Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z actually turns into a decent run through low res with a northerly followed by an Easterly..and there is even some snow. Not bad.

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS now desperately trying to redeem itself well into FI. Its trend is somewhat similar to the ECM with troughing digging far south into the Atlantic.

 

18z is a generally sad story with a kind of a happy ending ... until you one checks out the temperature profiles.

Oh well, the daily grind to find snow continues, though appreciate winter's come early in the north.

[Smiler1709]

11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And yet again the yanks get the cold  seriously chilly weather 

I'd happily take uppers of -4 to -8 compared to last years rubbish, plus the deep cold is actually stored up for Canada. All pointless though as that chart will change by the next run 

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The strat charts are really crap at the end of the runs lately as well, this is really turning into a nightmare.

Nightmare. You're exaggerating.

[Gael_Force]

Well, the new ECM32 run does not have much promise of anything other than high pressure over/near the UK. That's just going by the precip anomalies. Troughing in Europe looks likely and the cold stays locked up in Scandinavia.

http://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS now desperately trying to redeem itself well into FI. Its trend is somewhat similar to the ECM with troughing digging far south into the Atlantic.

 

I get the sense that despite all the chaos afoot, we're actually seeing some resolution here on the fact that later next week the amplification just doesn't look to be in the right place for us to benefit unless we get very lucky with shortwave behaviour, but as we head further into December, there's ever increasing support for the location of the mean amplified ridges and troughs to become better placed for us to receive some decent winter weather.

While waiting for the transitions to deliver something interesting, we'll be stuck under whatever weather system pays us a visit for a fair few days. With a UK trough it seems we have something like a 1/8 chance of being both on the cold side and under cold enough air for snow to fall to low levels in the south. Perhaps a 1/6 chance of something good enough for low levels in the north. The rest of probability covers near average or even above average temperatures and a fair bit of rain... not desirable even for a storm appreciator like me; the past few winters have delivered enough of that to keep me contended for several winters running.

With a UK ridge, we've a good chance of it being chilly or cold with some overnight frost and daytime fog (as a loose estimate - a 3 in 5 chance), failing that it could be somewhat mild and rather cloudy but with all the signs of amplification via tropical and stratospheric forcing, I reckon this would be more likely to be restricted to northern parts if anywhere in the UK at all.

So... I'll take the ECM 12z please, but only so long as further amplification and a build of HLB is in store in the days and weeks to follow 

[Mucka]

This is far from over yet.

Around 50% of GFS ensembles manage some kind of Northerly from the mid term and a few more still a delayed Northerly.

tomorrow is another day.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Nightmare. You're exaggerating.

Agreed, this time last year was a nightmare + December, I'm seeing much more seasonal charts with at least some cold, frost, and snow in the mix.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Well, the new ECM32 run does not have much promise of anything other than high pressure over/near the UK. That's just going by the precip anomalies. Troughing in Europe looks likely and the cold stays locked up in Scandinavia.

http://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

The last week ok to me.- suggests heights to the NW and a Trough to the SE.

[bradymk]

While we wait for some more news on the weeklies,

Here are today's updated JMA long range ensembles, still looking good...

week 2

Week 3&4

The 12z JMA op too....we can dream

Edited November 24, 2016 by bradythemole

[Mucka]

Why not go t bed on tonight's JMA extended.

 

Sweet dreams all. 

[Summer Sun]

ECM 28th to 4th

Temps slightly below average for most -  below average rain 

5th to 18th signals are fairly weak for temps and rain

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

While we wait for some more news on the weeklies,

Here are today's updated JMA long range ensembles, still looking good...

week 2

Week 3&4

Yes, that looks a corker for weeks 3 and 4, fairly strong signal for that range.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

While we wait for some more news on the weeklies,

Here are today's updated JMA long range ensembles, still looking good...

week 2

Week 3&4

Week 3 and 4 look great, suits me to get the best charts mid Dec when daylight is at the shortest.

im pretty confident the EC46 will follow GLOSEA and still go with blocking in a few weeks, pref too NE like has been rearing its head occasionally in FI in the last few days.

Edited November 24, 2016 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

As mucka says, lots of interest still for a northerly outbreak on the gefs. Too many to call this a non starter. 

Edited November 24, 2016 by karlos1983

[booferking]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

This is far from over yet.

Around 50% of GFS ensembles manage some kind of Northerly from the mid term and a few more still a delayed Northerly.

tomorrow is another day.

Had a quick look myself it looks to be more the 50% i will wait until the morning to throw the towel.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

As mucka says, lots of interest still for a northerly outbreak on the gefs. Too many to call this a non starter. 

 

Yes, while worrying my pants off about LR models, the GEFS have upgraded slightly again.

[Gael_Force]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

This is far from over yet.

Around 50% of GFS ensembles manage some kind of Northerly from the mid term and a few more still a delayed Northerly.

tomorrow is another day.

Knocker posted the NOAA anomaly chart a few pages back. It shows a northerly of sorts for first few days of December so I guess they were going with earlier GFS runs. Maybe all change tomorrow.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

As mucka says, lots of interest still for a northerly outbreak on the gefs. Too many to call this a non starter. 

That's actually an upgrade, great charts....sleep and a new day will bring winter charts I think!!

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, while worrying my pants off about LR models, the GEFS have upgraded slightly again.

It's understandable though, it's not even winter yet, but it feels like we're 2 months in already! It's been a relentless month of model watching so far. 

Think ive lost the plot around 12 times so far 

Edited November 24, 2016 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

The problem is they are still all going to be flat in FI, just the timeframe when we need to be seeing some amplification.

Meanwhile a distinct split in the EPS with a good few showing significant cold spell but again even those are trending mild right at the end.

Edited November 24, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[cheshire snow]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, while worrying my pants off about LR models, the GEFS have upgraded slightly again.

Why are you worrying Feb? If

It was November 2015 I would be worried two,strange though if these charts had been showing last December the forum would have been in meltdown.

C.S

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, Mucka said:

This is far from over yet.

Around 50% of GFS ensembles manage some kind of Northerly from the mid term and a few more still a delayed Northerly.

tomorrow is another day.

The GEFS have been just as bad as the Op and control. There will be no Northerly first week of December.

[karlos1983]

Someone give the monthly update so I can sleep 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Why are you worrying Feb? If

It was November 2015 I would be worried two,strange though if these charts had been showing last December the forum would have been in meltdown.

C.S

But the last few years we have known that any decent cold was more likely by way of a late or lateish SSW so ypu accept you've got minimal window from the start, the best chance is now this year and if we blow it.....