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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, bradythemole said:

Some ECM weekly updates, still looking very good mid December...

IMG_3186.JPG

Was that the same ECM which has progged cold at the end of the rainbow for the last few weeks? Don't mind me I'm in a rather snippy mood, I'll be back to my normal happy self in the morning.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

The gfs ops are absolutely all over the place to be quite frank. For the sake of my sanity I am going to ditch the gfs for the foreseeable and just concentrate on ecm. An abysmal start to the season for the gfs. Reminds me of the bad old days from 10 years plus ago.

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That's last thursdays run?

haha yep noticed as soon as i posted! sorry guys, got a bit excited too quickly ;)  delete mods!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, blizzard81 said:

The gfs ops are absolutely all over the place to be quite frank. For the sake of my sanity I am going to ditch the gfs for the foreseeable and just concentrate on ecm. An abysmal start to the season for the gfs. Reminds me of the bad old days from 10 years plus ago.

Aren't you sticking around for the deep FI fantasy Northerly? :ball-santa-emoji:

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
13 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Well if the ECM and GFS 18z is anywhere near the mark the Met Office's talk of wet and windy weather for the second half of next week looks way off.

Settled, dry and cold looks the order of the day for the foreseeable.....until all the models flip back to a GFS 6z type solution in the morning!  :cold:

Maybe they ain't too far off...

gfsnh-0-228.png?18

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The gfs ops are absolutely all over the place to be quite frank. For the sake of my sanity I am going to ditch the gfs for the foreseeable and just concentrate on ecm. An abysmal start to the season for the gfs. Reminds me of the bad old days from 10 years plus ago.

Don't let the negative's creep in,it's still November,take a break,i am gunna:D

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Was that the same ECM which has progged cold at the end of the rainbow for the last few weeks? Don't mind me I'm in a rather snippy mood, I'll be back to my normal happy self in the morning.

Yes Nick agree, but either way its still a well respected model and the EC weeklies are probably one of the most used model for longer range forecasting. But yes its performance still isn't perfect but lets be honest, which model is at the moment? Just another model that we can add to the discussion i suppose. Either way, it was last weeks run!!

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

A strong and zonal jet across the far North Atlantic between New Foundland and UK/EIRE through next week and beyond into following weekend on the 18z kind of scuppering chances to get enough amplification to pull proper cold arctic air south across the UK.

Hopefully Black Friday model output will offer some better festive promotions that coldies can't refuse to snap up!

Edited by Nick F
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

A strong and zonal jet across the far North Atlantic between New Foundland through next week and beyond into following weekend on the 18z kind of scuppering chances to get enough amplification to pull proper cold arctic air south across the UK.

Hopefully Black Friday model output will offer some better festive promotions that coldies can't refuse to snap up!

Hopefully a white Friday come a week tomorrow:)

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Popular Post
Posted

Well today has been a classic on Netweather.  The full house of good and bad runs, toys being lobbed left, right and centre and the GFS has once again been left with egg on its face! However, there are many reasons to be cheerful

  • Today's bad runs would have been last years good runs
  • Massive volatility which could result in a quick turnaround
  • PV all over the show
  • IT'S ONLY NOVEMBER 24TH
  • FI on the the pub run is looking great!!!!

gfsnh-0-276.png

Tomorrows runs maybe crap, but its only the weather. Watch the news for 10 minutes to get some perspective then come back onto Netweather and enjoy this rollercoaster ride.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hopefully a white Friday come a week tomorrow:)

perhaps a white Tuesday 6th Dec for some up north on 18z, finally it gets a token northerly in as the flow amplifies upstream

Edited by Nick F
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Excellent run to run consistency from GFS, I think we can confidently predict Decembers weather now.

gfsnh-0-348.png?12gfsnh-0-336.png?18

I am Mr facetious today.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The GFS now desperately trying to redeem itself well into FI. Its trend is somewhat similar to the ECM with troughing digging far south into the Atlantic.

 

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted (edited)

BA was talking earlier about the building aleutians ridge in the ENS, and how this could be one of the things that is causing so much uncertainty in the models.

This EC ENS graph really shows the big change over the aleutians in the next two weeks or so!

Pretty strong negative anomaly back at start/mid of november to a strong positive anomaly by first week December. Big changes in the Pacific next week.

IMG_3187.JPG

Edited by bradythemole
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Banbury said:

gfsnh-0-336.png?18

Lovely recovery deep into extra time

That ties in with the last EC46, lets hope this one keeps the same thing, then you could say we have x model support of sorts!!!!!    really straw clutching now.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

perhaps a white Tuesday 6th Dec for some up north on 18z, finally it gets a token northerly in as the flow amplifies upstream

granted

then from here in onward,an easterly,another solution into the ensembles then,lets see what happens.

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

gfsnh-0-336.png?18

Lovely recovery deep into extra time

The problem is, FI on the GFS at the moment is around 18hrs

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

The strat charts are really crap at the end of the runs lately as well, this is really turning into a nightmare.

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

Completely pointless posting this other than for the comedy value...

GFS 18z t384 gfsnh-0-384.png?18

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Ravelin said:

Completely pointless posting this other than for the comedy value...

GFS 18z t384 gfsnh-0-384.png?18

And even then it gives you crap uppers.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Let's see what tomorrow brings. For me the ECM hasn't worsened it has edged a tad more workable and the GFS has moved away from a potential arctic lock in.  Far from resolved and I think we'll see more jostling around but with further hints of 'on cold side of average' weather to be had.  

As mentioned earlier timing is to be erred but I'm still not concerned about the earlier ECM but equally not anticipating 2010

Good night for now....see ya in the morning.

 

Just quickly browsed the NetW LRF........take note of Scandi HP thoughts in Jan....;)....I did

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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