lot of time to check over the outputs, I will follow your wise summaries as ever Phil and also those of several others on here who've been around since the inception of netweather. I'm pretty sure this afternoon's ECM and UKMO will differ quite markedly to those overnight runs as well, with the mild/cold battle ensuing that bit longer, perhaps?

Yes a fair summing up of the next 10 days or so gltw=cold for a few days then moving towards average.

Of course mean charts do smooth out any day to day ridging so we can't exclude colder north westerly incursions from the rear of passing lows.Overall though a move to a more changeable Atlantic pattern but nothing out of the ordinary.

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