Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Grimers]

Just now, Nick L said:

Yes, I have access to the 3 hourly data through work.

Ok, is that model available to the public?

[Nick L]

Just now, Grimers said:

Ok, is that model available to the public?

Sorry I misread your post, no, not publicly available I'm afraid.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Is this using a detailed model that's available to the public?

yes Will! Nick posted that when on ours it was only upto +120, but let's hope Sunday's deluge will move through very early, say 3-7am

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Grimers said:

Ok, is that model available to the public?

This is a 6 hourly one of the same model, it goes to 132 hours so the storm will come into range tomorrow - it has wind vectors on the PPN chart.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/

[Chris.R]

I always thought EC was just an abbreviation of ECMWF, like ECM?

[gottolovethisweather]

47 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z ensembles (Central England)

A slow decline in temps through the last week of November and just the hint of a cold signal at the death. Let's hope for that signal to sharpen up and get brought forward.

 

 

It looks likely that most of us will get a 4-5 cold spell at worst out of this second colder than average incursion then, going by them. By the 21st November, anything could develop beyond that too for coldies, the cooler spell (wintriness about for best part of the UK on one day at least) might be over by then or might yet extend further into deep FI. With round three possible due before November is out. Exciting times ahead, whatever! 

Edited November 14, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

this op run is quite different to the pre existing solutions from other models and the last couple ecm runs so perhaps best to wait for the para later to see if it has support 

[Frosty.]

Great to see snow on the Gfs 12z map later this week with wintry showers even across southern uk along with widespread frosts, becoming significantly colder through the second half of this week from the NW, especially cold for scotland where disruptive snow could occur on hills and even a spell of leading edge snow for a time across scotland during the weekend as a low pushes in from the southwest..not bad at all considering its still autumn!

Edited November 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

this op run is quite different to the pre existing solutions from other models and the last couple ecm runs so perhaps best to wait for the para later to see if it has support 

Looks suspect as early as day 5 to me blue. 

[Mucka]

 

Oh dear, commentators curse, let's hope it is an outlier.

[Nick L]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I always thought EC was just an abbreviation of ECMWF, like ECM?

It is, crossed wires galore here

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks suspect as early as day 5 to me blue. 

certainly not going to get an atlantic undercut at the end of this run!

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Just now, bluearmy said:

certainly not going to get an atlantic undercut at the end of this run!

Nope! 

[Ali1977]

Just now, CreweCold said:

 

Nope! 

Nope , that has thrown a spanner in the works for this evening!! Strange!!

[Mucka]

JMA is different again by 192 which adds to the uncertainty a little but it in no way backs ECM which is good news.

Definitely an evening wobble though.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Mucka

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure one was ever in the script (realistically). Polar Maritime followed by nothingness(ish) followed by regression (hopefully) at the end of the month looks to me the most likely route to cold.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 

Nope! 

Lets hope this run is way off the mark. I remember Fergie earlier today alluding to two possible outcomes after this weekend. One being the more blocked solution and the other being the less palatable standard fare of trough/ridge. Looks like ecm 12z op going with the latter unfortunately.

[Frosty.]

Considering its still autumn for another few weeks, the Ecm 12z looks pretty good to me if you like cold weather. There are likely to be wintry showers even reaching the south later this week and considerable hill snow for high ground of central and northern uk along with widespread frosts..even if it was winter I'd be pleased with these charts.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Will some kind soul post the ECM postage stamps when they're out please?

[Summer Sun]

3rd run in a row from GEM which shows slightly milder air from Sunday onwards

[Geordiesnow]

One thing worth noting is the ECM is still forecasting a fairly rapidly deepening area of low pressure, no doubt details will change as there is disagreement and all but the potential is still there for Sunday to be quite a windy day with severe gales certainly not out of the question.

I don't see too much wrong with the ECM, quite simply the bit of vortex drops from Hudson towards Greenland which means the PV gains strength therefore any ridging collapses and we end up quite flat at the end.

I keep harping on about it but I just don't see much signs of the PV loosening its grip, yes its weaker and its not the strongest PV you will see but the reality is, no model run(apart from a couple low res GFS FI Runs) is really indicating at any Greenland highs as of yet and I don't actually see an awful lot of true blocking either with the exception of the Russian high which is useless and a waste of time really.

[blizzard81]

The ecm day 10 chart is nowhere near as bad as I thought it would look. If you look carefully, pressure looks set to rise just east of Iceland and cold uppers advance southwards across Scandi between day 9 and 10. Ironically enough, it could end up giving the UK a much better cold set up at days 12 to 15.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

3rd run in a row from GEM which shows slightly milder air from Sunday onwards

And 3rd time wrong probably too!

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

And 3rd time wrong probably too!

Can you elaborate please Karl?....intuition?.....other model data?, out of sinc with previous GEM data?,or just a one-liner? 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

if  the  models  are  right  things  could  start  they  interesting  at the  end  of  the  month  !!!!